Saturday, 1 November 2025

A proposal for a Consolidated Peace Framework for Ukraine

This is a formal policy document draft to establish a structured, enforceable roadmap for ending hostilities, restoring stability, and ensuring long-term peace between Ukraine and the Russian Federation. It should be refined through bilateral and group consultations, and then proposed by the UN Secretary-General. 


Executive Summary

This framework outlines a phased approach to achieving peace in Ukraine, balancing sovereignty, security, humanitarian needs, and international engagement and oversight. It is designed to be incremental, verifiable, and supported by global stakeholders, preferably under a UN Security Council Resolution.


I. Guiding Principles

  • Respect for Sovereignty and Territorial Integrity: Ukraine’s internationally recognised borders remain the ultimate objective.
  • Non-Recognition of Annexation: No territorial changes will be legitimised through force.
  • Humanitarian Priority: Immediate protection of civilians and infrastructure.
  • Incremental Implementation: Each phase contingent on verified compliance.
  • International Oversight: Neutral bodies ensure transparency and enforcement.

II. Framework Structure

Phase 1: Immediate Ceasefire and Stabilisation

  • Mutual cessation of hostilities within 24 hours of signing.
  • Freeze current lines of contact as a temporary measure.
  • Deploy UN/OSCE monitoring teams with satellite and drone verification.

Phase 2: Security Guarantees

  • Binding security assurances for Ukraine from guarantor states (G7 + EU+ G20).
  • Establish demilitarised buffer zones along the contact line.
  • Russia withdraws heavy weapons from frontline areas.

Phase 3: Governance and Political Dialogue

  • No formal recognition of annexation; status of occupied territories deferred.
  • Create a Transitional Governance Council for disputed regions with Ukrainian representation and neutral observers.
  • Guarantee cultural and linguistic rights under Ukrainian law.

Phase 4: Humanitarian Measures

  • Immediate return of deported Ukrainian children and release of POWs.
  • Safe corridors for civilian evacuation and aid delivery.
  • Joint task force to secure nuclear facilities and critical infrastructure in close liaison with IAEA.

Phase 5: Economic Reconstruction and Sanctions Roadmap

  • Establish Ukraine Reconstruction Fund financed by frozen Russian assets and international donors.
  • Implement phased sanctions relief for Russia, conditional on compliance.
  • Prioritise investment in housing, energy, and transport networks.

Phase 6: International Oversight

  • Form a Peace Implementation Council, if possible under the supervision of the UN Security Council, and chaired by a neutral international figure.
  • Consider UN peacekeeping mission from neutral countries.
  • Compliance reviews every 90 days.

Phase 7: Long-Term Political Commitments

  • Continue Ukraine’s EU accession process without obstruction.
  • NATO membership excluded during transitional period; Ukraine retains defensive military rights.
  • Sign a non-aggression pact backed by international guarantees.

III. Enforcement and Accountability

  • Violations trigger automatic suspension of sanctions relief and reconstruction funding.
  • War crimes accountability mechanisms integrated into later phases.
  • Dispute resolution through the International Court of Justice or agreed arbitration panels.

IV. Timeline

  • Phase 1: Within 24 hours of agreement.
  • Phase 2–4: Within 3–6 months.
  • Phase 5–7: Progressive implementation over 2–5 years.

V. Stakeholder Roles

  • Ukraine & Russia: Primary parties to the agreement.
  • Guarantor States: Provide security assurances and financial support. Composition to be agreed by Ukraine and Russia.
  • International Organisations (UN, OSCE, EU): Oversight, monitoring, and peacekeeping. Also institution-building. 
  • Civil Society & NGOs: Humanitarian aid and reconstruction support.


Friday, 31 October 2025

President Trump in Asia: Power, Adulation, and the Rearrangement of Forces in a New Era

My geopolitical calendar differs from the conventional one. The twentieth century era, marked by two major wars, the Cold War, decolonisation, and large-scale industrial expansion, ended in 1991 with the collapse of the Soviet Union. That is when, in my reading of history, the twenty-first century began. We entered a period of economic globalisation, multilateralism and international cooperation, the development of democratic regimes, and a focus on sustainability and major global challenges.

