Germany and the peacekeeping operations

Joachim Glauck, the German President, in his speech at the opening of the Munich Security Conference, expressed the view that his country should be more involved in multinational peacekeeping operations. 

Such position is most welcome.

Germany has been the noticeable absent in many of the key military deployments authorised by the UN. Besides Afghanistan and Kosovo, the Berlin leadership, particularly Angela Merkel, says automatically no to any suggestion their armed forces should be part and parcel of EU and UN operations. They have said no to Mali, to Central African Republic, just to mention recent examples. That´s not what one should expect of a key country like Germany. Being economically strong gives them the responsibility to be more engaged in world affairs.

Hollande has cut short the socialist ambitions

The West European socialists, on the centre-left, the social-democrat kind of socialists, feel these days very betrayed by François Hollande. Based on his press conference of 14 January, they think he has changed course and is basically courting the employers. For them, Hollande is now more interested in making it easier for the capitalists to invest than in matters such as employment, public investment, and protecting the social rights of the workers.

There is disappointment in the air, within the socialist circles.

And also the fear that they will lose quite a number of seats in the May European Parliament elections.

The fact of the matter is that the European socialist movement has lost the initiative. It has not be able to come up with a coherent and appealing body of ideas that could be seen as a credible alternative to the Right.

Why is it?

Munich is far away from Africa

The 2014 Munich Security Conference (MSC) will open this Friday. With time, the MSC has become an important and very high profile annual event. If you are somebody in the area of international security, you better be there.

This year´s agenda has somehow surprised me. There is no session on Africa, not even on the Sahel. Cyber issues, energy, intelligence, the Middle East, in particular Syria, Central and Eastern Europe, with a special session on Kosovo, all that is on the table, during the three-day meeting. But Africa? Out of order…

How can we explain this omission?

Critical peace issues

I had a long discussion today about the current impact of the UN missions on peace and security. It all started with a silent crisis, Guinea-Bissau. Nobody talks about that country and the lasting disaster that has been around for so long. That is a DPA-led mission, meaning, the UN department of Political Affairs has the responsibility to guide the UN presence on the ground and report to the Security Council on a regular basis. Then, we looked at Cote d´Ivoire, where we have had a peacekeeping operation for quite some time. There is very little progress, I would say in a very diplomatic language, as far as domestic reconciliation is concerned. Next to it there is a UN peacekeeping presence in Liberia. The country has been struggling to rebuild itself, after many years of civil war and wanton destruction. There are now some serious issues of governance. Are we addressing them?

And we moved on, to the Central African Republic, South Sudan and Mali, not to mention the work of the UN missions in Libya and elsewhere. And the same question came out a number of times? Are we addressing the key issues?

The point is very simple. In all these situations, conflicts can come back, sooner or later, if we are not able to deal with the critical causes of instability. And in some cases, it is even worse. We are simply not able to help the countries to move out of the swamp. 

Today´s Egypt

I have talked to someone who knows Egypt well. And I came to the conclusion that any black-and-white approach to the current situation in the country would be a serious mistake. Egypt is a very fragile society, with many divisions and fault lines. The military offer a bit of a unifying platform. But many in the country think that their future is going backwards. And unfortunately, we can expect a long period of instability. The military response to instability is authoritarianism. Many people will resent it. But the region cannot afford a chaotic Egypt. Where to strike the balance?

EU and Russia: every summit meeting counts

The next EU-Russia Summit is taking place on Tuesday, 28 January, in Brussels. It will be a very short meeting. Initially thought to last for two days, it is now planned for three hours. That says a lot about the state of mind of the leaders, on both sides of the table. But it is also related to the fact that the current EU bosses are at the end of their mandates. Later in the year all the key European institutions will be headed by new people.

It would be however a mistake to take this summit as a mere formality. There are important issues on the table, from trade to visa requirements, from Ukraine to the Transnistria break-away region of Moldova. The Europeans should find a balance between pushing forward what is positive and can strengthen the relationship and stating the key principles they believe are important to ensure the full respect for international law and human rights. 

Yanukovych´s desperate move

President Yanukovych of Ukraine is now blinking. The offer he made, without proper negotiations, to take one of the opposition leaders as Prime Minister is perceived by many as a losing gesture. It will not contribute to a durable solution. People, those who are on the streets in Kiev and in the provincial head towns, want the President to go. They must feel tonight they are closer to achieve it. 

EU and Ukraine: what´s next?

The Ukrainian situation remains at the top of the EU agenda. It is true that the crisis keeps widening. But there is another major reason. Brussels is preparing itself for the next summit meeting with Russia, scheduled for 28 January. And the Europeans are struggling to find a common and effective position on Ukraine to bring to the summit table. The countries to the East of EU are pushing for a very strong statement on Ukraine. They think that will contain Russia´s European ambitions. Other countries, lead by Germany, believe that trade issues are more important than the Ukrainian fate.

In the meantime, Baroness Ashton is getting ready to travel to Kiev. She will bring a message about human rights and democracy. That´s not bad. But it is not enough to unlock the current impasse between Yanukovych and the opposition. 

Ukrainian escalation

We are witnessing a serious escalation of the Ukrainian crisis. There are good reasons to be very worried.

It is now impossible to remain silent and inactive. There is a need to build bridges between the two sides.

It is true that no-one on either side of the divide seems interested in dialogue. But the outside world has to tell them that there is no other way out of the current dangerous situation. 

We need a new approach to EU external military deployments

The decision to deploy an EU brigade to Bangui –EUFOR RCA – has now been taken. The level of ambition and the duration of this mission are very limited, at best 6 months, and just to protect the international airport.

But that´s not my point today.

The decision has shown once more that the EU has to adopt a different model to finance this type of missions. They cannot be financed by the participating countries. Some countries would be ready to supply the soldiers and the logistical military support but they can´t afford the costs. Portugal is just one those countries. Lisbon would be willing to deploy but the defence budget for 2014 cannot pay for it. This means the Portuguese will stay away.

These missions should be funded from a common EU budget. Each member state should contribute to the annual replenishment of that fund in accordance with their GDP per capita. This is the only way to approach in more proactive way the external peace keeping operations of the EU. If it is not adopted, we will continue to see a contradiction between the decision to assist counties in crisis and the effective deployment of a credible force. The foreign ministers will taken the decision but the soldiers will not reach the ground on time and in sufficient numbers.

 And Germany, among others, will never be part of any effort of this type. Not even by contributing a few euros.