EU needs to change coaches

A man that knows the EU well told me this evening that the high rates of unemployment are turning people against the European project. The first line of attack is against the Euro currency, he added. More and more people are looking at the common currency as an impediment for “their” nation’s recovery.  He also told me that there is serious concern in the leading circles of the EU as they see public opinion turning gradually against the Euro in a number of countries.

I told him if the common project were a football team the solution would be very clear: let’s fire the coach and get a new one. 

Mandela, an exemplary leader

Our thoughts today are with Nelson Mandela. We owe him much, as an exemplary leader and a politician that transformed his time, not to feel very sorry as he struggles with illness and old age. 

Too big a machinery for tiny gains

National security is a critical function of any state. But it has to be carried out in a reasonable and legal manner, with full respect for the rights and liberties of the citizens. It should not become an obsession, an over-riding set of operations that want to cover everything, collect all kinds of information, employ disproportionate means and spend extravagant amounts of money.  

What we have been told during the last few days shows that in the area of national security it is very easy to go over the limits and be guided by the interests of those who work in the sector rather than by the nation’s interest.

It is also pretty easy to drown in an ocean of useless information, that is collected just to justify the size of the machinery, and lose sight of the targets that really matter. 

Bilderberg: a Western old men's joke

Today you and I know that we do not matter. Our names are not in the list of those attending this year’s Bilderberg Conference. This is annual secret get-together of politicians and businessmen that many see as the plotting house of the world. It is indeed a very secretive meeting, its list of attendees is small but powerful, and there are many conspiracy theories about the contents and intent of such annual meetings.

In the 2013 edition, that is just under way in the UK for the first time – the tradition is to have the meetings in the US – there are about 140 participants. Only 14 are women, which seems to show that when it comes to combining power and secrecy the big men do not trust the other gender. Also very interesting, almost everyone in attendance, with one exception, I think, is from a North-American or West European background. This seriously undermines the importance of the Bilderberg process: the world today is much bigger than the White Circles of the West. Even when those circles are bankers, media gurus, and their politicians. 

Syria's humanitarian disaster

The UN humanitarian appeal for Syria, launched today in Geneva, is the largest in the history of the organization: US $4.4 billion, to cover the basic needs up to the end of the year. This stunning figure gives a clear indication of the size of the humanitarian disaster that is taking place in Syria and in the refugee camps, just outside the country.  The survival of about 50% of Syria’s population is at risk.

Is the appeal going to be responded to? Very often these days such calls are addressed to ears that pretend to be deaf. Let’s see, for instance, if all those governments that have been very quick at approving the supply of arms to both sides in conflict are as fast when it comes to the humanitarian dimensions. 

Erdogan's game

I do not think Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish Prime Minister, is not listening to the protesters in Istanbul and elsewhere in the country. In my opinion, he is very much aware of the reasons for the demonstrations. He knows that many people in the big cities are opposed to his politics of “cultural change”. But he is inspired by a very strict approach to religion and does not want to give up. He thinks he is in a mission, to bring Islam back to the centre of public life in Turkey. He knows that many traditional sectors of society welcome that kind of approach. Therefore, there is political mileage in pursuing it, he believes. As he also seems to believe that he can do with the opponents in the cities as he did with the top military officers: to intimidate them, to put the leaders in prison, under bizarre charges, to invent treason plots, to silence them. He might be convinced he will succeed. I wouldn’t be so sure. 

Syria's opposition is too divided

The extreme fragmentation of the Syrian opposition has become their most critical weakness.  Just in the area next to the Golan Heights, a very small part of the territory, there are about nine independent armed groups, if we can believe a generally well-informed intelligence service operating in the neighbourhood. In this circumstance, it is quite clear that it is not in the interest of the Assad regime to negotiate with the rebels. The regime believes they can gradually crush each armed group, one by one, as they did today in the strategically important city of Al-Qusayr. Therefore, the official doctrine in Damascus is to bet on a military solution. What is the Western response to this? And the Security Council's?

Portuguese politics

An opinion poll released this morning shows that 22% of the Portuguese voters would vote for the Communists and the leftist party called Boco de Esquerda. It is indeed the radical left that would take greater advantage of the social malaise that defines the country's current political situation.

The Socialists, a centre-left party, would however be the election winner, with 32.7% of the votes. But this result is not good enough and would call for a coalition with a smaller party. The most likely candidate would be the centre-right CDS, which represents 9.5% of the electorate.

Well, CDS is at present in government as a junior partner in a conservative coalition. One can expect the Socialists to take all kinds of initiatives to poison the existing coalition and provoke fresh elections as soon as possible. If they do not manage to bring the existing government down they will have to wait until 2015, when new elections are due. That’s a very long period for those who think they can get to power right away. 

Turkey on the streets

It is too early to be able to read the sense of the mass protests that are taking place in Istanbul, Ankara, and other cities of Turkey.

To call these demonstrations a “Turkish Spring” would be to ignore that the situation in Turkey is not comparable to those prevailing in North Africa and some parts of the Middle East. The country is a democracy. One might disagree with the political philosophy that inspires Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his party, but one has to recognise that he has won the vote and has, in many ways, changed the country for the better.

However, Erdogan has to listen to facts and to the people on the streets. Turkey is not prepared for a more religious kind of approach to political life. And the Prime Minister should also understand that an electoral victory is not a licence to brush aside the opposing views. He won his fight against the military establishment, in some cases through very unorthodox and questionable means. But he cannot win against the people. 

UN cannot be silent about Syria

When it comes to the Syrian crisis, it is sad to note that the UN has lost the initiative. Even statements by top level UN officials about the dramatic situation the country is living have disappeared from the radar screen.

Some of us are afraid that one or two big nations might have sent a message to the UN Secretariat, something along the line: “Keep off!”

The UN cannot keep off a profound national crisis such as the Syrian one. It cannot. The human costs are too high. And the political risks for peace in the region are too many. Today more than ever.