The most important question of the day

What kind of post-covid world is it in the making? That is the key question that should be in many minds. That is the debate that needs to take place. With realism and balance, with tolerance but accepting all types of opinions. The answer is obviously a complex one. And certainly not a positive one unless we can convince the leaders to change course. I doubt. The crisis is too big and most of them just want to throw money at it to minimise its effects. That is not change, that is not innovation. It is just the continuation of the recent trends, with all their shortcomings.

Fighting the extremes

Polarisation and radicalisation of views might become two of the main consequences of the current health tsunami. People will withdraw into their little familiar spaces and will end up by seeing everybody who is outside of the small circle as a potential threat. Everyone will be perceived as either belonging or being a stranger. In the best of cases, they will look at them with a great dose of indifference. Political activists, from both extremes will try to take advantage of those feelings. There is a serious risk of seeing the extremist positions becoming more combative. The point is to be able to spot such trends early enough and be able to decry them. There are many tasks ahead, in these extraordinarily complex times. One of them is for sure to oppose any move towards radicalisation and identity politics.

Daring times

Many thinkers in our part of the world are advocating for a changed world. They are convinced the current global health crisis is a golden opportunity to build a more reasonable future. On the same vein, the UN Secretary-General is also talking about a “better world”.

I certainly would support an approach that would reduce the fragilities many people are exposed to and respect the environmental balance we all know it is needed. The big question is, however, how can we do it with the same old leaders? If there is no change in leadership, the chances we will see a transformation are extremely limited. Therefore, the point is to challenge the current leadership.

How feasible is that?

My question should not be seen as giving up. I am convinced it is important to draw lessons from the crisis and battle for them to influence the next choice of options. We are facing the first global crisis of the modern times. This is a global world with a global shock and a common set of deep problems. We have in our hands a unique opportunity to think differently and act otherwise. The UN should take the lead and set up a set of proposals for the consideration of the world leaders. It might not be heard to at the beginning. But it could rapidly generate enough popular traction and then the political leaders would have to take those ideas into account.

This is no time to be short in ambition and frightened by crazy people in power. It is just the opposite that must happen. It is time to show we can respond to the call of the future.   

The UN Charter and its long history

75 years ago, visionary leaders have signed the UN Charter and initiated what they thought would be a world without major wars. Their dream has not been fully realised but the Charter remains a solid pillar of the international order. We cannot discuss international affairs without referring to it. And the UN System is still around and doing important things in some key areas, such as peacekeeping, humanitarian and development assistance, and the promotion of justice and human rights. It could do much more, no doubt. But it is not easy, because of the deep antagonisms that currently exist within the Security Council and the lack of support for multilateral solutions, an approach that is particularly strong in Washington and Moscow. This unfavourable reality might change as we go into 2021, but the shift might not be as deep and wide as some expect. In my view, the best option is to bet on a stronger voice coming from the system itself. Experience has taught me that when the UN leaders opt for an independent and principled approach, they regain the initiative and augment their credibility. For that to happen, they must think about the function they are supposed to perform and less about themselves.

It is true we live an extraordinary complex moment. But the 75 years of presence in the world affairs remind us that history is long and can be better than the difficulties and the pessimism of the times.

We must be able to convince

The cooperation between nations has been seriously impacted by the current crisis. Each country decided the best way to battle the pandemic was to close the borders and focus on the its domestic issues. Such an approach can somehow work if the country is wealthy with a modern, extensive, and diversified economy. Australia is a good example. Even Norway, at a much smaller case, can also be mention as an example. But every country, rich or poor, depends on international trade, investments, or development aid. These three areas have lost speed. They will take quite a bit of time to recover. But above all, we must insist that today’s and tomorrow’s world can only address the issues of recovery, peace and security, climate change, and poverty, if countries cooperate and see themselves as part of a community of nations with a common destiny. The United Nations System and all the regional arrangements must regain their credibility. The challenge in this case is to be able to lead the narrative about a better world. It must be a convincing one, based on a constructive and balanced approach. Most of the visions that are being shared are not seen as balanced. They create a lot of fear in the minds and hearts of those who control economic power and the information networks. That is the reason why they do not get to the front pages. It is time to be a bit smarter when talking about the world we all need to put in place.

