Eastern Ukraine

The de-escalation in Eastern Ukraine is very urgent. And it should start by looking at the most recent events with a clear sense of proportions. The occupations of public buildings in a few Eastern cities are the work of very small groups of individuals. They might get a lot of media attention and create serious concerns in many chancelleries, but the truth is that there is no massive support, at least up to now, for that kind of actions. For the time being this is a law and order issue and not a popular sea change. It should be dealt with by the Kiev authorities with measured force. That´s the call one has to make at this time of greater risks. 

Politics and peacekeeping

I am writing again about peacekeeping. And for sure, one of my conclusions is that the UN peacekeeping operations need to have a solid backing from the Security Council, when it comes to their role in political transitions and negotiation. It is not enough to have the military, police and civilian establishments solidly established in the mission. The head of the mission can only fulfill his or her role if the political mandate is clear, fully supported by the Council and by other key stakeholders such as the countries in the region. In a case of national crisis, the political muscle is critical. It has to be there, at the centre of the mission, without ambiguity.

Anothe lame duck mission in the making

The same day I had a discussion about the frustratingly slow and very incomplete deployment of the UN peacekeeping operation in Mali (MINUSMA), the Security Council has approved the fielding of a very large mission to the Central African Republic. To be on the safe side, in terms of readiness to deploy, the Council decided that the effective starting date for this new operation will be September 15. But everyone knows that there is very little spare capacity really available for these very large missions. The new one will be struggling for military, police and civilian staff as MINUSMA is doing.

Actually, it is time to think very differently about the peacekeeping operations. We cannot just base ourselves on the old model of extensive military presence for an extremely large duration of time. Things need to be thought in more dynamic terms, shorter and more specialised missions, with a very firm political mandate. 

Kerry and Netanyahu

The Israeli government has no love lost for John Kerry. Benjamin Netanyahu and his inner circle are deeply irritated by Kerry´s continued efforts to bring peace to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. They let that displeasure be known through informal channels. When they meet the US Secretary of State they seem to be willing to play the diplomatic game. But they are not. And that´s why they have cancelled the release of the last batch of Palestinian prisoners that should have found their freedom days ago. More. They have decided to build extra settlements -700 new homes – in occupied land in the East Jerusalem area.

Israel top leaders believe they can only count on their own means to protect their country. They see the emergence of a Palestinian State as a serious threat to their own security. They prefer the current status quo. But the present arrangement has no real future. It is a major source of conflict a very serious violation of basic principles of international law. Sooner or later, both sides will have to find a more accommodating solution. The ball, however, is more on the Israeli camp than on the other side. This is a debate the Israelis should have among themselves. 

Rwanda and the Central African Republic

On this anniversary day, twenty years after the beginning of genocide in Rwanda, as we remember those terrible events and the hundreds of thousands of victims, we seem to forget that we have a similar situation in the Central African Republic. It is true the numbers are not as high, but the hatred between communities and the killing of innocents, of one´s neighbours, just because they look a bit different or dress in a way that shows their religious beliefs, are very similar to what happened in Rwanda.  And once again, we prefer to remember the past and ignore the deep challenges of the present.

Afghan elections: lets keep them clean

We should look at today´s presidential elections from a positive perspective. The news is good indeed. The participation rate, estimated at 58%, is very significant in a country that is still confronted with major security threats. It was encouraging to see long lines of men and women waiting their turn to vote. It is true that the logistics were not exemplary. In many places they could even be said to be messy. But flaws were corrected throughout the day and people could eventually vote.

Among the eight candidates, the two leading hopefuls, Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani, are very reasonable people. Any of them could be a good leader for the country.

The point is to keep the credibility of the elections. The last ones, in 2009, were too fraudulent. Hamid Karzai was elected then in a manner that made his tenure very fragile and compromised his capacity to fully exercise the democratic authority that was key for a rapid transition to a more legitimate government. He spent his last mandate just trying to balance the interests of very powerful allies, without having the legitimacy to go beyond that.

Karzai will however be reminded as the leader that carried the nation through many difficult years, close to thirteen. The last deed everyone expects from him is very simple: keep the current electoral process clean, do not interfere. His candidate –apparently it is Zalmai Rassoul – might not make it to the second round. But Karzai should make it to the good books of the Afghan history. 

Syria

Syria´s crisis has now disappeared from the screens. It has joined the dramatic roll that lists all the long-lasting tragedies that the world can´t resolve and therefore got accustomed to. We are very good at accepting “as normal” situations that are well beyond what should be morally accepted. The point here is to say no to that aptitude. And bring Syria back to the forefront of the international agenda. Lest we forget, as they say. 

European peace matters

It would be a mistake to underestimate the political influence of those in the West that think that it is time to teach the big neighbour a lesson. At the end of the Cold War, many people lost centre stage as their specialised skills were no longer in demand. They seem to be back now and with a strong sense of opportunity. They want to seize the occasion. And things can then go pretty far. More than ever, one should be aware of the different interests at play, on every side. And fight for common sense to be again the guiding principle. Leadership here means to be brave enough to contain a crisis that can become out of control. 

EU and the Ebola fever

On the same day leaders of the EU and Africa were meeting in Brussels, the people of Guinea, in West Africa, continued to dread the Ebola fever that has now killed close to a hundred people and is still out of control. The government in Conakry has not enough capacity to stop this epidemic. The health services, with the help of some international NGOs, are just overwhelmed. And the risks of contagion across the border into Sierra Leone and Liberia are very real.

But there has been no voice in the leading circles of Europe to raise the issue and call for an urgent, large scale and highly specialised assistance to be sent to Guinea and the neighbours, to help them to effectively respond to a disease that kills close to 95 people on every 100 that can infected. 

NATO´s new position needs to be taken seriously

NATO´s foreign ministers met today on Ukraine, Russia and the security along the Eastern borders of the Alliance. The decisions taken need to be taken with great attention. They combine a mixture of political measures with military preparedness and operations. They represent, in many ways, a turning point, after trying for two decades to build a constructive partnership with Russia.

We should not conclude that the post-Cold War period is now defunct. However, we should not underestimate the degree of potential threat the ministers perceive as coming from the East. To manage to reach a unanimous position on this matter says plenty of unsaid things about the seriousness of the situation. The intention had been, up to now, to de-escalate. Today´s conclusions do escalate the tension. They certainly have powerful reasons to believe that this is the right course of action at this stage.