Indifference is gaining ground in international affairs

Disguised indifference: this seems to be the prevailing attitude behind the international standing of big nations, the policy line they currently tend to follow. 

Europeans

The latest Eurobarometer survey results published yesterday show that the European citizens value above all the free movement of people, goods and services within the EU and the fact that peace has been kept in the Continent. 62% of those living in the Eurozone also believe that the common currency is a positive development. However, a large number (67%) think that their voice is not heard and counts for little when it comes to influencing European politics.

It is also curious to note that the rich Luxembourg feel very “European” (88% of people in the Grand Duchy say so) and the poor Greek have a very different opinion (only 44% feel as Europeans).  They are at the end of table. 

The baby and the UK economy

Looking at the TV pictures on the Royal Baby, and seeing the crowds and the fever in the national media, I can only say to myself that the British will never stop amazing me.  Then, I look at the Financial Times and find there a very serious assessment of the baby’s impact on the economy. Great Britain, indeed!

UK and the EU

As I prepared myself in order to write an opinion piece about the European Union’s prospects and priorities for next year or so I noticed that the UK Cabinet is, by far, the government that invests the largest amount of resources in reviewing the current performance of the EU institutions – particularly the Commission. Gradually, they are placing themselves in a position to have a critical influence on determining the agenda of the future, including the reform of the machinery and the role of the institutions. London will also be leading the devolution of power campaign that is inevitable in the near future. And Cameron and Hague are already placing some very subtle pressure on Berlin to have the Germans on their side. 

Political clarity in Portugal

Portugal goes to bed tonight with a clear mind: the President has decided that the current Prime Minister and his coalition government will remain in power and will have a chance to complete their mandate.

My hope is that the PM and the leader of the junior party in the coalition have learned one or two governance lessons and become more responsive to political dialogue with others, including the key opposition party – the Socialists – and business and labour leaders. 

Lisbon stroll

I spent the morning walking in downtown Lisbon. And I enjoyed it. 

The city centre has benefit from some serious renovation and at this time of the year is full of light, colour and tourists. Many young tourists, from many corners of Europe, can be seen in the public places, little terrace cafés and other shops that make the heart of the Portuguese capital. 

As we stroll around, we feel safe, which is a key concern when you are visiting a big city and a foreign place.  And if you are just a visitor, you do not notice the crisis the country has been experiencing. Life looks normal. 

Well, that’s good news.

Kerry's efforts

John Kerry, the US Secretary of State, has spent most of his time, during the last two weeks or so, trying to resuscitate the “final status negotiations” –that’s the official expression to name the talks between Israel and Palestine on border issues, security arrangements, and the fate of the Palestinian refugees.

Today it seems that his efforts are bearing fruit. We might see both countries back at the negotiating table, after five years of interruption and stalemate, next week. This is great news. I think it is important to recognize Kerry’s efforts.

And encourage him – and above all, President Obama – to continue along the same line, notwithstanding every bit of resistance Prime Minister Netanyahu will try to raise. At the end of the day, the key to very complex situation that defines the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is as much in Washington as it is in the region. 

Mandela is an inspiration

Mandela Day: very well celebrated in many parts of the world. One should feel great for that. And one should also feel good and proud because Mandela has shown that an African can be a global example for peace, justice and freedom.  He has also reminded us that there are politicians that mean well and are truly concerned with the betterment of their people. 

The strategic interest of the Middle East is tapering

The Middle East, defined in broad terms to include both Egypt and Iran, and the countries in between, remains the most unstable region of the world. It includes very dramatic and intricate crisis, such as the ones in Syria, Palestine, Lebanon, and very fragile governance regimes, such as the ones in Jordan, Iraq and Bahrain, without mentioning Saudi Arabia, which many consider to be experiencing the initial symptoms of instability. It is also home to serious ethnic and sectarian conflicts, as the Kurd situation, which concerns several countries, the rivalries between Sunni and Shia power elites, and the proliferation of extremist groups illustrate. The region is also deeply affected by Israel’s policy towards the Palestinian people.

View from the West, the region has lost a good deal of its strategic importance. Oil from the Middle East can now easily be replaced by oil from other parts of the world, including the US and Canada. Oil is therefore a much weaker argument when looking at the Western interests in the region. Religious fundamentalism and its violent manifestations are still a reason to pay attention to the region. But even in that domain, home-grown fundamentalism in the EU and the US are now getting more attention than distant threats that might be taking roots in the Middle East.

Also, from a trading perspective, the region is perceived as a small market, notwithstanding the wealth available within some of its leading circles.

The trend is therefore to switch the attention away from the Middle East to other parts of the world. 

What is Qatar up to?

I am confronted quite often with questions about Qatar’s role in the Middle East and North Africa. A lot of well-informed observers have serious difficulties to understand the Emirate’s strategic objectives and its political moves. Besides the role played by Qatar’s stated-funded global TV channel Al-Jazeera, which by the way, I watch with interest, people ask questions about many other things, including Doha’s extraordinary financial support provided to former President Morsi of Egypt.

No doubt, one has to have a deeper look at Qatar geo-strategic ambitions.