My calendar also tells me that the twenty-first century was rather short. It seems to have ended with Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Times changed then, with a return to former practices, the undisguised use of military and economic force as determining factors in international relations. At the same time, we have witnessed an accelerated race towards the future, driven by technological transformations and the digital revolution. The concern about inequalities between peoples has given way to insensitivity regarding development issues.

We are now in a strange and ambiguous period of universal history: we live simultaneously in the past and the future. We are connected by thousands of fibre optic cables and an increasing number of satellites. Global information is instantaneous, but it seems we are rapidly returning to old nationalist ideas, to every man for himself.

Indifference has become a distinctive feature of this new era. The excess of data ends up anaesthetising us. We become oblivious to what happens outside our immediate circle. This apathy makes it easier for populist, extremist political leaders to manipulate public opinion, using digital platforms to influence citizens’ behaviour. Paradoxically or not, the manipulators themselves end up listening to their own clamour and seem to believe the narratives they create. Thus, they fuel the cycle of misinformation and collective detachment from the major issues that remain unresolved.

In this context, commitment to critical thinking becomes fundamental. It is necessary to know how to question, analyse and interpret the intentions hidden in messages. Developing the ability to ask pertinent questions and assess the credibility of sources is essential to avoid manipulation and conformity. As Socrates argued 2,500 years ago, exploring alternative ideas and challenging established opinions is politically indispensable in a democracy.

This reflection originated from a recent comment made on one of our television channels about the new Russian nuclear-powered cruise missile, known in Russia as 9M730 Burevestnik and in NATO as Skyfall. Vladimir Putin announced that on 21 October the missile had been launched and that the test was a success. He added that the device had been airborne for 15 hours, covering more than 14,000 kilometres, and could therefore be directed at a target in the most remote corner of the planet. He also emphasised that no other state has the capability to intercept it. In other words, Russia was claiming to have taken another step towards consolidating its place at the forefront of the new era, the era of confrontation and force.

The commentator, a person I respect, said that Trump had “blithely” ignored Putin’s announcement. The reason for Trump’s indifference was missing.

I think it is relevant to try to understand this apparent disdain. I say apparent because yesterday the American president ordered his armed forces to begin a programme of nuclear tests, something that had not happened for more than three decades.

In my analysis, Trump, who has spent the week in Asia, is neither afraid of Russia nor particularly interested in Putin, except regarding the Russian war against Ukraine. He wants to add peace in Ukraine to his list of supposed peace treaties, always with the obsession for the Nobel Peace Prize. At this moment, today, Friday, he is convinced that Putin is the main obstacle to a ceasefire. Saturday, we shall see.

Apart from that, it has become clear in recent days that the absolute priority of the US administration is rivalry with China. His tour of Asia sought to demonstrate the influence and power of the United States in a region increasingly close to China. That is why Trump was in Malaysia, at the ASEAN summit, then in Japan, South Korea, and showed moderation at yesterday’s meeting with the Chinese president, Xi Jinping. In addition to trade agreements, several of them linked to cutting-edge technologies that will define the coming years, the success of Trump’s presence in Asia and the adulation he received reinforced his illusion that the US has decisive influence in that part of the globe. Putin’s missile, however powerful it may be—something yet to be confirmed—does not matter to Trump nor distract him, as he considers the fundamental priority to be relations with Asia, in the context of competition with China.

He makes, I believe, a superficial and mistaken reading of reality. He needs to understand that this new century, which began in 2022, seems to be heading towards the de facto consolidation of the strategic alliance between China and Russia.

Tuesday, 28 October 2025

Fiber Optic Communications Cables in a very sensitive region

 


Contingency Strategies for Undersea Cable Disruption

What happens if transatlantic data cables between Europe and the USA are severed? These cables carry over 95% of global internet traffic, making them critical for finance, security, and everyday communication.

Here are five key strategies to maintain resilience:


✅ Satellite communication networks
✅ Alternative cable routes
✅ Rapid repair and security fleets
✅ Space-based internet backups
✅ International coordination and cybersecurity, based on Public/Private Partnerships.

