President Donald Trump may have learnt a few things from the elections that took place this week in New York City and in the States of New Jersey and Virginia. I say this, albeit with some doubt, from personal experience. I have worked closely with several dictators and other absolutists, and I noticed that they always find a justification for their defeats, when they are not outright claiming victories. They continue along the same autocratic line, while making a few electoral adjustments and finding a few scapegoats, both internal and external enemies. The blame is attributed to these enemies, who are more or less invented and fiercely demonised. The regime's propaganda is then always intensified. I have never seen an authoritarian leader leave office of their own accord or take responsibility for an electoral defeat.
Trump must have noted the reasons for these defeats – or someone in his inner circle will have risked the politically suicidal courage to point it out to him.
Firstly, the cost of living and the voters' economic situation continue to be important electoral arguments. New York is one of the world's most expensive cities. It ranks first when it comes to the cost of rental housing. And the price of essential goods, when compared to the average salary of its inhabitants, is proportionally one of the highest on the planet. New Jersey and Virginia have excessive rates and taxes, unaffordable energy and healthcare systems, and a lack of jobs. The economy is, in democracies, a very strong electoral argument.
Secondly, pragmatism attracts votes. People are starting to tire of the inter-party intolerance, which is fuelled daily by extremists in the USA, with Trump at the forefront. Moderation and realism in the face of day-to-day problems have great electoral advantages. It is a lesson that may be valid in other parts of the world where voting is free, in Portugal or as happened last week in the Netherlands. The citizens of our democracies are starting to be fed up with shouting, exaggerations, and idiotic extremism. They want proposals for solutions that address their fundamental worries and difficulties. They also do not want a media that amplifies verbal radicalism and boorish behaviour.
Thirdly, opposition to the instability, inhumanity, and poor and dangerous governance of Trump is growing. In last week's CNN/SSRS poll, the president's approval rating had fallen to 37%. He continues to be unconditionally supported by a significant fringe of Republicans, but the trend among Independents is in continuous decline. It is also noted that a portion of the Democrats who voted for him a year ago are now regretful.
Trump may be considered a poor governor and a prominent member among the autocratic leaders who are in charge of various countries, but I am sure he knows what all of them know: the essential thing is not to lose power. To achieve this, these people create fictions and false narratives, especially those that can most instil fear, destabilise the electorate, and stimulate hatred against segments of society that can be accused of being outsiders and having different behaviours.
He tried to do this with the winner of the election for New York City mayorship, Zohran Mamdani. This candidate, who ended up defeating not only Trump but also the usual Democratic Party elites, met all the conditions to be an easy political target: Muslim by religion, democratic socialist by conviction, and the son of immigrant parents of Afro-Indostanic origin. He won and showed that religion or immigrant status are not arguments that weigh heavily in an advanced democratic society. Sadiq Khan, the Labour mayor of London, had already demonstrated this when he was elected in 2016. In 2018, Khan was considered by Time magazine one of the 100 most influential people on the planet. I do not see any Portuguese politician on the Time lists.
In the next 12 months, before the federal Congressional mid-term elections, Trump will try to sabotage the governance of Mamdani and the two now-elected governors. He will do the same against all Democrats leading other states and cities. This is how the falsified narrative of the opponents' incompetence is constructed. He will also continue the deployment of National Guard military personnel to Democrat-majority cities, to establish in the public opinion the idea that the Democratic opposition is synonymous with social chaos and an inability to fight crime.
At the international level, he will seek to demonstrate a firm, warrior-like hand against Venezuela, Colombia, and Nigeria, among others.
After these defeats, Trump will play hard and dirty, accentuating his authoritarianism. Will Americans and Europeans have the courage to raise their voices and say no, enough is enough?
P.S. Note: This the AI translation of my op-ed of today 7/11/2025 published in Lisbon in the daily "Diário de Notícias"
