Mediating between Saudi Arabia and Iran

If I were the UN Secretary-General, I would immediately dispatch a Personal Envoy to consult with the authorities in Riyadh and Teheran, as well as with the Arab League and the key states in the region. The point is to take the initiative, at a very high level, to reduce the growing tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The SG should do it. And select the Envoy from a pool of respected former Heads of State or Prime Ministers, preferably from Asia.

He has the power and the status to initiate such a move. And he has to be seen as being extremely preoccupied with the aggravating situation in the Middle East. More so, because the new critical developments have a deep negative impact on the very timid and tentative peace processes that are about to start regarding Syria and Yemen. 

Warning Saudi Arabia

One should be very shocked by the mass executions carried out yesterday by the Saudi Arabian authorities. In the eyes of today´s modern world, these killings have every hallmark of excessive punishment. They belong to another epoch and to a primitive way of dealing with human beings. And in the case of the well-known Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, the decision to carry the death sentence on him seems to be based on sectarian grounds as well as on a radical, unacceptable approach to dissent. It is furthermore an extremely aggravating factor to the existing dramatic divisions that the Middle East region is already experiencing.

Those in the West that have publicly expressed their deepest concerns regarding the executions did the noble thing. The regime in Riyadh should receive from each one of its Western allies a strong message of warning and condemnation. That´s the best way to help them to understand that it is time to move away from an outdated and unacceptable way of conducting justice and implementing human rights. 

Happy New Year and bring confidence back

As we start the New Year, we also realise that one the great challenges ahead, as far as the European leaders are concerned, is to regain their credibility. They have to take into account that public opinion is a strategic variable in matters of politics. And they have to endeavour to get the voters ‘confidence back. That should be the main topic of discussion in the political circles as we get into the first working week of 2016.

In the meantime, and just as an example, let me refer that Le Figaro´s edition of today organised a poll on President Hollande´s New Year Message. The daily newspaper got close to 46 thousand responses to the question. 92% of the readers said the message was not convincing. That´s an incredible negative reaction. It´s true that most of those who read Le Figaro are rather on the opposite side of Hollande´s politics. But still, such a percentage is just too revealing: political confidence is one way avenue. Once lost, it is almost impossible to recover.

Just to complement, on this same day another survey has shown that 3 out of every 4 French citizens do not wish either Hollande or Sarkozy to run for the presidency in 2017.

2016 is indeed a very promising year on the leadership side of politics.

Brussels cancels the New Year...

The Brussels mayor has just decided to cancel tomorrow´s fireworks and other street celebrations that were planned for New Year´s night.

A lot of people seem to be shocked by the decision. They basically argue that it gives up to all those who aim at destroying our way of life. They see it as capitulation.

My advice is to accept it and also to consider that such a decision was certainly not taken lightly. I see behind it a lot of ponderation, analysis and discussion among people who know the situation.

Actually, if we take into account that the mayor opted for it, notwithstanding the many costs it carries, including those related to the reputation of the city, we should also conclude that the menaces are much more real than what we had thought. And such conclusion is certainly a matter of concern. 

Model politician 2015

My question of yesterday about the model politician in 2015 has been responded to by a number of friends. And obviously, Angela Merkel and Pope Francis came out as this year´s top leaders.

I am certainly in agreement. But for different reasons, I found John Kerry the most inspiring politician of the year. He is no longer a young man. At his age, many would be writing their memories or playing golf.

Not John Kerry. He has shown energy, determination, optimism. He has achieved results in an environment, both domestic and international, that was far from favourable. I decided therefore to recognise his untiring efforts in the opinion piece I have just written and that will be published in tomorrow´s edition of the Visão magazine in Portugal. 

Who should be considered the model politician in 2015?

Close to the end of the year, I ask myself who should be considered the model politician in 2015.

I have a small number of names in mind. And I realise how much this list is influenced by the big global TV channels. The faces we see more often on those screens have a greater chance of being considered the top players. We tend to forget that some of these politicians produce a lot of smoke and know how to play the mirrors game. But in the end, they had very little impact in terms of improving people´s lives. They might have made things even more complicated.

Who to choose then? 

Poland is adding new challenges to the EU

Poland´s new political situation, with the Law and Justice Party (PiS) as the governing force, was the top headline in today´s Le Monde. The French newspaper, a reference daily for many in Europe, focussed its analysis and comments on the PiS-supported government´s efforts to take control of the Constitutional Court of Poland and on its very conservative, nationalistic and authoritarian political agenda. It also made reference to the new approach being followed in Warsaw towards the EU. That approach is certainly perceived as not very constructive and is clearly clashing with the policies adopted by the EU institutions and most of the member states.

Poland´s new leaders will bring additional challenges in 2016 to the European project. There was no need for that addition. But it has to be taken into account as the country is an important player within the Union.

MENA´s challenges

The total population of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is close to 400 million. Of those, more than 50% are under the age of 25. And a very good number of these young people have no jobs. In Saudi Arabia, for instance, the youth unemployment rate is about 28% and this figure is most likely grossly underestimated. And Saudi Arabia is one of the best in the pack…

Furthermore, during the last 15 years or so there has been a very rapid expansion of the number of university graduates throughout the region. In many cases, the university degrees they obtained have only very weak links with the market needs. But the fact of the matter is that the economies of the region – in those countries that still have a working economy – are not able to respond to the job demands.

There is plenty of youth frustration. And this is now a frustration in urban settings as MENA has one of the highest urbanization rates in the world. Frustration of city dwellers leads to the most explosive type of rebellion.

Furthermore, the population growth rate, which is around 2% per annum, is only second to the one in Africa. The numbers are moving fast. They add additional complications to a situation that is already particularly challenging.

Regional leaders seem to be looking elsewhere. And we, in our part of the world, prefer to focus on the symptoms. And not to engage in a meaningful dialogue with them.

Good examples coming from Spain

The Spanish general elections revealed a very high participation rate – close to 73% - a strong support to two grassroots movements, one at the left of the spectrum, Podemos, and the other at the centre, Ciudadanos. The conclusion is that Spaniards feel committed to parliamentary democracy and want to be heard. As a result, there is a true renewal in the political circles. This should be example to be followed by other European countries, including France next door.

It is also a fact that the outcome of the elections has brought some serious fragmentation to Parliament. But I see that as a positive move. It will require the parties to seek alliances and compromises. And that´s how politics in the EU member states should be. 

Syria: the key Foreign ministers should remain closely engaged

One can have plenty of doubts about the realism and feasibility of the UN Security Council resolution on Syria, adopted yesterday. However, in view of the extreme complex situation the country is going through, a situation that has lasted now for too long, any move by the UN should be appreciated and encouraged. Particularly this one that has been discussed at the level of Foreign ministers. Actually, the continued personal involvement of the ministers will be required as we go into the implementation phase. That´s the best way to ensure that they see this process as being under their direct responsibility. The UN Special Envoy, Staffan de Mistura, can be the personification of the international community´s commitment to Syria. But he will need the unswerving support of the key ministers. That will be key for any progress to take place.