US and the EU

We have to get used and draw the consequences but the fact of the matter is that today´s US public opinion is less interested in European matters. Europe has lost space in the American political agenda.

My very best wishes

In my part of Europe, a region that has Brussels at the centre, about 60% of the citizens see 2017 with some apprehension. This disquiet results from a combination of different factors, including the unresolved issues related to mass migrations, domestic and international security, the uncertainty that comes out of the US presidential elections, and the perceived lack of leadership in some of our key European countries and the impact that might have on the future of the EU. Brexit, interestingly, is not at this stage considered as a major problem.

Nonetheless, the majority of the people are still very much in favour of the EU. It is important to sustain such support. And that responsibility should lie mainly in the hands of the national leaders. They should stop the practice of blaming the Brussels institutions or the European Central Bank for their domestic difficulties. We ought to be firm on this and openly criticise those who keep doing it in 2017. They are not the kind of politicians we need now.

This is a time to be positive. And fight for a stronger, clear-cut political New Year.

To say thank you to Ban Ki-moon

Ban Ki-moon has left the UN Secretariat building today, at the end of his second mandate.

He spent the last ten years at the UN helm. I worked directly under him during a few years and can´t let him go without saying that he has always tried to do his best as Secretary-General.

People have criticised his low profile style, his communication skills, and his indecision in some critical moments, and so on. But they have forgotten he comes from a very different cultural and civilizational background, one that is more inclined to pursue dialogue and harmony instead of our Western way that puts a premium on personal confrontation. And many have also been blind to his tremendous efforts on climate change, on improving the work of the Security Council, on gender, the protection of civilians, and on enhancing the coordination with the regional organisations, such as the African Union, the EU and NATO. He has managed to keep the bridges open with the key members of the UN Security Council and that´s in itself a major achievement.

We should be mindful to the fact that the UN is an extremely complex organisation. It is the meeting point of all the national interests as the member States perceive them. The Secretary-General is caught in that dense web of narrow interests. He has immense authority, it is true, but it is also seen by the States as their top international civil servant. That´s not a very easy position.

I think it is fair to say goodbye to Ban Ki-moon on a positive note.

Syria´s broken deals

The rumours about the Syria´s talks sponsored by Russia are in the air. Turkey and Iran would also be god fathering the process.

One of questions – and there are many difficult ones – concerns the price Russia will have to pay to get Turkey on its side, in particular when it comes to accepting Assad´s continuation as head of State for a few more years.

My impression is that such price is related to the future of the Syrian Kurdish militia YPG. To get Erdogan on its side, Putin might have agreed to start attacking the YPG forces one off these days. The pretext would be that the Kurds are not part of the peace deal and should therefore be considered as terrorists. That Russian move would respond to a major strategic goal for the Turks: to prevent the Kurds from establishing any stronghold in Syria.

But all this is heavy on wishful thinking. The complexity of the situation on the ground is such that a deal like the one being prepared by this trio is far from being done. Particularly because it is not an inclusive one as it excludes not only the Kurds but others. And also because Assad is now convinced he can achieve a military solution. 

Holidays and the change that is coming

Christmas 2016 is about to happen. It is therefore time to close this shop for a few days and enjoy the family.

But before closing for the holidays, I spent a bit of time thinking about the role of the elites as we get closer to the New Year and all the changes it will bring, in the US, in the UN, and also in some parts of the EU, in particular those more affected by the Brexit discussions, the nationalism extreme and the related immigration issues, security challenges, and by complex electoral processes. Elites will have to be very clear in their communication endeavours, very sensitive to the difficulties and anxiety many people face, and also very responsible when talking about the way forward. The interaction between the elites and the ordinary citizen will be a major issue as we get back from the holidays and start confronting the world of 2017.

The New Year this time will bring a real change.

In the meantime, let´s enjoy the break. Happy holidays, then.

On domestic security matters

The concept of “war against terrorism” is not appropriate for our European societies. We are not at war. We have a very serious challenge in terms of domestic security. But it is a security issue to be dealt with by the police and the internal intelligence services. War would mean a major disruption of normalcy. We want to keep the same routines and be convinced that the security services are indeed equipped to match the challenge. They might of course be supported by the armed forces. But that support has to be much smarter than just placing a few soldiers in shopping malls and other public spaces. The politicians need to understand that the military can do much better things than just standing out there.

Responding to terrorism with wisdom

Yesterday´s horrendous attack in Berlin cannot be used by the extreme right to further their hate campaign. We should not allow it to happen.

The people responsible for the violence are terrorists and they should be dealt as such. We cannot fall into stereotypes and start looking at every refugee as a potential threat. Refugees are just fellows like you and me. The main difference is that they had to run for their lives. They are not in the business of taking other people´s lives. The criminal that comes to us and tries to do us harm is just that, a criminal. He might represent a new type of danger. But that´s the world of today, the upshot of some very serious crises in different parts of the world.

This seems to be understood by the vast majority of the German people. They are deeply sad and disturbed but they remain calm and have demonstrated they do not fall in the trap the extremists are so good at laying. We should share their pain but also their wisdom. 

Russia and Turkey: a relationship beyond death

The assassination of the Russian Ambassador to Turkey should be condemned with very strong words. It is clearly an act that can have no justification. And it will not contribute a single inch to the solution of the tragic situation the Syrian population is going through.

It would also be a mistake to think that this vile act will have a major impact on the relations between Russia and Turkey. This is no time for exaggerations. And both countries seem to have find a common interest: to sort out the destiny of Syria without involving other major international players into the game.

I am afraid however that this sad incident of today might give the Turkish authorities an additional excuse to intensify the ongoing climate of repression. The Police could be the main target. But it will also spill over into other sectors of the nation. And it will be a harsh response. One reason could be to show to the Russians that the Turkish government is not taking this murder lightly. The other one would certainly be related to the continuing plan to silence any opposition to Erdogan´s authoritarian rule.

Against populist ideas

It would be inexcusable to remain silent and not denouncing the populist proposals that might create serious political damage. Indeed, I see it as my duty to combat that kind of propaganda. And I also believe that such struggle has to be based on clear arguments and on very strong words. Ambiguity means nothing when fighting populism. It gives room for accusations of duplicity and weakness of character.  To be polite is no solution either. Populism must be ridiculed. It also needs to be destabilised. 

We should feel deeply challenged

Syria has become the most visible and most dramatic example of the UN Security Council´s failures. It patently shows that the Council´s arrangement is about the Permanent Members ‘interests, and not about international peace and security. And it is also a most shocking reminder that it is time to find a better arrangement to protect civilians and civilisation. To accept without profound indignation what is going on in Aleppo and elsewhere should be out of question.

However, it is not just about Syria or its vicinity. It is also the suffering in South Sudan, Myanmar and some other parts of the world. And the extreme poverty many face on a daily basis. All that is just a reminder of the incapacity of the Council to properly address the major crises and challenges that put so many lives at stake.

It is also a call to think differently about the future and a new international order.