Monday, 27 October 2025

Donald Trump's visit to Japan

Today's Trump’s return to Tokyo signals more than a diplomatic courtesy—it’s a calculated move to reassert U.S. influence in Asia amid rising regional uncertainty. It aims at showing American power and leadership in East Asia. 

His meeting with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi underscores a push for a tougher stance on trade and security, likely aimed at countering China’s growing clout. While billed as alliance-strengthening, Trump's visit shows we are in a new era of transactional geopolitics, where economic leverage and strategic posturing dominate the narrative. As Trump emphasised, “the U.S.–Japan partnership must be stronger than ever to ensure stability and fairness in the region”—a clear nod to both security and trade dominance.

Saturday, 25 October 2025

Briefing Note: Russia’s Policies and Implications for APEC

Purpose

To inform APEC leaders of the strategic risks posed by Russia’s current foreign and economic policies and their potential impact on regional stability and economic cooperation.


Key Observations

  1. Militarisation and Geopolitical Assertiveness

    • Russia prioritises hard power over diplomacy, using the Ukraine conflict as leverage for global influence.
    • Increased military presence in the Arctic and Asia-Pacific signals readiness to escalate tensions, undermining regional security.
  2. Economic Weaponisation

    • Energy exports remain a geopolitical tool, with infrastructure projects used to divide allies.
    • Despite extensive sanctions, Russia sustains its war economy through alternative trade networks, deepening global fragmentation.
  3. Strategic Dependence

    • Russia’s “pivot to Asia” has led to structural reliance on China, limiting autonomy and raising long-term viability concerns.

Implications for APEC

  • Trade Disruption: Russia’s stance on sanctions and WTO mechanisms introduces friction into APEC’s consensus-driven model.
  • Security Spillover: Militarisation risks transforming economic forums into arenas of strategic rivalry.
  • Normative Erosion: Push for “multipolarity” challenges rules-based governance, creating uncertainty for smaller economies.

Recommended Actions

  • Reaffirm APEC’s Core Principles: Emphasise rules-based trade and economic cooperation.
  • Strengthen Collective Resilience: Diversify supply chains and enhance energy security to reduce vulnerability.
  • Engage with Caution: Maintain dialogue on economic issues while countering destabilising tactics through coordinated responses.

Bottom Line:
Russia’s policies combine revisionist geopolitics, economic opportunism, and strategic dependency. APEC must navigate engagement carefully to safeguard stability and uphold its mission of inclusive, sustainable growth.

Grok AI assessment of my fictitious roundtable on democracy and power

 Overall Assessment

On a scale of 1-10, I'd rate this an 8.5: intellectually stimulating and urgently relevant, it's a refreshing antidote to doom-scrolling, urging readers to treat democracy as "an ongoing task" rather than a given. Ângelo's perspective—optimistic yet vigilant—positions power not as zero-sum but as a shared guardianship, especially vital amid 2025's uncertainties like escalating cyber conflicts and climate diplomacy. If you're into Harari's futurism or Plato's timeless warnings, this is a must-read; it might even inspire you to host your own "roundtable" over coffee. For skeptics, it risks preaching to the choir, but its blend of AI-assisted creativity and global savvy makes it more than just another op-ed. Worth sharing in policy circles or philosophy groups.
This is a standout piece of public intellectual writing—original in its time-spanning dialogue format, which makes dense ideas accessible and engaging, almost like a TED Talk in blog form. The depth shines through historical analogies and forward-looking policies, blending philosophy, tech critique, and diplomacy into a cohesive call to action. It's particularly timely, resonating with 2025's headlines: ongoing DSA enforcement battles, AI governance talks at the UN, and populist echoes in post-2024 U.S. politics under a second Trump term.

Democracia e Poder na Era da Incerteza: Uma Mesa-Redonda Através do Tempo

Este é o relatório de uma mesa-redonda imaginária sobre democracia, presente e futura. Esta discussão entre três pensadores foi moderada por este blog com a assistência do M365 Copilot.

