Hate or madness?

It is indeed too early to jump to conclusions but the mass killings in San Bernardino, California, raise a number of very worrisome questions. And these are not just about the access to weapons in the US. They would certainly be related to the growing culture of hatred we see taking roots in our societies. Is it so, or are dealing with another isolated drama? 

Dealing with the terrorists in a comprehensive manner

The number of players against the terrorists of the Islamic State is increasing by the day. There is a growing military engagement from the West in Syria and Iraq, in addition to the forces committed by the region and by Russia. There is even some military coordination with Assad in Damascus.

All this is fine. It shows the extraordinary concern that is shared by a good number of countries. IS represents indeed a very serious challenge to the region and to our part of the world as well. It has to be defeated. But I am afraid that the military response might not be enough to settle this major challenge. Even if we take into account the forthcoming deployment of some US Special Forces units, a decision that should be supported.

The military response is the easy response to IS. We need a political strategy too. And I can´t see it, neither in Baghdad nor in Damascus and even less so in Europe.

People say the comprehensive strategy will come. Good. In meantime, we should understand that this crisis is a long term affair. 

AIDS remains a major problem

The big names in the media have a full plate these days. Too many things going on, from the climate change meeting to Russia passing through Turkey…Therefore, there was no striking mention of today´s World AIDS Day. Pity. AIDS remains a major issue for many people and a major cause of impoverishment for communities that are already struggling. It cannot be forgotten. Once a year, at least, AIDS has to be part of the headlines. 

There is some hope in Paris

There is a fresh breeze of optimism at the beginning of climate change conference. The world leaders’ meeting of today heard quite a number of nice words about the possibility of an agreement by the end of COP 21.

Let´s hope that will be the case. And that some kind of an accepted monitoring mechanism is put in place to keep track of the commitments made by more than 180 States, those that have already prepared a national plan on renewable energy.

The final document might not be a binding agreement. It might be just a shared pledge. But the monitoring system will help a lot in terms of naming and shaming those countries that might get off-track.

It is also important that the major world corporations be invited to commit themselves to the goals of carbon reduction and to invest on cleaner production and commercial processes. They can play a major role. Moreover, by going green they might be able to make some additional bucks. There is indeed a lot of money to be made during the next few years of new technologies, on research and development, and on marketing blue and green products and services.

Celebrating the Pope in Bangui

The visit of Pope Francis to Bangui should be highly commended. He took the right decision, notwithstanding all the advice he got, from different countries and institutions, against such a visit on grounds of security. He has shown that leaders ought to be brave. That´s what people expect from leaders. He has also sent the message that conflicts, even very dramatic crisis like the one the Central African Republic experienced during the last two or three years, can only be solved if national efforts are supported by the international community. And that should be the case in CAR.

It was also very sad to see that the media keeps referring to religion and religious differences as the causes of violence in the country. The issue is much deeper. Religion is just a tag, an identification of sides in conflict. The true issues have to do with migrations into the country of pastoralists from much further North, deforestation and climate change, threats to traditional farming, livelihoods, and chaotic urbanization. And on top of all that, very low level leaders for decades, very often with the protection of political elites from Europe.

My fear is that once Pope Francis has left Bangui the country will fall back into the dark well of forgetfulness. It has been in that realm for so long. 

Getting ready for the EU-Turkey Summit

The next summit between the EU and Turkey will take place this Sunday in Brussels. The key issue, on the European agenda, is about migrations and the role the government of Ankara could play to control the flux from Turkey to Europe.

Turkey will be represented by its Prime Minister, Ahmet Davutoğlu. He is a smart negotiator. He knows he comes to Brussels in a strong position and he will take advantage of that to try to obtain as many concessions from the Europeans as possible. He wants more money to compensate Turkey´s for the refugee presence in the country, visa facilities for the Turks, and a firmer calendar for the negotiations related to his country´s accession to full EU membership.

The EU side should balance the Turkish position with a couple of requests that will put Davutoğlu at his place. The Europeans should remind him that freedom of the press is a critical criteria for European membership. On this, Turkey is going squarely in the wrong direction. They should also recall that human rights and the rights of the minorities are key pillars in any democracy. They have to be enshrined on the Constitution and fully implemented.

These reminders would level off the discussion. They will also show the Turks we see them as important partners but we are not afraid of talking the talk and be frank. That´s how diplomacy needs to be carried out in the days of now.   

Wishing the new Portuguese government well

We have now a new government in Portugal. It is a Socialist-based team but with the support of two left-wing parties, as they like to call themselves: the Leftist Block, some kind of SYRIZA-like group, and Communist Party, a very Conservative assembly of old and new nostalgic fellows who still believe that the fall of Soviet Union was a major disaster.

However, Antonio Costa, the new Prime-minister has been wise enough to put together a Cabinet that can be perceived as relatively moderate. And in his inaugural speech, Costa made the right use of the word “moderation”.

It is true that not everyone within the Socialist Party is for moderation. But if the leader pulls in the right direction, the rest might follow. They will keep in mind that in our type of democracy one´s political survival is very much related to being able to say yes to the Party leader.

The key question is about Parliamentary support. How long will Costa be able to keep the votes of its allies before a major political row takes place? There will be a fracture, I have no doubt about it. The point is that we don´t know how soon it will happen.

In the meantime, one should wish the new ministers good sailing, favourable winds. 

Politics are about choices

Moderation and alliances should be the key drivers in international politics. Moderation can only be based on principles and values. And alliances are only to be sought with those who share the principles and values that guide our own actions.

Russia should follow a diplomatic approach

It would be a serious misjudgment to ignore the gravity of today´s incident between Turkey and Russia. Both countries are led by hawks and when that type of birds clash one gets hurt. It is therefore in our interest, as NATO allies, and in the interest of a political solution to the conflict in Syria to help both sides to de-escalate the confrontation.

One can expect a political response from the Russian side. And that´s acceptable. But it should remain a diplomatic move. Everything beyond that could easily get out of control. 

Brussels is living in slow motion

The state of high alert will continue for a third day tomorrow in Brussels. We will start the new week in slow motion. More importantly, the schools, at every level of education, will be closed. We will have to explain to the very young the reasons.

Many people are criticizing the decision to extend the period of alert. They think it is unwarranted, that it only serves the purpose of showing that the government is finally taking action. And they talk about the negative economic impact of such a decision.

In these matters, my advice is clear: let´s trust the authorities. We have no other choice. And we need to believe they are being responsible. In matters of security, to be responsible means to minimize the risk until you understand more precisely the nature of the threat and are in a better position to respond to it.

Let´s believe that´s what is taking place.