EU Budget: too long a period at a time of uncertainties

I should write about the EU budget 2014-2020, as approved today by the EU Council. And add that even if the total amount matters, what matters more is how money is allocated. How much money goes for the big issues that have a strategic impact over the future of Europe? That’s the key question.

And what are those issues?

First, those related to the economic disparities between different corners of the European space. How can we unite the Continent when some countries and regions are kept far behind in terms of development and the gap keeps increasing?

Second, investments in science and technological research. The future of Europe has to be built on a knowledge economy, not on steel and textiles. Unless, of course, if the textiles are at the sharp end of the creative industries, both in terms of design and advanced materials…

Third, funds and programmes for youth employment promotion, youth education for the jobs of the future, preparing a youth with a European mind-set and a global outlook.  

Fourth, internal security, including cyber-security, and security co-operation with the neighbours of the EU.

Fifth, a common external policy, including an effective development aid agenda and enough resources for humanitarian relief and response.

These are the budget lines we need to look at, as a matter of priority.

Having said that, I am also very concerned about a process that approves financial resources for a long period of time – seven years – when we live in a world that is changing rapidly. It is good to have a long term vision but it is better to have a system that is flexible and can be adjusted to respond to new challenges as they develop. I do not think the EU budgetary process is tailored for that. 

On people and power

The world's political environment has changed rapidly since the beginning of this century. This is in many ways related to the massive access to information and the widespread usage of low cost, accessible means of communication. The democratisation of information enhanced the citizen's awareness, self-esteem, sense of force, public participation and leverage.  Everybody is connected, has an opinion and is not afraid of voicing it, if necessary. Fast, power seems to be a click away from each individual. It has become accessible. This means, for many, a new approach towards power as people got convinced that politics is an easy job, accessible, and that they could as well as be the prime minister of their own country or the secretary-general of the UN. The symbolism and distance of power have been lost and the street turns out to be the new seat of authority.

The fact of the matter is that political leaders can no longer ignore public opinion. Even to pretend to be listening is no longer enough. If you are in charge, you better be on guard and listen!

This change has also influenced the way international affairs are conducted. Here, as in national politics, we notice the emergence of a different approach with the individual – men and women – at the centre of the global concerns. Let's take as an example the area of security, as this is a field where the concepts of sovereignty and national security, which are vague and distant for each person, have always dominated. As we moved deeper into the new century, the emphasis on human security, which is about protecting each one of us from all kinds of threats, gained ground and became an important component of the international debate.

In different words, the individual is now the main feature of the new political paradigm, both on the domestic and the international front: the citizen matters more than ever. Policy is defined taking each one of us in mind. At least, it should be, if one wants to remain in power. 

The first decade of the 21st century ended up by being deeply traumatised by the 9/11 events resulting in key western countries becoming heavily engaged in military campaigns in faraway lands, such as Iraq and Afghanistan. In my opinion, these are the last large scale interventions of the West, the final manifestations of a world that is no longer sustainable and acceptable, as sovereign debt, defence cuts and new international power relations make it clear. 

The 2000s was also a period when the different regions of the world gained greater political awareness of their own characteristics and sought to take charge of their own agenda. The launching of NEPAD, in 2001, is an illustration of such trend: Africa decided to change the way it related with the outside world. From then on, the objective became to take care of its own problems and be able to set its specific path towards the future. 

This is also a time of power shifts leading to the consolidation of new centres of influence. The old world’s authority is being challenged by the emerging powers.

As the French philosopher Michel Foucault used to say, power is not a fixed commodity, but a dynamic relationship that constantly changes. It is changing fast today.

Long weekends at the EU institutions

The EU staff in Brussels did not like my post of yesterday. I advised them to read it again. It is more favourable to them than many other statements we kept hearing throughout the day. Yes, they had again a lot of bad press today, in many corners of Europe.

And I also gave them another piece of advice, gently: please be in the office as scheduled, show you respect the working hours.

The point is that the EU bureaucrats have to move away from the habit of very long weekends. It is quite common to see most of the offices empty by Friday 11:00 am. And if one goes there and walks the buildings on a Monday morning, one notes that many staff are still out. They might be about to arrive at Brussels airport by late morning.