Introdução: A Democracia chegou a uma Encruzilhada

A democracia, outrora celebrada como a garantia máxima de liberdade e estabilidade, agora enfrenta um paradoxo. É globalmente dominante, mas profundamente frágil. Das ondas populistas à governança algorítmica, das crises climáticas à fragmentação geopolítica, a questão já não é se a democracia prevalecerá, mas se ela se consegue adaptar sem perder a sua essência.

Para explorar esse dilema, meu blog reuniu uma extraordinária mesa-redonda fictícia: Platão (Grécia, século IV a.C.), o filósofo que primeiro analisou as vulnerabilidades da democracia; Yuval Noah Harari, historiador e futurista nascido em Israel (1976); e Victor Ângelo (nascido em 1949 em Portugal), diplomata veterano, estrategista de segurança e colunista. O diálogo assim gerado atravessa milênios, entrelaçando sabedoria antiga com urgência contemporânea.

I. Platão: Os Perigos do Excesso de Liberdade

Platão começa com um alerta que ecoa através dos séculos:

“A democracia surge da liberdade, mas a liberdade sem restrições gera desordem. Quando os cidadãos valorizam a liberdade acima da virtude, promovem aduladores em vez de guardiões. Agora, vejo as democracias intoxicadas pela multiplicidade de opiniões, confundindo ruído com sabedoria.”

A crítica de Platão não representa nostalgia pela aristocracia; é um chamamento para uma governança racional. Para ele, o calcanhar de Aquiles da democracia está em sua suscetibilidade à demagogia — uma vulnerabilidade ampliada hoje pelas redes sociais e pela retórica populista.

Platão refere-se então a um estudo de caso histórico: Atenas e a Queda da Polis, um exemplo que recomenda não ser esquecido. No século V a.C., Atenas foi pioneira na democracia direta, concedendo aos cidadãos uma voz sem precedentes. No entanto, essa liberdade gerou volatilidade. Demagogos como Cléon exploraram as paixões populares, levando a decisões imprudentes como a Expedição Siciliana — um desastre que apressou o declínio de Atenas.

II. Harari: Poder Além da Política

Harari muda o foco da teoria política para a realidade tecnológica: “Platão temia as massas populares; hoje, tememos o algoritmo. O poder já não reside apenas nos parlamentos — ele flui por fluxos de dados. O capitalismo de vigilância e a IA moldam as vontades antes mesmo dos cidadãos votarem.”

Harari argumenta que a assimetria da informação — outrora privilégio dos reis — agora pertence aos gigantes da tecnologia. As democracias precisam se reinventar não apenas para regular a tecnologia, mas para redefinir a liberdade numa era em que a autonomia é ameaçada algoritmicamente. Harari mostra preocupar-se com a fragilidade das instituições. E acrescenta que a República de Weimar (1919–1933) oferece uma lição sóbria. Nascida das cinzas do império, abraçou ideais democráticos, mas faltou resiliência institucional. Crises económicas e propaganda minaram a confiança, abrindo caminho para o autoritarismo. As democracias atuais enfrentam riscos semelhantes — não pela hiperinflação, mas pela desordem informacional.

III. Ângelo: A Dimensão Geopolítica

Victor Ângelo traz uma perspectiva prática: “A democracia continua sendo o sistema mais legítimo, mas a legitimidade está sob ataque. O populismo explora o medo; a desinformação corrói a confiança e promove o ódio. Enquanto isso, a governança global perde terreno face às ameaças transnacionais — mudanças climáticas, ciberguerra, cartéis internacionais do crime, pandemias.”

Para Ângelo, o desafio está na no êxito ou no fracasso da ação coletiva. Nenhuma democracia pode ser protegida sozinha, apenas ao nível nacional ou local, quando as crises não têm fronteiras. Por isso, friza a necessidade de alianças de valores, ancoradas em direitos humanos e no Estado de Direito, para enfrentar o ressurgimento autoritário e os choques sistêmicos.

