Sudan and South Sudan

For those who know well the key political players in Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, it is difficult to believe those leaders are not playing some games in South Sudan. It is difficult to imagine they are keeping themselves at a prudent distance and not trying to strike some deals with Riek Machar, the head of the rebellion in the South.

The opposite is more likely.

For many reasons, of course, but above all for two main motives.

First, Khartoum is in the middle of a dramatic economic environment. There is very little foreign currency left, serious shortages of basic goods such as wheat, high unemployment and uncontrollable inflation. They need the oil revenues to keep flowing. And the wells are in the regions of South where Machar´s fighters are stronger. For Khartoum it makes then a lot of sense to be on Machar´s side.

Second, there are many in Sudan´s political establishment that have never accepted the independence of South Sudan. For them, Salva Kiir and his group in Juba are living reminders of the humiliation the North suffered. Whatever can be done to make them in South Sudan pay for such humiliation of the “Arabs” in the Sudan should not be missed. Creating havoc in the South is a good way of paying back.

Revenge is a way of life and a leading political approach in this part of world. 

UNPOL

What do you know about the work of the UN Police, UNPOL?

That was my question for today, at the request of a friend. And I spent part of the day writing about UNPOL. I called it notes about …as I thought these were just some brief comments about the subject matter. But it was no chore because I do consider the Police Division of the UN and their officers deployed in the field, about 13, 000 of them, as among the best support the United Nations can offer.

But I also noticed, once again, that the politicians and the public opinion are ill informed about the role of UNPOL in peacekeeping operations. Why?

Nairobi communiqué on South Sudan is biaised

It is clear that the crisis in South Sudan can only be resolved through political negotiations between the President´s camp and Riek Machar´s supporters. It cannot be imposed by communiqué, even if the communiqué is signed by a number of the region´s heads of state. In this context, today´s outcome of the Nairobi summit is a bit of a disappointment. And it is certainly not good enough in terms of the peace process. We need a different, more balanced and less formalist approach. 

South Sudan in an unstable region

The role being played by Ethiopia and Kenya in South Sudan deserves appreciation. The leaders of both countries have understood that the Sudanese crisis could rapidly unravel out of control and destroy the country´s fragile unity. It would also have a wider impact as it would contribute to destabilise some of the neighbouring countries as well.

Last year I wrote an essay on the impact of South Sudan´s emergency as a new unstable country on the region: Security and Stability. Reflections on the Impact of South Sudan on Regional Political Dynamics.

I think it is time to read it again. It is available on the NUPI website, the Norwegian Institute for International Relations, with the following link:
http://english.nupi.no/content/download/308614/1068211/version/1/file/NUPI+Report-SIP-7-Angelo-McGuinness.pdf

South Sudan calls for urgent political engagement

The UN Security Council approved an additional deployment of 6,000 troops to augment the peacekeeping presence of the mission in South Sudan, known by its initials as UNMISS.

This is basically a symbolic gesture with no immediate impact at a time of great urgency. The new soldiers are not available. The Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon, has tried to re-deploy some of the peacekeepers actually employed in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), as well as in Liberia and Cote d´Ivoire. He has not been successful so far. It will be difficult to get that re-deployment as the Troop Contributing Countries will not approve such a move. Troops have been sent to country A and to transfer them to country B is always a lengthy process, and it is normally bound to fail.

The grave situation in South Sudan does require a different approach. It calls for political engagement with the leaders of the factions at war. That engagement has to be robust and bring together high level UN and bilateral envoys. It needs to be very impartial to be accepted by all the parties. And it has to happen now, it cannot wait.

That´s what we would expect the Security Council to decide. 

CAR and Chad, two neighbours

Since Saturday, two days ago, ten flights have taken place between Bangui, the capital of the Central African Republic, and N´Djaména, the Chadian capital. These air bridge is evacuating a large number of Chadian citizens, men, women and children, that for a long period had peacefully lived side by side with their neighbours, the Central Africans, but that are now being targeted by violent mobs. The CAR citizens now see the Chadians as Muslims and enemies.

This is indeed a very sad development.

There are still many Chadians camping at Bangui airport. Most of them will be taken out tomorrow.

As this is taking place, there is no real political process taking place to complement the military presence provided by the French and the African contingents. This basically means that the crisis is not being addressed. The soldiers cannot do more that establish some security pockets here and there. It is up to the politicians, to the regional and international leaders, to create a framework that should bring peace back. 

Crisis in South Sudan

South Sudan is in a mess. The crisis is deeper than many had thought. It has very strong tribal roots and that is the worst case scenario in a new country like South Sudan. The combatants are used to fight and it will very difficult to convince them that they have more to gain from a ceasefire and a political agreement than from being in charge of their part of the country. 

But the only way forward is to negotiate and to restore peace. A political arrangement is required. President Salva Kiir and Riek Machar, the two leaders that matter in this crisis, need to compromise. They have to be told so and in very clear terms.

The UN mission needs to work closely with the neighbouring countries ‘governments in order to contribute to a political solution. It cannot accept to be side-lined. And it cannot run away from its political responsibilities.

  

2014 priorities

I have been asked to look into 2014. That´s the routine question that is always raised as we approach the New Year. And then we list a number of things that need to be looked at during the next twelve months.

I also did it this time. The list is long, notwithstanding the deliberate effort I made to keep it short and as focused as possible. I added, as a justification that we live in complex times. But that´s not a very convincing reason. We have to be clear about the critical issues, the ones that really make a difference and then give them priority attention.

Can we bring the list down to two or three key issues, in terms of EU internal policy, and another two or three, when it comes to external policy?

That would be the true test of strategic focus. 

Today´s EU Council made me think of a funeral wake

The EU Council meeting has just ended in Brussels. The atmosphere in the room was not good. There was more suspicion and rivalry around the table than willingness to address the key challenges. Some were just looking in the direction of Cameron and asking themselves why is it the UK has been accepted as a member? I am sure that one or two even recalled in their minds old man De Gaulle and is opposition to Britain´s membership, and might have thought he was a politician of vision.  Others might have looked in Samaras direction and wondered about Greece´s presence in the club. The same they thought could be said about Cyprus, Romania, Bulgaria, Portugal and some other countries. Then, there was Angela Merkel. I get the impression the leaders were just trying to spot any change in her posture and opinions, now that she has consolidated once again her authority within German politics.

And there were Van Rompuy and Barroso out there. They might have looked to some of the stronger and harsher leaders as two phantoms that are just dragging their feet in the EU corridors, as ghosts that wait for the village priest to come and exorcise them from the place. They are experiencing a painful end of term and everybody knows that. But they are not alone in their predicament. Baroness Ashton keeps them the company she can.

This is indeed a time of morose for the European leaders. Europe as a project is at standstill. 2014 will be a year without collective ambitions. Each country will try to keep afloat. And each leader will be just confined and paying attention to the domestic fires. The EU elections in May next year will come and go without capturing people´s attention.

We will see. 

Putin, our dear friend...

As we come closer to the New Year, I keep saying that one of the international concerns in 2014 should be about Putin´s Russia. The EU has to revise its strategy towards Moscow and move away from political confrontation.

Putin loves a good fight and will be very pleased to oblige. He will answer to fire with more fire. That will give him a chance to play on the Russian extreme nationalism, which is deeply entrenched in many segments of the population. He knows how to get political dividends from any foreign antagonism to the motherland.

I see him weaker when it comes to responding to cooperation proposals. We should look for chances to positively engage the Russians in some of the critical international challenges. That is the way forward in our relationship. And that will place Putin in a defensive position.