EU and Russia: the winter of a relationship

The political relations between the EU and Russia are going through a low point. And my advice is very simple: this is no time to make waves. Let the sleeping dog lie. This should be, on our side, the inspiring line for the next few months. Keep the engagement but keep it low intensity. Let´s be patient and distant.

However this should not prevent our side from working on a strategy for the future. Quietly, but firmly and with the right vision. 

Central Africa and the Sahel

I spent a bit of the day on the news and comments being produced about the dramatic events in the Central African Republic (CAR). And I end up the day very much amazed by the little knowledge people seem to have about the root causes of the current crisis. Then, I wonder how can the external players contribute to a finding a solution to a problem they do not fully understand?

I served in CAR from 1985 to 1989. Then, I came back in 2008 up to 2010, to be deeply involved with the unfolding events.

I vividly remember my discussions with President Bozizé. Including about the role of Muslim armed groups operating in the border areas with Darfur and South-Eastern Chad. And the growing tensions with pastoralists coming from the Sahel. CAR had obviously changed in its social set-up between my first and second stay in the region. And that change was not only a warning of the crisis in the making. It was, in many ways, one of vectors of much deeper and multifaceted transformation that is being imported from the arid lands of the North and moving into the Bantu areas of central tropical Africa. 

Madiba and the building of Africa´s self-confidence

Nelson Mandela achieved many great things. But there is one that is not fully understood by us in the Western world.

He gave the African people, men and women, self-confidence. People throughout Africa looked at Madiba, gained poise and dignity. Said differently, as they became aware of his example, they could finally believe that Africans can make it, transform their lives and critically contribute to changing the world for the better. 

Nelson Mandela

Nelson Mandela passed away this evening. He was an extraordinary man. A striking example of the often quoted statement: leadership matters and a great leader makes a historical difference.

Sometimes, when I thought and wrote about him, I was afraid that many of us are too small to fully grasp the amazing person Mandela was.

History has a very short and selective memory. But the history of our times will not forget Nelson Mandela. 

Relations with China require a EU common approach

Prime Minister Cameron´s visit to Beijing reminds me that there is no EU coherent policy regarding the relations with China.

It is true that there was a recent – about two weeks ago – summit meeting between Van Rompuy and Barroso, on the European side, and the new leadership of China. But it was more of an empty formality than an exercise on strategy. The Chinese play the game and seem to be very interested in a stronger relationship with the EU. But in fact, they are much more interested in their bilateral relations with a small handful of European countries. They know that national sovereignty feelings are coming back within Europe and they understand that better than the concept of a lose community of shared interests.

But the Chinese are difficult and complex parties to any agreement. They have a very strategic and subtle view of international partnerships, particularly with the West. That approach cannot be matched by a piecemeal approach, on our side, by a short-sighted view of each country´s interests. More. The Chinese leaders will take advantage of the competition that is now shaping the relations among the EU member states.

Are we poets or just fools?

EU has chosen the path of confrontation with Russia, when it comes to Eastern Neighbourhood policy. 

Politics is of course about choices. 

It is also about having a clear strategy, once the choices have been made. 

Choices without the appropriate strategy are just empty wishes. They belong to the realm of either the poets or the fools. 

Piracy in West African waters

Again on West Africa, this time on piracy: the Gulf of Guinea has experienced this year 30 sea incidents. In two cases, the local pirates have managed to capture the ships.

 Figures show that the Gulf has had more incidents this year than the Somalia waters -20 cases so far in that part of the Indian Ocean.  It is time to start discussing some big international operation in West Africa, even if its waters are no as vital as the East Africa ones for world trade. If the issue is not addressed soon the economies of the coastal states will be seriously impacted by the growing piracy. And soon we might even see an attack against one of the offshore oil platforms, either in Nigeria or in Ghana.

Radical Islam in West Africa

Kenema is a provincial head town in the South-Eastern region of Sierra Leone. Most of its residents are Muslims, as it is the case in several parts of the country. On 3 November 2013 the people there came to the streets and threw stones at the houses of local men they consider being religious extremists. They call them Al-Shabaab, because they have long beards, they belong to a strict sect of the Islamist faith and their wives are fully covered. And above all, they accuse them of being a hothouse for breeding future terrorists. The Sierra Leone Police had to intervene to bring some tranquillity back to Kenema.

This is new in Sierra Leone. But it is not unique to that West African country. In the recent years, one has seen an expansion of radical approaches to religious practice in different corners of West Africa. They cannot be linked to any violent action. However, they show that the radical preachers trained in Saudi Arabia for many years are now having an impact of the way these traditional communities see Islam. 

Imagination and intuition

With change taking place at such a fast pace, the organizations have to become very flexible and adaptable. Rigid structures will be on the losers ‘side.

Unfortunately, that´s the case with many government administrations and public institutions. They can´t change fast enough, they have their own inertia and therefore they face the risk of becoming an economic and bureaucratic burden at a time when they should be anticipating the future and be able to respond to the new challenges.

The concept of anticipation is also crucial. The leaders are those who can read the signs and foresee the next generation of threats and opportunities. Imagination is, more than ever, a very precious commodity. 

Are we moving back to the old approach to national sovereignty?

This morning I attended a discussion about the current meaning of national sovereignty in Europe. The discussants recognised that we live now in a context of limited and shared sovereignty. As members of the EU, the countries have transferred some of their national powers to the Commission or the Council. And they have also agreed that some key decisions do require the consensus of the membership. These have been important steps towards a supranational approach to the common good.

Everybody seemed to agree that the trend towards pooled State sovereignty will continue and that there will more co-responsibility in the future and less decisions based on a narrow approach to national interests. 

I think it is good to have an optimistic view of EU´s collective will. That´s what will take us forward.

But I am not sure about the next few years. European countries give the impression they are moving back to the old views about sovereignty. That will certainly be a wrong direction. However, one should be aware of the facts. And be prepared for less. Even when we aim at more.