Obama´s State of the Union speech seen from Brussels

The European media treated President Obama´s State of the Union speech very kindly. The spin has indeed been very positive.

For most of us in the EU, Obama continues to be perceived as a very principled politician and also as a wise leader. People know the American economy is now stronger, jobs have been created in large numbers – 14 million new jobs during his presidency –, the unemployment rate has been cut in half and the government deficit slashed by three-quarters. Europeans also know that Obama has given priority to diplomacy and multilateralism when addressing international issues. Moreover, they feel that the US under Obama has not abandoned Europe, notwithstanding the new critical challenges America is confronted with in the Far East.

There is one more year to go before he completes his second mandate. In international politics, one year is a very short period of time. Most likely the transatlantic free trade agreement between the US and the EU – known as TTIP – wil not be completed before Obama´s departure. In many ways, the reasons for delay belong to the European side. But his name will certainly be associated to the effort to bring the two sides together in terms of free commerce. And shared commercial interests bring nations together and give them a mutual sense of confidence and security.

                                        

Istanbul, Europe and Merkel

Today´s terrorist attack in Istanbul must be unequivocally condemned. The victims and their families as well as the people of the city and of Turkey deserve our deepest sympathies and the strongest expression of our solidarity.

We should also profoundly worry as this act shows a very high level of strategic planning.

First, it targeted the core of the tourism industry in the emblematic city of Istanbul. It aimed at attacking the city´s image, the efficiency of the security services, who were in high alert, and the economy of the country. It is also an act of revenge against the government´s recent crackdown on Islamic State activities.

Second, it was clearly directed against German tourists above all. I do not think this is a coincidence. It was certainly a deliberate choice. The ultimate objective was to contribute to undermine Angela Merkel´s authority. The German Chancellor has been very responsive to the plight of the Syrian refugees. Such an approach is contrary to the message the Islamic State terrorists would like to put across the Muslim world. They wanted to show that the key European leader – and Europe for that matter – had a hostile approach to Muslim people.

They would also want to see Europe in crisis as a result of the mass arrival of refugees. Merkel´s leadership has prevented the potential crisis from materialising. In their view, she has to be seriously destabilised for Europe to lose direction and balance. 

War crimes in Syria

Madaya, the Syrian town that has been under siege for more than six months, surrounded by government troops, is a symbol. As are the towns of Foah and Kefraya, in the Northern part of the country. They have also endured a very long siege, this time by rebel groups that are fighting the regime of President al-Assad.

In Madaya, around 40,000 people have been without food and medicines supplies. In the two government-controlled towns, the numbers are close to 20,000. All three are not only a reminder of the ferocity of the conflict that is consuming Syria since 2012, of the widespread human suffering, they are also an example of the many war crimes that every side is committing.

Indeed, starving masses of civilians to death, as it is the case in these towns, is a war crime, as defined by international law. But after so many atrocities, we are losing sight of the very serious violations of the law of the war that keep occurring in the country. That´s certainly not a very good approach to justice. The peace process, when it happens, has to take these matters into account as well. 

Immigration as a big issue

One of the big questions on the EU´s table these days is about immigration. And the question is very clear. Very simple and pretty direct. Have we lost control of our immigration policies?

We have to be able to answer to the question without falling into stereotypes of any nature. 

Immigration issues are indeed like mines in a minefield. It is very common to explode on them. We therefore need to deal with the issues in a very careful way. But be aware as well that this is a field that needs to be cleared. Rather sooner than later, I should add.

Cologne raises many questions

Referring again to the New Year´s criminal incidents in Cologne, I think it is important to note that the total number of complaints filed with the police has now reached 379. This is an incredible high figure, but possibly lower than the actual number of cases. In these types of crimes some victims do prefer not to file a formal charge. In any case, the total figure registered so far clearly shows the magnitude of the problem. It leaves no room for a light treatment of the matter. This is more than just a law and order issue. As it is also bigger than just police failure to anticipate and later on to respond to the occurrences.

There are many questions that call for a frank and courageous answer. But also for serenity. The citizens have to be reassured. And the refugees have to see the authorities as strong enough and ready to separate the wheat from the chaff.