Actually, one gets the impression that there is little work discipline in many of the EU institutions. And the performance measurement mechanisms seem to be lacking. The bosses do not appear to be in charge.

Isn’t it time to start looking at these matters?

Having said that, there are people that work pretty hard. Not everyone is a “professional weekender”. 

EU staff on strike

EU civil servants were on strike today over salary matters. As the EU Council prepares to discuss the budget framework for 2014-2020, Germany and a couple of other countries have expressed the view that the European bureaucrats are dearly paid. They consider that their salary and compensation packages are excessive. Therefore, in line with the austerity that is being implemented in many states, the EU functionaries should accept some cuts to their pay.   

Nobody likes to see his or her salary chopped. But it is also true that many middle ranking EU staff are much better paid than the cabinet ministers in their home countries. But that is the rule of the international game. Salaries are always compared with the best in the sector, not with payments made in low income countries.

However, that is not a justification for a strike by privileged people. They should express their dissatisfaction at their desks and through other means without calling for a strike.

In my 32 years at the UN we had several situations of discontentment with the level of the pay slip. Particularly in New York, where the cost of living is extremely high and the UN salaries barely cover the reasonable needs of a family. But I do not remember we ever engaged on a strike.   

Mali is not Afghanistan

Containing the Islamist threat as Gaddafi’s ghost casts shadow in the Sahel

By Victor Angelo and Marc de Bernis

France finds itself relatively isolated in its intervention in Mali. While its European partners and the U.S. government have expressed support to the French operation aimed at preventing armed Islamic groups from seizing power, this has not translated into concrete co-operation, except for token logistical assistance.

One reason for the reluctance of France's western allies to engage on the ground is the fear that Mali could become an inextricable quagmire comparable to Afghanistan. This perception is wrong. Superficial comparisons lead to procrastination which could result in the escalation of a threat that could have been contained. 

Mali, like Afghanistan, is a developing country whose population is mainly Muslim. The similarity stops here. From a military and operational point of view, the Mali context is much less favourable to jihadists than Afghanistan. The various Islamists groups involved in northern Mali include no more than a few thousand fighters – with estimates of less than 3,000 – who operate within a vast but sparsely populated territory, home to less than two million people. In this desert and flat area – except for a mountainous zone in the north-west, the Adrar des Ifoghas – it is very difficult to hide, including within the local population, thus movements are easily spotted. Jihadist enclaves can be easily identified through intelligence which renders them  extremely vulnerable to air strikes. More importantly, there is no Pakistan equivalent that lies adjacent to Mali to offer safe haven to militants. The Taliban would never have been able to establish their power over Afghanistan and to resist NATO forces without the refuge offered to them next door, in Pakistan. Jihadists in Mali have no access to an external sanctuary or base to train their fighters. Certainly not in Algeria, Niger or Mauritania. Not even in the more fractured Libya.

From a cultural and religious standpoint, the region is dominated by the Tuaregs who co-exist with a mix of other ethnic groups, including Maures, Songhai and Peuls. The Muslim population follows a moderate and peaceful interpretation of Islam, in harmony with the ancestral traditions of Africa. Religious practice is not a primary characteristic of the Tuareg lifestyle. Even if a tiny fraction may be lured into a more extremist form of Islam, as advocated by Salafist groups, with impressionable young men falling prey to the proselytism of jihadist recruiters, it is unlikely that the cultural landscape would allow for the development of a strong extremist movement comparable to that of the Taliban. Recent events have shown the Malian population to unanimously reject the Sharia law as imposed by the Islamist groups in areas under their control.

In economic and political terms, Mali is fragile but not a failed state. Despite of its limited resources, the country, which is among the world’s poorest, has managed to democratise. The real problem lies in the lack of good governance which has led northern Mali to become a smuggling corridor between Sub-Saharan Africa and Europe for all forms of trafficking – in drugs, arms, tobacco, and people. However, the country’s economy is not dependant on illegal commodities, contrary to the case of Afghanistan, which is plagued by the narcotics trade.

