Nigeria´s electoral process is moving better than anticipated

So far, so good! That´s the happy comment one can make tonight regarding the presidential elections in Nigeria. The process might have had some flaws but for now both key candidates seem prepared to accept the outcome of the elections. Outgoing President Goodluck Jonathan has surprised us with his mature acceptance of defeat. He has congratulate his opponent, the yet-to-be-officially declared winner, general Buhari. This is a great move by someone that has been a messy president but, in the end, has shown great sense of duty and a strong commitment to a peaceful transition in Nigeria. 

Tunisia should count with the European support

The popular rally against terrorism that today brought thousands of people to the main avenues of the Tunisian capital should be seen as a sign of hope. I am also pleased to see François Hollande and Matteo Renzi among the crowd. European leaders have to be seen as supporting the struggle of the Tunisian people against all types of violent extremists. 

Poor weather in the EU capital

Poor weather in Brussels today. Time thus to get ready for my quarterly meeting on peace building. And to realise that there is no strategy, in my part of the world, to deal with the current turmoil in the Middle East. More than ever, the piecemeal approach is the one that dictates the policy. Even so, I am not sure we have a clear policy for each case that is developing in the region. Maybe influenced by the weather, I come to the conclusion that the approaches we are now following are very tentative and full of messy actions. With the exception, maybe, of the dialogue with Iran on the nuclear issues. But the nuclear package is only one dimension of what our Iranian policy should be. Are we connecting it with the rest?

Yemen needs dialogue not bombs

It´s not a great idea to have a coalition of Sunni Arab states deeply involved in war operations inside Yemen. They are fighting the Shia-inspired Houthi rebels, who are seen as promoting Iran´s interests in the vital region that Yemen controls. But they have never engaged any action against the extremists of Al-Qaeda who have been operating in Yemen for a number of years and are a real threat to regional peace and stability.

Yemen is now a chaotic state. It needs all support it can get to bring the different ethnic and religious factions to the dialogue table and also to effectively combat the extremists. These are indeed the couple of priorities that should be in the minds of those who have some kind of influence in the region. 

Guinea-Bissau

One of the forgotten countries is Guinea-Bissau, in West Africa. It has been in and out of crisis for the last seventeen years or so. Furthermore, it’s a tiny country with very little strategic interest. It was therefore easy to ignore it and to be blind to the plight of its population.

In Brussels today, after many years of hesitation, there has been a donors ‘meeting on Guinea-Bissau. The preliminary outcome is encouraging. The door for re-engagement has been open. The next step is to make sure that the commitments made by both sides, the government and the external partners, are indeed implemented. So often, these undertakings remain unfulfilled or are to slow to implement. And the blame game starts.

Let´s hope this time we will see a faster move. The people of Guinea-Bissau would certainly deserve it. 

Mourning

Today´s crash of a German airplane on the French Alps is very much in the news in our part of the world. The shock is deep. Everyone thinks of the families that have been so dramatically affected, in particular those parents who have lost their children in the accident.

 It is time to mourn. It is also time to call for a full disclosure of the findings once the investigation on the crash has been completed. People have the right to know. And so often people think that in these matters they are kept away from the truth of the facts. 

France is a pillar of the European project, it cannot fail

There has been, in the EU circles, serious concern about France´s political future and its impact on the European project. The rise of extremist parties, in particular the Front National, has left many people very worried. More so, in view of President Hollande´s poor leadership. He is definitely considered as too weak and incapable of fighting for a stronger Europe. Not even for a more proactive France within the European project.

But tonight, as the preliminary results of the French regional elections become known, there is a bit of hope. The Front National seems to be close to its electoral ceiling of 25%. And both Sarkozy´s party, on the right, and Hollande´s PS, are ahead of the Front. That´s good news. 

It´s important to finalise the nuclear agreement with Iran

Let´s hope there is a proper agreement with Iran on the nuclear issue. The region needs good news, and a new type of diplomatic relationships.

If there is one, we should trust the judgement of those negotiating it, from the Western side. They are no dupes.  

Greece has to move fast and show results

The Greek government has lost the last month trying to convince the European leaders to accept the merits of its approach to crisis management. In the current situation, a month is a long period of time for the Greeks. It is even longer when you achieve very little. It is hell, when you have empty pockets.

They should have listened to the advice coming from the key EU capitals: no programme implementation, no money. Such advice was repeated in Brussels last night, when a side mini-summit brought together the Greek prime minister, Angela Merkel, François Hollande and a couple of other senior people, Greece was once more invited to cooperate with the rest of the UE. Money was promised. It should be released when the Greeks start moving along the reform path.

Listening today to the Greek Prime Minister I got the impression he has not yet realised that time is running out. Money is getting very thin in the government´s drawers. And the political support they had in Europe is evaporating fast. It would be better for his government and his people to show they can implement the agreed reforms. The sooner they do it the better for them and for Europe´s cohesiveness. 

Supporting Tunisia is in our own European interest

Last week, in the middle of a discussion about the Arab changes and democratisation processes, I made a strong point to my European friends about Tunisia. The line was very simple: we should encourage EU tourists to visit the country as a way of helping the country to overcome the current economic slowdown. We should also put pressure on the travel agencies to bring Tunisia back as a highly recommended destination. And we should recognize the country as an example within the North African region and be clear about our support to its political transformation.

In this context, yesterday´s terrorist action against foreign tourists, with very heavy loss of life, is a major setback, besides being a great tragedy for the victims. If the forces that oppose democratic change and liberty wanted to cause serious damage to Tunisia they managed to achieve their aims yesterday. The tourism sector is now ready to collapse. This will have a deep impact on the country´s economy and it will create additional social hardships.

Our role, as EU friends of the Arab positive change, is to call for more EU assistance to Tunisia, on an extraordinary basis, as a bridging package, to give the country a chance to rebuild its image as a safe destination. Part of such assistance should include a strong security component. We ought to keep in mind that success on the Southern banks of the Mediterranean Sea are vital for our European interests. 

Sad news from the Middle East

The electoral victory of Israel´s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is another piece of bad news for the Middle East. It adds fuel to the existing many crises. The EU and the international community have lost leverage in the region. Tony Blair´s mediation job has been a disaster. The new EU envoy, the Italian diplomat Fernando Gentilini, will have almost no room for manoeuvre. His appointment serves the High Representative’s personal agenda of appointing people loyal to her but brings no political leverage and no hope. In many ways, it is a silent recognition that there is very little the EU can do in the region. I do not see Netanyahu losing any moment of his time talking to the envoy. I actually do not see anyone at this stage able to establish any kind of bridge in the region.