Ângelo lembra o otimismo pós-Guerra Fria que foi substituído agora por pessimismo e medo: “Os anos 1990 foram saudados como o ‘fim da história’ (Fukuyama, 1992), com a democracia liberal aparentemente triunfante. No entanto, o momento unipolar gerou complacência. Instituições como a ONU e a OTAN tiveram dificuldades para se adaptar às novas ameaças assimétricas, enquanto a globalização superou a governança. O resultado: um vácuo explorado por poderes autoritários e atores não estatais.”

Os participantes discutiram então alguns exemplos que mostram as pressões atuais sobre a democracia. Por exemplo, o EU Digital Services Act (DSA) e o Digital Markets Act (DMA) representam esforços pioneiros para regular monopólios tecnológicos e conter a desinformação. No entanto, a sua aplicação permanece desigual, e a governança da IA ainda é embrionária. É também uma questão vista de forma diferente por europeus e, do outro lado do Atlântico, pelos líderes dos EUA e pelos principais empreendedores digitais baseados na América.

Ainda nos EUA, polarização e negação eleitoral têm minado as normas democráticas. O ataque ao Capitólio a 6 de janeiro destacou as vulnerabilidades existentes na resiliência institucional. Ângelo acrescentou que as decisões do Presidente Trump tomadas desde o início do seu segundo mandato desafiaram igualmente a autoridade de instituições-chave que desempenham um papel vital no equilíbrio dos poderes. Essas decisões devem ser vistas como ameaças sérias à democracia constitucional, ao equilíbrio democrático e aos media, entre outros.

Outras situações também foram mencionadas. Índia: A maior democracia do mundo enfrenta desafios resultantes de políticas majoritárias assentes na pertença étnica e nas restrições à liberdade de imprensa, levantando questões sobre o equilíbrio entre estabilidade e pluralismo. O Sul Global: Democracias na África e América Latina enfrentam crises de dívida e choques climáticos, que atores autoritários exploram para minar a governança democrática.

O Moderador pediu então que se identificassem as principais recomendações políticas que poderão responder à tendência para o definhamento das democracias.

Os participantes listaram várias ações que devem ser consideradas:

  • Educação cívica para a era digital;
  • Inserir pensamento crítico e alfabetização mediática nos currículos nacionais;
  • Promover conscientização ética sobre IA entre cidadãos e líderes;
  • Expandir estruturas como o EU Digital Services Act para incluir transparência algorítmica;
  • Estabelecer órgãos multilaterais para governança de IA;
  • Proteger a independência e a eficiência da justiça e dos órgãos de referência da comunicação social;
  • Desenvolver mecanismos de resposta rápida para assegurar a integridade eleitoral e as ameaças cibernéticas;
  • Criar um Fórum de Parceria pela Democracia, no quadro do Sistema ONU, para ação global coordenada;
  • Vincular acordos comerciais a padrões democráticos.

Para concluir a mesa redonda, o Moderador afirmou que a discussão permitiu sublinhar que a democracia não é uma conquista estática; é uma tarefa contínua. Como lembra Platão, liberdade sem virtude conduz à tirania. Harari alerta que adaptabilidade é o preço da sobrevivência. Ângelo destaca que a solidariedade global e verdadeira é o seguro de vida da democracia em um mundo fragmentado.

Antes de encerrar o debate e agradecer aos três participantes, o Moderador levantou uma última questão: Qual é o futuro da democracia?

  • Platão: Sem sabedoria, a democracia é facilmente substituída por tirania. Cultive a razão acima da paixão.
  • Harari: Sem adaptabilidade, a democracia torna-se obsoleta. Aceite a inovação, mas proteja-se dos seus perigos.
  • Ângelo: Sem solidariedade, a democracia enfraquece. Construa confiança — dentro das sociedades e entre as nações.

Moderador: Obrigado, senhores. O diálogo entre a reflexão do passado e a urgência do presente lembra-nos que a democracia não é um dado intocável; a sua defesa é uma tarefa sem fim.

Fim da mesa-redonda imaginária.

