Pakistan should not get involved in the Yemen conflict

Saudi Arabia has requested Pakistan to be part of the coalition that has been formed to fight the Houthi rebels in Yemen.

There is a very close diplomatic relationship between Riyadh and Islamabad. The Pakistani leadership, and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif above all, owe a big chunk of their political survival to the support they received from the Saudis. Furthermore, Pakistan has a significant military capacity that could contribute to the war against the rebels.

But any direct involvement of Pakistan in Yemen would have deep consequences, both domestically and in the region.

Internally, it would further alienate the Shia population of Pakistan, a minority segment of the population – they represent about 15% of the country´s population – and create more friction and violence between rival sects and ethnic groups. We cannot forget that some ethnic groups are linked to similar groups in Iran, a country that is somehow close to the Houthis in Yemen.

Externally, Pakistan´s participation would mean an additional escalation of a conflict that is already gaining a regional dimension. By this time the situation is already very delicate. Any expansion of the Yemen´s conflict should be seen with deep concern.

On the road to the UN´s top position

The French President has awarded today the “Légion d´Honneur”, at the senior level of Commander, to the Director-General of UNESCO, Ms. Irina Bokova.

The DG is a Bulgarian citizen and that part of Europe is in the race to get the top position at the United Nations, once the mandate of Ban Ki-moon is over.

I thought this could be a clear indication that Paris would support Ms. Bokova´s bid to become the next UN Secretary-General. She has been quiet clear about her determination to fight for the position.

But the distinction can also be a consolation prize. They might have decided to say no to her ambition and then present her with a very high honour as a gesture to keep her reasonably gratified…

Time will make it clear. 

Time for a serious overhaul of Kenya´s security apparatus

Kenya is very vulnerable to Al-Shabaab´s terrorist enterprises. 

There is the long border with Somalia, the home base for this radical group. In addition, Kenya has a large segment of its population with Somali ethnic roots. Many of them are Kenyan citizens, others are refugees who ran away from decades of violent conflict, drought and misery in Somalia. Some might feel discriminated and marginalised but they try to cope with their situation and are only concerned by making ends meet. They are peaceful people. A few of them can however, for clan-related reasons, provide some cover to extremists. 

That´s why a greater reliance of people´s participation in their own security is essential. The security services have to link better with the citizens and cultivate a relationship of trust. 

The combat against terrorist violence in Kenya calls for a new way of collecting intelligence. That´s probably the most important step that is required at this stage. It should however be complemented by additional investments in counter-insurgency training and better coordination between the defence forces and the security services. 

A good framework deal with Iran

The perseverance has paid off and we have now the framework on a nuclear agreement with Tehran. This is good news at a time when good news from that part of the world are few and far apart.

As I said before, we should trust the negotiators and accept the deal as genuine step forward. This should be the position of every truthful leader. In the US, the right-wingers in the Republican Party are not prepared to see it from this perspective. They are even saying that they will call off the agreement if they get to the presidency in 2017. Such statements are very difficult to accept by the public opinion on our side of the ocean. And they make it more difficult for those in Europe that advocate for a strong partnership with the US. 

A deal on Iran´s nuclear programme should be possible

The nuclear deal with Iran is important for all parties. But it needs to be very clear in its details and monitoring mechanisms. It´s therefore preferable to extend the negotiations than to rush through an agreement that is incomplete and ambiguous. It has taken very long to reach the stage where we find ourselves today. It is therefore worth to continue the discussions for a few more days and weeks if the intent is to reach an accord that is credible and acceptable to all sides, including to those who do not sit at the Lausanne table of negotiations but keep a close eye on what is going on. They are actually those who need to be fully convinced that the deal is good. 

Nigeria´s electoral process is moving better than anticipated

So far, so good! That´s the happy comment one can make tonight regarding the presidential elections in Nigeria. The process might have had some flaws but for now both key candidates seem prepared to accept the outcome of the elections. Outgoing President Goodluck Jonathan has surprised us with his mature acceptance of defeat. He has congratulate his opponent, the yet-to-be-officially declared winner, general Buhari. This is a great move by someone that has been a messy president but, in the end, has shown great sense of duty and a strong commitment to a peaceful transition in Nigeria. 

Tunisia should count with the European support

The popular rally against terrorism that today brought thousands of people to the main avenues of the Tunisian capital should be seen as a sign of hope. I am also pleased to see François Hollande and Matteo Renzi among the crowd. European leaders have to be seen as supporting the struggle of the Tunisian people against all types of violent extremists. 

Poor weather in the EU capital

Poor weather in Brussels today. Time thus to get ready for my quarterly meeting on peace building. And to realise that there is no strategy, in my part of the world, to deal with the current turmoil in the Middle East. More than ever, the piecemeal approach is the one that dictates the policy. Even so, I am not sure we have a clear policy for each case that is developing in the region. Maybe influenced by the weather, I come to the conclusion that the approaches we are now following are very tentative and full of messy actions. With the exception, maybe, of the dialogue with Iran on the nuclear issues. But the nuclear package is only one dimension of what our Iranian policy should be. Are we connecting it with the rest?

Yemen needs dialogue not bombs

It´s not a great idea to have a coalition of Sunni Arab states deeply involved in war operations inside Yemen. They are fighting the Shia-inspired Houthi rebels, who are seen as promoting Iran´s interests in the vital region that Yemen controls. But they have never engaged any action against the extremists of Al-Qaeda who have been operating in Yemen for a number of years and are a real threat to regional peace and stability.

Yemen is now a chaotic state. It needs all support it can get to bring the different ethnic and religious factions to the dialogue table and also to effectively combat the extremists. These are indeed the couple of priorities that should be in the minds of those who have some kind of influence in the region. 

Guinea-Bissau

One of the forgotten countries is Guinea-Bissau, in West Africa. It has been in and out of crisis for the last seventeen years or so. Furthermore, it’s a tiny country with very little strategic interest. It was therefore easy to ignore it and to be blind to the plight of its population.

In Brussels today, after many years of hesitation, there has been a donors ‘meeting on Guinea-Bissau. The preliminary outcome is encouraging. The door for re-engagement has been open. The next step is to make sure that the commitments made by both sides, the government and the external partners, are indeed implemented. So often, these undertakings remain unfulfilled or are to slow to implement. And the blame game starts.

Let´s hope this time we will see a faster move. The people of Guinea-Bissau would certainly deserve it.