The complexity

In my part of the world, the debate is now moving towards the recovery issue. To be able to get back to normal life as soon as possible. People are worried about jobs and the economic impact of this astonishing crisis. It’s now clear that the new debt situation of the states, the firms and the families will reach gigantic proportions. Many will not be able to reimburse it. They fear poverty. In any case, the Gross Domestic Product will contract seriously, to dramatic levels if the lockdown goes on beyond mid-May. There will be a lot of pressure on governments in the next days and weeks for them to provide masks free of charge and to allow the economy to re-open. At the same time, people want to know that the hospital system is still able to respond and that enough money is invested in the vaccine research. All this will have a tremendous political cost. I can anticipate a lot of political malaise in some countries, particularly in France and Spain. That will add to the complexity of an extremely complicated crisis. 

Dreaming ahead

I have been asked that question, but I try not to respond to it. And then, they ask it again, my opinion about which country is likely to gain from the current dreadful crisis, in terms of geopolitics and dominance. They want me to say China, others they expect me to mention the possibility of an open confrontation between China and the US, and some people are ready for an answer that would foretell the end of the European Union. All this is very negative. There will competition after the crisis, as there has been before it, but I think it is too far-fetched to predict war or the demise of the EU.

Competition aside, the crisis underlines the need for a greater level of international cooperation and complementarity among the nations. We live in an extremely interconnected world, as we can see from the expansion of the pandemic to every corner of the planet. Unfortunately, some leaders are not getting the message. They have decided to fight a global threat through erecting national barriers. My hope is that this will be challenged once the crisis is over and that we will be able to make it clear that it is better to cooperate. That is certainly a debate that must take place at that time. We should not go back to the past.

Competition has been the model. We must go beyond that. Call it history. As we look into the future and learn from today’s difficulties and consider the next challenges, including the environmental one, we should be moving towards a new stage, that will put the emphasis on joint action and human cohesion. That could be one of the positive results of the present-day drama. It is idealistic, I accept the observation, but we must base ourselves on new dreams.  

The vision

In our part of the world, Easter time is about a renaissance. That’s a very appropriate moment to talk about the future. The public message must be inspired by prudent optimism. It´s good politics to describe the possible scenarios ahead of us. And give people more information about recovery plans. People appreciate being treated as adults, as responsible citizens. There is too much talk about the pandemic and not enough about the actions that will be supported during the recovery phase. Let’s move from fear to resilience. Leaders must share a vision that brings hope and shows to everyone they know what they intend to do, once the public health menace is under control. To narrate a vision will also help the leaders to sharpen their views on the policies that are required. A vision is not about wishful thinking. It is about what one sees as the situation after the crisis. It has a powerful positive effect on everyone, including on the leadership itself.

The Security Council and the pandemic

Yesterday, the UN Secretary-General addressed the Security Council on the Covid-19. It was the right move because the pandemic is not just a global health problem but also a serious threat to international peace and security, as well as a major humanitarian challenge for less developed States. I recommend an attentive reading Mr Guterres’s remarks. They are very thorough. The link is as follows:

https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sgsm20041.doc.htm

China, Russia and South Africa adopted a very similar line of response to the Secretary-General. They basically stated that Covid-19 is a public health issue and therefore it should not be discussed in the Council.

That’s a very narrow approach. It’s terribly wrong. They know it, but their main concern was to avoid a political discussion that would give the UN some room for a more active and comprehensive role. That has confirmed a trend we know well: to keep away from the Security Council the most strategic issues the world is confronted with. And to marginalise the UN Secretariat when it is in their own interest, as major countries.

Optimism

It requires an enormous effort to be positive in today’s situation. We see the number of victims, we read the stories of their suffering, we watch the unemployment figures shooting to the stars, the immense level of poverty that goes along, we think of people we have known in Africa and elsewhere in the least developed economies, and wonder how can they survive on daily basis, we are told of perfectly viable companies going to the rocks, and all the rest, and we get depressed. But we must convince ourselves that sooner we will be able to contain the pandemic – to contain, as a first stage, before we eliminate it – and that normalcy will be invited back. We do not really know what type of normality that will be, people talk about a changed society, but as soon as people feel free to take care of their lives we might see a big leap forward, a renewed level of energy. I think we have here an opportunity to come out of it wiser. And that makes me feel a bit optimist.

The African situation

My friends all over Africa tell me that the pandemic is gaining ground in several countries. There are lockdowns in place in some cities. The big problem is that the national health structures have very limited capacity to deal with Covid-19. It all starts with the means of testing. And then, the treatment, the conditions in the hospitals, the shortage of medical staff at every level. There have been some figures about the number of cases. But the tally is far from being reliable.

