To be committed

This is a time for deeper commitment. Crises and challenges are constant in our competitive world. The only variable is the intellect, the ideas and the will to bring about change. 

Leadership analysis

In a crisis situation, we should start by asking a very basic question: who are the agents of change? 

The solution to any major crisis resides in the empowerment of the right leaders and elites, at the national and local level. It is not just the movers and shakers. It is about those who have the capacity to turn the situation around, if given a chance. Sometimes they might require some external help to be able to play the role that is potentially theirs. 

The opposite, people who only care about their interests and those of their narrow power base, bad leadership is a critical contributing factor to further destabilisation. 

My experience has shown that leadership analysis is indispensable to help us to identify and bring together the political, religious, youth and women leaders as well as the opinion makers. 

In every case, from Mali to the EU, from Pakistan to Portugal.  

On conflicts

Today’s conflicts are complex and asymmetric, thus no crisis can be resolved through a linear approach, with a single silver bullet. Complexity calls for multidimensional responses that should combine military, political and civil instruments. But there is an additional challenge when there are multiple actors responding to a conflict: the coherence of the diverse interventions. Coherence is, very often, missing. Also frequently missing is a clear understanding of the political economy of each conflict. What are the economic and business interests that drive a given conflict? From diamonds to columbite-tantalite (Coltan, as it is known in simpler terms), from opium to khat,  from weapons smuggling to access to water and grazing land - the economics of conflict are key determinants and need to be clearly identified. 

Responding to the British Conservatives

After yesterday’s speech about the future of the UK relationship with the EU, David Cameron addressed today the Davos Forum. He was at pains to explain that the true motive behind the speech of yesterday is about Britain contributing to a stronger Europe. We should take these words at their face value and set up a list of measures we would like the UK to consider as a means of effectively contributing to a stronger Europe.  This would be the best response to his speech and would place the ball on his court.

But who, within the EU, is strong minded and strategic enough to draw such a list? 

Two different visions of the EU

Prime Minister Cameron’s speech on Europe, delivered today, should be read carefully, as it poses a number of issues that contribute to the debate about the future of the EU. It should not be dismissed as just an attempt to unite his Conservative party. Of course, it has also that objective. Many Conservatives have become very anti-EU. They think that’s the best way to be consistent with their nostalgia of a dominant Great Britain of yesteryears. And they add to that a feeling of superiority that is very deeply rooted in the British countryside and traditional elites.

Cameron understands that the EU membership is important for the UK. But as he gives in to the more conservative wing within his party he is also opening a period of uncertainty, that will have an impact on investment – a big multinational will think twice before investing in the UK from now on – and an impact on Europe. This is a matter for great concern. And it will be difficult to reach an agreement between Cameron and the other key European leaders, as both sides have very different visions about what the future of Europe should be. That’s where the real divergence lies. 

The business of politics is to create hope

I saw President Obama’s inauguration pictures and asked myself what did the world leaders think of the large crowd that attended the ceremony, close to a million people? For almost every leader in the planet such a show of spontaneous popular support and enthusiasm would be a dream that can never become true.

Obama might have many opponents in the US. But seen from this side of the world, he still manages to achieve a major feat: to be the symbol of hope for many! And that reminds us that politics is about generating hope!

From North Africa to Syria

The recent incidents in the Sahel have pushed the Syrian crisis into the background. For many, it has even disappeared from the political radar. This is a serious mistake. Notwithstanding the need for action in the Sahel, a position I have advocated for some time, we should keep in mind that the situation in Syria continues to have a dramatic impact on the lives of millions of people and cannot be ignore. Those who have a sense of proportion in the realm of international relations know that the solution of the Syrian tragedy should be a priority. The key actors within the international community cannot hide behind the Sahelian sandstorm.

It is wise to be prudent

Too much snow in our part of Europe transformed this Sunday into a quiet day. However, that did not prevent a couple of leaders from being too excessive about the situation in the Sahel. They sound now like new converts to a cause they are at present magnifying beyond proportions, after so many months spent overlooking the crisis that was in the making.  

It is a very serious threat, no doubt, but it requires a thoughtful approach to it, not an emotional response, as Mr Cameron seems to believe. With good coordination between all the local, regional and key international players, it should be possible to sort things out. Any comparison with Afghanistan is, in my opinion, out of proportions. We cannot compare two very different regional contexts.

Please define a more precise end state!

I was told yesterday that President Hollande defined the eradication of the Islamist terrorists from Mali as the objective of the on-going military campaign. He added that the troops will stay in that African country as long as it is necessary to achieve this goal.

In my opinion, this objective is too vast, dangerously vague as it can lead to a stalemate, a never-ending and unaffordable mission. Furthermore, with time, it has the risk of turning the French public opinion against an operation they support today.

A military intervention like this one needs to have a clear end state.  It should be as short as possible and lead to a political process. It has also to be linked to the actions carried out by others, in the case, by the West African nations as well as by the EU training mission that is being put together. It cannot be taken in isolation. It has also to have a regional dimension. And above all, it cannot ignore that at the end of the day, the ultimate objective is to create the conditions for Mali to take care of its own security and governance. This requires a comprehensive approach and it is much larger than the current military operation by France. This operation, with all its merits, should not be more than a stop-gap in a multidimensional and multi-actor process.

Chadian army in Mali

Chad has sent an initial military contingent to join the West African force that will be deployed in Mali. The Chadian Foreign Minister, Moussa Faki, has also announced that his government would be ready to make available up to 2,000 soldiers for the Malian campaign, if necessary. That would make the Chadian contribution the largest. In any case, it is good news. The National Army of Chad (ANT) is probably the most capable in the region. Only Nigeria compares to it.

ANT was a ragtag assortment of armed men up to 2008. After the rebel incursion of January-February 2008, that brought the Sudanese-sponsored guerrilla groups up the doors of the presidential palace in N’Djamena and has shaken deeply the regime, President Idriss Déby decided to extensively re-organise the armed forces. Some very tough decisions in terms of command and control, discipline and training were taken then. The truth of the matter is that by May 2009 the forces had changed. They could then easily contain another rebel incursion and show a degree of professionalism that was unknown.

In addition, ANT is very much used to operating in terrains that are very similar to Northern Mali. They will feel at home.

The real challenge will be their coordination with the other forces. The Nigerian general that will be the overall operations commander of the West African intervention will have to show serious leadership qualities.