Lessons from Cologne

Regarding the sexual attacks against young women and thefts in Cologne, and also in some other European cities, I certainly wish to add my voice to those who have expressed shock. It is important to make it clear that such actions are criminal acts. Therefore, the perpetrators ought to be brought to face justice. The police work needs to be done without any outside interference. This is no time for political meddling in police affairs.

But it is time to draw some very serious political lessons from these abhorrent incidents. They call for a frank debate about the challenges of integrating in Europe large numbers of people coming from cultures that are very different from ours – and in some ways, unacceptable, because they are a negation of key human values Europeans take for granted. It is not an easy debate but has to be clearly discussed. 

Moving on Saudi Arabia, Iran and also the UN

In my last posting, I suggested the UN Secretary-General should dispatch without delay a Personal Envoy for political consultations with the Saudi and the Iranian governments. I should now recognise that Ban Ki-moon has indeed requested his Special Envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, to travel to Riyadh and Teheran. The Envoy has now completed his discussions in Saudi Arabia and is now in Iran. I support the move. And I hope the big nations will do the same.

The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs should also issue a supporting statement.

Now, on a matter that is somehow related to the above, I would add that de Mistura could be, later in the year, if there is progress on the peace talks regarding Syria, a name to be ultimately considered for the UN Secretary-General´s position. At this stage, two of the strongest candidates, UNESCO Director-General Irina Bokova and her compatriot Kristalina Georgieva, who is currently in Brussels as Vice-President of the EU Commission, are on a mutually assured destruction path. They are both high quality potential candidates, but their government in Bulgaria might decide in the end not to nominate either of them, for internal political reasons. Without nomination there is no chance of being chosen for the SG´s position.

Then, there are other names in Eastern Europe. But several of them might raise red flag objections in Moscow. And without Russia´s support, there is no room for success.

It might then be necessary to look for a last minute compromise. That´s when names like de Mistura could be put forward. If the Italian government makes the necessary move, of course. And that´s another unknown at this stage. 

Mediating between Saudi Arabia and Iran

If I were the UN Secretary-General, I would immediately dispatch a Personal Envoy to consult with the authorities in Riyadh and Teheran, as well as with the Arab League and the key states in the region. The point is to take the initiative, at a very high level, to reduce the growing tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The SG should do it. And select the Envoy from a pool of respected former Heads of State or Prime Ministers, preferably from Asia.

He has the power and the status to initiate such a move. And he has to be seen as being extremely preoccupied with the aggravating situation in the Middle East. More so, because the new critical developments have a deep negative impact on the very timid and tentative peace processes that are about to start regarding Syria and Yemen. 

Warning Saudi Arabia

One should be very shocked by the mass executions carried out yesterday by the Saudi Arabian authorities. In the eyes of today´s modern world, these killings have every hallmark of excessive punishment. They belong to another epoch and to a primitive way of dealing with human beings. And in the case of the well-known Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, the decision to carry the death sentence on him seems to be based on sectarian grounds as well as on a radical, unacceptable approach to dissent. It is furthermore an extremely aggravating factor to the existing dramatic divisions that the Middle East region is already experiencing.

Those in the West that have publicly expressed their deepest concerns regarding the executions did the noble thing. The regime in Riyadh should receive from each one of its Western allies a strong message of warning and condemnation. That´s the best way to help them to understand that it is time to move away from an outdated and unacceptable way of conducting justice and implementing human rights. 

Happy New Year and bring confidence back

As we start the New Year, we also realise that one the great challenges ahead, as far as the European leaders are concerned, is to regain their credibility. They have to take into account that public opinion is a strategic variable in matters of politics. And they have to endeavour to get the voters ‘confidence back. That should be the main topic of discussion in the political circles as we get into the first working week of 2016.

In the meantime, and just as an example, let me refer that Le Figaro´s edition of today organised a poll on President Hollande´s New Year Message. The daily newspaper got close to 46 thousand responses to the question. 92% of the readers said the message was not convincing. That´s an incredible negative reaction. It´s true that most of those who read Le Figaro are rather on the opposite side of Hollande´s politics. But still, such a percentage is just too revealing: political confidence is one way avenue. Once lost, it is almost impossible to recover.

Just to complement, on this same day another survey has shown that 3 out of every 4 French citizens do not wish either Hollande or Sarkozy to run for the presidency in 2017.

2016 is indeed a very promising year on the leadership side of politics.