Adversaries and enemies

Always blame your adversary but concentrate your fighting power on your enemy. 

No problem, as long as we are true to ourselves

In matters of politics, it’s OK to fail, if we have genuinely tried.

It's all Theresa May's fault!

In the UK, key Conservative opinion makers are now in a campaign to place all the blame on Prime Minister Theresa May.

Uncertainty, even confusion, and growing resentment define the current British political climate. Like the proverbial meteorology of those Isles, the climate around Brexit is foggy and unpleasant.

And they are openly saying, it is May’s fault! They add then: it comes from her lack of true enthusiasm for the exit ideals. Those Conservatives – and they are quite influential in the mainstream right-wing media, not just in the tabloid sheets – want to divert people’s attention from the inescapable issue, meaning, that the UK needs to agree on an exit deal with the EU. And that inevitable deal is the one that has been on the table since November 2018.

They also want to present some crazies – Jacob Rees-Mogg, Boris Johnson, David Davis, Dominic Raab, Ian Duncan Smith, among others – as true patriots, people that can take over from Theresa May and move the UK to the centre of the world.

Really? Well, with their Victorian way of looking at Britain and Europe, they might be able to bring the country back to the XIX Century. And make it imperial again!

Kim's vital agenda

You meet, negotiate and believe in Kim Jong-un at your own risk. And that’s a very high level of risk, I should add. Nevertheless, it must be done, and surely, with no illusion about the person who is sitting on the other side of the table.

Kim’s ultimate objective is to remain in power. He has no other option, if one considers the criminal and violent actions that he has behind him. Power means impunity. Absolute power means total impunity. In such circumstances, he is determined to decisively tackle anything that might challenge his goal.

I think he believes that the vital threat to his continued control of the North Korean system comes from the other side of the border, from South Korea. Not because of South Korea’s military might, no. It is because of the economic success and the type of society that South Korea represents. That, sooner or later, will end up by having a major impact on the attitude of the population in the North. It has the potential to be the key source of instability.  

Therefore, he wants to keep some kind of superiority vis-à-vis the South. And the only one he can bet on is on the military side. But for that, he must get the Americans out of South Korea. That’s what he is trying to achieve.

At the same time, he is also looking for an end to the economic sanctions. He knows that the sanctions bite. They make the comparison between the standards of living in the North and the South even more dangerous.

These are two elements that must remain at the centre of any future round of negotiations. And please, no illusions, no unnecessary warmth. 

The Hanoi autocrats

The outcome of the Hanoi meeting – no agreement, not even a joint final lunch, let alone a joint statement – should be seen as a reminder that diplomacy is a complex and lengthy process. It cannot just be reduced to two strong men meeting together. Moreover, when these men are markedly narcissistic leaders, well known for their inability to listen to advisors and other common mortals.

President Trump and Chairman Kim should only meet when all the preparatory work has been completed and every line of any draft agreement is ready to be blessed. The negotiations should not be directly and personally undertaken by these two autocrats. (If you prefer, call them rulers…).

Their meeting can only take place when there is a landmark to be announced or as a final step in the process. Then, they sit together, offer all the possible photo opportunities, and give credibility and trust to the agreement achieved by their respective negotiators.

The only problem is that both leaders are unique cases. They only trust their own judgement like any disastrous strongman we have known in the history books.

Brexit: time to approve the deal

Brexit, again! At this stage, I see no strong reason for the EU leaders to accept a short time extension of Article 50. The legal exit date is 29 March. An extension can only be granted if it is grounded on a well-defined reason. Seen from Brussels, the best reason would be to give time to the British institutions to approve the additional legislation that would regulate the different aspects of an orderly exit. That would basically mean the exit deal should be passed by the UK Parliament before 29 March. If that is not the case, the Brexit matter should be put to a new popular vote. And then the choice would be between the deal, as signed off by the Prime Minister, or no Brexit. The No Deal option is too catastrophic. It should not be in the ballot paper.

The scheduling of a new referendum – the popular vote mentioned above – would be the only reasonable justification for the EU heads to accept an extension.

However, I do not see much of a chance for a new people’s vote on Brexit. The political conditions are not there. The new approach by the Labour party in favour of a referendum comes too late to be of any value.

Thus, the realistic option is to fight for a yes vote in Westminster. That would approve the existing draft deal. With maybe one or two appended sentences, that would give the tough MPs within Theresa May’s party an excuse to change their opinion and vote for it. However, such approval must happen in the next two weeks. It’s late in the day, but still within a manageable time frame. Beyond that period, if there is no clarification, one can only expect a much higher level of confusion, including within the Conservative party. And a serious impact on the daily lives of many.  

A bad day for President Trump

Michael Cohen’s most amazing testimony before Congress has completely obfuscated the Hanoi Summit. That’s something President Donald Trump will not forget. But there are many other revelations in Cohen’s evidence that will remain for very long in the President’s mind.

The problem is that they have also caught the attention of Robert Mueller and other prosecutors, in addition to the members of Congress. As such, we can expect very turbulent days ahead for the US President.

It’s true that many will try to dismiss the accusations by saying that Cohen is not credible and that all this is about partisanship politics. Fine, it might work. However, these Cohen facts and stories are very serious allegations. They can be politically fought, certainly defeated. And I do not know how the legal people will act on them. But I am certain that the history will not be kind when judging the current President. And for someone like Donald Trump, the image that will remain in the books is a critical issue. Today, I am sure he is a very unhappy man, notwithstanding the symbolic hugs he got from Kim Jong-Un.

EU and Arab Nations: lots to discuss

The European Union (still 28 States at the time of the meeting..) and the Arab League (22 States) first-ever summit has just taken place in Egypt. The joint statement can be read at:

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2019/02/25/sharm-el-sheikh-summit-declaration/

Hanoi or Venezuela: better, Hanoi!

For the US leadership, all the attention must be focused on the Hanoi summit. The meeting between President Trump and Chairman Kim is the week’s highlight. It must be seen and reported as excellent. Venezuela cannot be a distraction. There will be some diplomatic tightening, some additional isolation of Nicolas Maduro, a couple or so of rambunctious statements and sound bites, but nothing else. Nothing that could steal the headlines from Donald Trump in Hanoi.

Unless the Hanoi meeting goes wrong. It’s not expected, it has been prepared with great attention to sound good. But we never know. It could derail. Then, the usual suspects will be looking for a distraction, for other news that could grab the world’s attention. And that kind of news could be some foolish action regarding the situation in Venezuela.

The Venezuela plan

All the signs seem to indicate that there is a plan to deal with Maduro and the power struggle in Venezuela. That plan can only come from people that have a lot of experience with scene setting and related strategic moves. Where do we find such people? And, second question, how legitimate is such a plan? And, final key question: can it work in a political environment like the one we presently have in Venezuela?

Let’s see what the next few days bring in our direction. And at what cost.