The crisis in Mali is related to the collapse of the Gaddafi regime in Libya. Many Tuareg men had been employed by Gaddafi as militias. Having lost their jobs, these fighters had returned to the Sahel, particularly to northern Mali, to establish an alliance with various Islamic movements inspired by Al Qaeda. The recent break-up of this coalition demonstrates the incompatibility between the Tuareg National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), which is deeply rooted in the region’s history, and Islamist terrorists. The latter have no legitimacy within the population and no means to control the territory on a sustainable basis, both economically and militarily. As such they can be eliminated through concerted and determined international action in co-operation with the states of the region, including Algeria. At the same time, long term solutions require a renewed dialogue between the Tuareg MNLA and the different Sahelian governments. This should start now, as military operations progress. Meanwhile, the international community should review the delivery of development assistance to the Sahel to achieve a more targeted approach to state capacity-building and poverty alleviation. Particular attention should be given to the urban youth, as their engagement is key to curb militancy and violent uprising.

(721 words)

Victor Angelo was a former UN Under-Secretary-General and the UNSG’s Special Representative for the Central African Republic and Chad.

Marc de Bernis was a former UN Development Programme’s Resident Representative in Algeria and Niger.

Politics is a very strange game

Berlusconi promised today to return 4 billion Euros of property taxes money to the Italian families, if he gets to power after the general elections that take place at the end of this month.  

This man is a consummate populist. This announcement is another demonstration of his immense capacity to offer fantasies and thin air as the solutions to the vast problems Italy is facing. You and I would think that the voters would see how implausible such a promise is. Be aware! The opinion polls are showing that Berlusconi’s party is getting stronger and stronger. Many citizens love to be deceived!

Politics of hope or fear

If you are in politics and public affairs, do not forget to read Cicero’s speeches from time to time. They are a major source of wisdom and oratory. Cicero lived long ago, from 106 to 43 BC, in the Ancient Rome, but his observations about the powerful and human nature remain current.

Today, I looked again at the following observation he made in his work “Oratory”:

“Men are influenced in their verdicts much more by prejudice…or anger…or by some excitement of their feelings, than either by the facts of the case…or by any rules or principles…”

My comment: That’s why objectivity in politics carries very little water!

My conclusion: Better to create hope, then!

Destabilising West Africa

The French President will visit Mali tomorrow. I have no idea of the messages he intends to put across. But there is one I would like to suggest. It concerns the funding of the African peacekeeping forces that are now deploying into the country. At this week’s donor conference $450 million have been pledged against a budget that is estimated at $1 billion. The gap is too big and needs to be filled. F. Hollande should emphasise that he wants to have an effective African deployment in Mali. He should call on donor countries to take the funding as a matter of their own national interest.

But there is more to this matter. If the African forces are not fully compensated that will spell big crises in their countries of origin, once they are back from the front. I have seen that in the 90s and during the last decade in West Africa. And I am afraid the same might happen again now. Soldiers that have become battle hardened and do not receive the allowances they have been promised are a major source of trouble and instability in most of West Africa. They become convinced that their generals and the politicians have kept the money given by the donors – they do not believe in funding gaps or in pledges that did not materialise – and they seek retribution.

I see this financial shortcoming as a major cause for further destabilisation in the region. It needs to be addressed. 

Human rights and reconciliation

In Northern Mali, now that the French military operations brought state control back to the urban areas, the next challenge is to make sure that the national army respects the human rights of the Tuareg populations. The soldiers come from the south of the country and tend to see everyone that looks Arab or Tuareg as a suspect Islamist, or, at least, as a collaborator of the extremists. This needs to be prevented. There have been already some reprisal killings by the Malian army and the non-black residents of the North are terrified. Their human rights have to be safeguarded.

In addition, it is time for political dialogue and reconciliation between the communities.

All these issues need to be high on the international agenda as some type of assistance is being gathered by donor countries. To start with, France, the EU and the US should make clear statements about the need for a political process, for human rights and tolerance in Mali. 

The tough path to leadership

Some people believe that to become a leader is like deciding to go for a walk in the Central Park. You just put your walking shoes, go there and do it! Leadership and the competition to be in charge are a bit more complex. Getting to be a leader requires a very strong will, sheer determination and absolute dedication. You cannot have one foot in and the other out!

In a world where everything must be comfortable and pleasant, predictable and easy, only very few are ready to impose on themselves the focus, the personal sacrifice and the discipline indispensable, what it takes, bluntly said, to become a leader. That’s why there is a serious crisis of leadership in the world of today.