A clown´s death

Today´s words should not go beyond Aleppo, Syria. The civilian population in some areas of the city is being targeted and indiscriminately killed. The atrocities have reached a new level of savagery these last few days. Some of the most emblematic civilians died during this last series of bombardments. Including the 24-year-old Anas al-Basha, a young man who has kept many besieged children happy as he played the clown in between the falling bombs. Yesterday, one of those missiles fell on him. It came from the Assad men. So other people say it was a Russian plane´s job. The fact of the matter is that his death and that of many children, men and women should not be allowed to go silent any longer. 

Renzi´s fall and our worries

Italy has known 63 governments since 1945. That´s a lot of instability during a long period of 70 years. And most likely, the current government, led by Matteo Renzi, will fall after this coming Sunday´s referendum. It´s certainly no good news. Particularly at a time when the Italian banking system and the economy require the support of a strong and stable Cabinet.

In Brussels and in the financial centres of Europe most people believe that there will be no negative impact if Renzi falls and becomes just a caretaker Prime Minister. They have basically in mind the European politics and the markets.

But I think they are a bit short-sighted.

First, there will a very serious impact on the internal politics of Italy. That will give an additional chance to the 5-Star Movement and others, including the racist Lega Nord, to gain additional votes and mess up the domestic politics. Second, the banking system is in a far worst situation than we are prepared to accept. Cabinet needs to have full power to be able to adopt the measures that are required to address the banking crisis. Thirdly, the EU would certainly benefit from a stronger leader in Rome. Renzi has not been able to play an active role in European affairs. If he loses, but stays on, as interim leader, his intervention will be even lighter. If he goes, the new leader will be too busy trying to ground himself in the national politics to have time for Brussels.

For these reasons, one should be worried. 

A plan on migration and refugee matters

The European citizens have little trust left in the ability of the EU institutions and national governments when it comes to managing the migratory flows. Many think the matter is out of control and the politicians are just improvising and pretending. Consequently, that generates criticism, fear and additional support to radical views.

The political leaders must focus on convincing the public opinion that they have a proper plan to effectively respond to the mass arrivals of migrants and refugees. I would also underline that it is not just a question of defining the appropriate policy approach. The circumstances have reached a point and a time when people want to see determined action and understand that the measures that are being implemented are part of a coherent plan. 

French elections

The French Presidential election in May 2017 will be a defining moment for the future of the EU. It would be a major blow for those who believe in harmony in Europe to have the right-wing extremist Marine Le Pen, a xenophobic monster, to win that election. To defeat her is the chief task ahead for many of us in the EU, not just in France.

In some ways, the result of today´s race among the centre-right seven candidates is a step in the right direction. François Fillon, the front runner, is not a bad choice. He is certainly a much better option than the former President Nicolas Sarkozy, who has now been eliminated from the competition. He has much less baggage and he can attract a significantly larger number of voters. He is also a relatively fresh face in the French politics. That matters. Change is now a powerful political argument.

We have now to wait until next Sunday to see if Fillon is confirmed as the centre-right candidate for the presidency. We have also to see what the centre-left is going to decide. At present, it is unclear who will be running for the Socialist Party.

EU´s debate on security and defence

The on-going debate about the future of EU security and defence is excessively focused on the military dimensions. It is also incomplete in terms of understanding the meaning of European security and the complementarity links – and the differences as well – between both concepts. Furthermore, many of the responses that are put forward do not match the new nature of the risks and threats our Europe is confronted with. The understanding of the intents that move our adversaries and enemies is good. But the proposed set of actions are too conventional and too narrow. On the opposite side, we see the enemies playing complex hybrid packages against us. Actually, their main lines of intervention go far beyond the hard military means. They also go far beyond the traditional diplomatic adversarial politics. They are multidimensional, subtle and very often take advantage of our own internal divisions. We should not limit ourselves to military options. That would be in deep contradiction with what we have been talking about during the last six or so years in terms of a comprehensive approach to crisis management.

But there are other points that are also missing. First, the strengthening of national police services. Second, the call for greater cooperation between member States in matters of police investigation, information sharing and joint detailed analysis and interpretation of the data collected. Third, the augmenting of national intelligence resources, which are extremely limited in some of our States, including in those that have recently experienced terrorist incidents. Fourth, the sharing of information between the military and the police intelligence services.

The EU Army: No, thank you!