Our current tsunami

We cannot look at tomorrow’s world with yesterday’s eyes. But that is what most of us are doing because that is the way we feel more confident. We know there is a major transformation taking place these days. However, we keep hoping that the future will be just a copy of the past, with some adjustments, we can accept that, and nothing else.

I am afraid it will not. This pandemic is a major shock for every nation. It is, at the same time, a global and a local tsunami.

Screen politics

I call it TV democracy. People spend years watching superficial and foolish things on their TV screens – most of the channels are just light on substance and short on comprehensiveness – and then acquire a simple and biased view of public life. They are therefore ready to vote for people like Donald Trump or Jair Bolsonaro, meaning, for simple minds that speak to the most common stereotypes and views. Those elected have the legitimacy the polls give to the winners. But they do not possess the knowledge and the experience that are required to lead a country. They know that. They react to it through arrogance and a fighting stance. And they keep implementing demagogic and inflammatory policies, to hide their weaknesses and respond to the primary feelings of the TV watchers. Their leadership is based on showmanship, on theatrics, and on headlines.

This ends up by eroding the democratic institutions and creating deep fractures within the nation. These leaders are expert dividers, specialists on managing people’s passions and instincts.

TV democracy is a serious threat to national progress, social cohesion, and stability. Unfortunately, in many countries, we seem to be moving in such a direction.

Pandemic and confusing days

The pandemic is still moving around, in our corner of the world. It is not just a problem in the Americas or elsewhere. It should continue to be seen as a dramatic challenge we all face, everywhere. European countries are opening up. But it would be a mistake to believe we are out of the woods. Every measure of prudence must be adhered to. And governments cannot stop the health education campaigns around the Covid. Better, they must be clear in their messages. And the strongest messages are about wearing masks, keeping a distance and avoid crowds, all types of crowds.

I know we are requested to find a balance between health and the economy. I am for the opening of the economic activities, including international travel. However, all of this must be implemented with a deep sense of civic and personal responsibility. Politicians, associations, and every citizen carry a good deal of responsibility. The roles and expectations must be clearly defined. Then, we know what to demand from each one. And what are the red lines we must follow.

There is a great concern with the economic recovery. In most European countries that is the main worry. I fully understand it. The shock is very deep, and the prospects of recovery are uneven, at best. In some countries, with weaker and less diversified productive basis, the prospects are indeed very sombre. I think the quickest way to recover is to let people be responsible in an environment that respects the sanitary norms and, at the same time, gives each one of us a chance to live in the “new normal” and take charge of our own destiny. This no time for unjustified constraints, beyond those that have a scientific reason.

It is also no time to keep children out of the schools. They must go back to a safe and well-organised classroom. They need to be in contact with their age group and their little friends. That is how the socialisation and the learning happen.

A complex strategic game between China and India

The recent brutal border clashes between China and India caused about 20 deaths on the Indian side and an unknown number of casualties on Chinese camp. People might not know, but no bullet was fired by the opposing armies. There is a compromise between the two countries not to shoot at the other side. The soldiers fought hand-to-hand, with clubs embedded with nails or barbed wire, and other blunt weapons and rocks. Some of the Indian men were pushed into the icy waters of the Galwan river or over the mountain ridges.

That was a vicious confrontation, that brings us back to ancient practices. But it is a good illustration of the strategic rivalry that is developing between these two giants, both armed with sophisticated weaponry and nuclear capabilities. At the local level, in their border disputes – there are at least three fronts where those disputes are continually active – they go for sticks and nails. At the diplomatic level, they play the complex game of subtle threats combined with frequent high-level meetings and, on the Indian side, a special relationship with the United States, a matter that is seen as a major issue by the Chinese.

It is fascinating geopolitics but not for those who fight in the cold of the Himalayas.

We are going back the big way

If I had to select a piece of today’s news, I would go for the WHO Director-General’s warning that the pandemic is still growing in many parts of the world. It has now reached every nation. Many countries are now at a standstill. In some of them, even internal travel is not allowed.

Poverty is expanding rapidly in developing countries. The world is losing what it gained in decades of development assistance. It hurts to acknowledge such a fact, particularly for someone who spent decades in the development line of work. The only hope is that once the pandemic is under control the know-how that has been created in those countries all these past years will be mobilised for a quick recovery. For that to happen, those countries will need major capital injections. The international institutions will have to be the key advocates of such assistance.