Leading people in those countries are looking in the direction of China. For them, China could be a model and a source of help. They are also very surprised as they see European nations, developed societies, struggling to respond to the challenge. They can’t understand the difficulties the Europeans meet. They thought that a situation of that type would never happen in Europe. The European image is losing sharpness and light in the African circles. That is one of the consequences of the pandemic.

The ordinary African citizen, particularly those in the big metropolis, have very little space for social distancing. That notwithstanding, I have seen pictures of empty cities throughout the Continent. People know what is at play. And they try to take it as seriously as their living conditions allow them to do it. I have a deep admiration for them. They are, in many cases, the poorest of the poor, they must fight every day for their own economic survival, but they are showing a good measure of responsibility.

One of things that must be placed back on the agenda, once we start getting out of these troubling times, is the relationship between Africa and Europe. Both sides have a lot to gain from a stronger partnership. And, as I said several times, we can include the Chinese in the equation. They will gain a lot as well, if we are all together.

Boris Johnson and Covid-19

Wishing a speedy recovery to Prime Minister Boris Johnson of the UK. He has been transferred this evening to intensive care because of the coronavirus. This sad moment sends a very strong message to the population. The coronavirus is a very threatening disease and people must follow all the official protocols the health authorities have adopted. The Prime Minister is a strong person, not old at all, and surrounded by the best medical care one can get. Notwithstanding all that, he is struggling. He has been sick for eleven days or so. If that can happen to the leader of the UK, we must pay a lot of attention to the virus. This is no small matter.

Bamako sunset

Thanks to a friend and the digital technology, I could watch the sun setting below the horizon of Bamako, the capital of Mali. The Niger River reflected the last rays of light of the day and sent me a message of beauty, tranquillity and vastness. Not far, the image showed one the arteries of the city, as busy as it is customary on a Sunday end of the afternoon. We talked about the virus – five registered deaths so far in the country. But we know how difficult it is to record the true cause of death in a country like Mali. Fine. The important point, for me, was to learn that life goes on as usual in the city and elsewhere. The UN mission, and the embassies, are following the prevention protocols. But the ordinary Malian is focused on what keeps him busy every day: to find enough resources to buy food and other basic needs; and to worry about the security of his family and his own, especially in the central and northern regions of the country. And those concerns are there to stay. People have very little time for the virus, as they had no time for the legislative elections that took place last weekend. The turnout in Bamako was around 10%. That says a lot. And it reminds us that we might live in a global village, but some corners of that village spend their time just trying to survive, virus or no virus.

Our daily dose of fear

In my area of the city there is one big supermarket. I go there every Thursday morning, for the weekly shopping. And sometimes, one more time, for some item that might be needed and was left out of the weekly list. During the last two or three weeks, I noticed that the number of people inside the supermarket is much smaller. Not because of any entry control, let me add. It all starts at the underground parking. Nowadays, it’s much easier to find a good spot for the car. I should add that most of those shopping on Thursday in morning are older customers, retired people. I am told they are afraid of spending time in the big shop. And today, as I was chatting over the phone with a friend, I got the confirmation that there are many people – and more so now, as the bad figures keep increasing – who are simply afraid of any contact, even a distant one, with other shopping fellows. And I said to myself that we are living in very strange times, when the simple act of moving along the wide aisles of a supermarket is seen as a dangerous exercise.  

What lies ahead is simply unique

The economic dimension of the crisis is huge. That’s now obvious to everyone, as the figures about unemployment and temporary layoffs become known. And that explains the gigantic size of the recovery programmes that have been announced. The amounts are just mind-boggling, difficult to imagine, because of the large number of zeros that follow the initial figure. Hundreds of billions, many of them close to trillion figures, or even above, as it is the case in the US. We are talking about funds that are simply not available. They will have to be printed.

It is a dramatic situation to many families and a move to extraordinary levels of indebtment by the States, the corporations and firms, and the families. Large amounts of debt, both public and private, were already a key feature in many countries. Our economies have been in the red for several years. But the previous debt levels will look as small fish when compared with the numbers in the next phase, the recovery phase. Most of that debt will be untenable and will have to be write off, sooner or later. That will cause major changes in wealth ownership. The point will be to manage such transition in a way that would avoid the ruin of key sectors of the economy, including the pension mechanisms, the banking and insurance systems, the bond and the property markets.

It is indeed a completely new ball game. We will have to play it and keep defining the rules as we move on. It will require an extraordinary level of international cooperation. That means wise leadership, plenty of foresight and political courage. Unfortunately, wise leadership seems to be a dimension that is seriously absent in the current international relations scenario. In my opinion, that’s one of the key risks that can seriously disrupt the next stage of our life in this small planet. These will be exceptional times.