The talk about building a “EU army” is not wise. It is another example of the high propensity some Europeans leaders have when it comes to shooting themselves on the foot.

The EU defense is very much linked to the strengthening of NATO and also to a clear political will to put some key assets and some highly specialised military people together in a common pool.

To invest resources on a separate EU force is too divert and spread out resources that are already very scarce. It will result in a weaker NATO and in an extremely ineffective EU military establishment. We should oppose that. 

On fighting demagoguery

When the demagogues are at the gate, we should not hesitate. It´s time to be clear about their intent, their lies, and their attempts to take control of our lives, to usurp political power. We have to fight back.

To remain silent, when confronted with political monsters, leads to tyranny and disaster. And we should not see them just as laughing matter. There is nothing fun about firebrands and manipulators.

The best way to combat them is to make use of their own arguments and turn them upside down. To show their dangerous, ridiculous, and false facets.

It is also important to address the concerns of those who give space and credibility to the demagogues. They cannot be ignored. They should not be demeaned. They have to be won to the side of reason and moderation. We must walk to them. 

Trump and the EU´s position

At this early stage, the leaders of the EU institutions, especially the President of the European Commission and the head of the European External Action Service (EEAS), should be very prudent and diplomatic when referring to Donald Trump´s election win.

They for sure have their own personal opinions about the incoming President. That´s fine. They also have some serious apprehensions about the future of the US relations with the EU. That´s fine as well.

But at this time of the game, it pays to be extremely formal, diplomatic and patient. Diplomacy helps to smooth things out, as it often does between countries that share interests. And patience is fundamental to keep a strong negotiating position.

Killing grounds

Hillary Clinton lost the election. She was by far the best candidate. The televised debates have shown that with great clarity. But that is no longer enough to carry the voters with you. To win, in today´s connected world, you have to show no mercy and spend day and night, and every other opportunity, attacking the image of your key opponent. Regarding your adversary, the more destructive you are, the greater the chances of winning the contest. After the victory, you can smile and say some nice things. The power is already in your lap.

The image issue

The EU Commission should demonstrate they are in charge, in those matters they have authority to take decisions. And it should also be able to show a couple of positive actions. Both are urgent. The image remains the main battle field and it is deteriorating. That calls for a major change.

In support of democracy in Turkey

I have a lot of admiration for the Turkish people that dare to come to the public squares and streets to demonstrate for human rights and democracy. Besides this appreciation, there isn´t much we can do, here in Europe, to support their risky struggle. To recognise their courage is just a small gesture. It is however important. It is a way of saying that the current actions by the Turkish government do not respect the accepted democratic standards. And to that, we can add, with great concern, a very clear statement: if the authorities continue the current policy of mass repression that will generate, sooner or later, a major civil crisis. Too bad, as it will happen in a region that is already experiencing major disruptions and unacceptable levels of violence.

Oettinger has lost his authority

Last week, the EU Commissioner Guenther Oettinger made some racist and noticeably stupid remarks during a public formal address to German business people. This was not his first encounter with arrogant foolishness. But this time he had targeted an official Chinese delegation, the gay community as well as the political leadership of Wallonia, in Belgium. That makes too many important targets.

As his remarks became known, through the social media, the man himself became a major embarrassment to the EU Commission. Jean-Claude Juncker felt compelled to advise his Commissioner that an apology was needed. Oettinger finally came out with a statement that he sees as a regret.

That´s not enough. These are trying times for the EU institutions. We expect the people in charge of the institutions to respond to the highest standards required for public office. Oettinger should be told to go. Discreetly but firmly. That´s the only way to deal with the jokers. The only way to properly lead the EU and re-establish its authority. 

Back to the classics

"Silence is one of the great arts of conversation."

Marcus Tullius Cicero

On Turkey and Iraq

At the same time the offensive against the Islamic State terrorists moves on towards Mosul city, we have seen a very serious Turkish military build-up on the border areas with Iraq. Apparently the leadership in Ankara has decided to launch a major armed operation inside Iraq, as a means of stopping the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).

This Kurdish group is seen as major threat by the Turkish government.

But one should be aware that any major military incursion into Iraq would further complicate a very delicate and dangerous situation. The Turkish authorities have the right to defend their borders. There is no ambiguity about that. However, they should refrain from getting deeply involved in the internal affairs of Iraq. That would add fire to the region.