Friday, 24 October 2025

Democracy and Power in the Age of Uncertainty: A Roundtable Across Time

 

Democracy and Power in the Age of Uncertainty: A Roundtable Across Time

This is the report of an imaginary roundtable discussion about democracy, its present and future. This discussion between the three thinkers was moderated by this blog with the assistance of M365 Copilot. 


Introduction: Democracy at a Crossroads

Democracy, once heralded as the ultimate guarantor of freedom and stability, now faces a paradox. It is globally dominant yet deeply fragile. From populist waves to algorithmic governance, from climate crises to geopolitical fragmentation, the question is no longer whether democracy will prevail, but whether it can adapt without losing its soul.

To explore this dilemma, my blog convened an extraordinary fictitious roundtable: Plato (Greece, 4th century BCE), the philosopher who first dissected democracy’s vulnerabilities; Yuval Noah Harari, historian and futurist born in Israel (1976); and Victor Ângelo (born 1949 in Portugal), a veteran diplomat, security strategist and opinion-maker. Their dialogue spans millennia, weaving ancient wisdom with contemporary urgency.

I. Plato: The Perils of Excess Liberty

Plato begins with a warning that echoes across centuries:

“Democracy arises from liberty, but liberty unrestrained breeds disorder. When citizens prize freedom above virtue, they elevate flatterers over guardians. In your age, I see democracies intoxicated by opinion, mistaking noise for wisdom.”

Plato’s critique is not nostalgia for aristocracy; it is a call for reasoned governance. For him, democracy’s Achilles’ heel lies in its susceptibility to demagoguery—a vulnerability magnified today by social media and populist rhetoric.

Plato refers then to a historical case study: Athens and the Fall of the Polis, an example he recommends we should keep in mind. In the 5th century BCE, Athens pioneered direct democracy, granting citizens unprecedented voice. Yet, this liberty bred volatility. Demagogues like Cleon exploited popular passions, leading to reckless decisions such as the Sicilian Expedition—a disaster that hastened Athens’ decline.

II. Harari: Power Beyond Politics

Harari shifts the lens from political theory to technological reality: “Plato feared the mob; today, we fear the algorithm. Power no longer resides solely in parliaments—it flows through data streams. Surveillance capitalism and AI shape desires before citizens even vote.” 

Harari further argues that information asymmetry—once the privilege of kings—is now the domain of tech giants. Democracies must reinvent themselves not only to regulate technology but to redefine freedom in an era where autonomy is algorithmically curated. He is concerned with the fragility of the institutions. And he adds that the Weimar Republic (1919–1933) offers a sobering lesson. Born from the ashes of empire, it embraced democratic ideals but lacked institutional resilience. Economic crises and propaganda eroded trust, paving the way for authoritarianism. Today’s democracies face a similar risk—not from hyperinflation, but from information disorder.

III. Ângelo: The Geopolitical Dimension

Victor Ângelo brings a practitioner’s perspective: “Democracy remains the most legitimate system, but legitimacy is under siege. Populism exploits fear; disinformation corrodes trust and promotes hatred. Meanwhile, global governance lags behind transnational threats—climate change, cyber warfare, international criminal cartels, pandemics.”

For Ângelo, the challenge is collective action. No democracy can safeguard itself alone when crises are borderless. He calls for alliances of values, anchored in human rights and the rule of law, to counter authoritarian resurgence and systemic shocks.

He reminds us of the post-Cold War optimism that has been replaced by pessimism and fear: "The 1990s were hailed as the “end of history” (Fukuyama, 1992), with liberal democracy seemingly triumphant. Yet, the unipolar moment bred complacency. Institutions like the UN and NATO struggled to adapt to asymmetric threats, while globalisation outpaced governance. The result: a vacuum exploited by authoritarian powers and non-state actors."

The participants discussed then some examples that show the pressures democracy is under. For instance, the EU Digital Services Act (DSA) and Digital Markets Act (DMA) represent pioneering efforts to regulate tech monopolies and curb disinformation. Yet enforcement remains uneven, and AI governance is still embryonic. It is also a matter that is seen differently by the Europeans and the US leaders and key digital entrepreneurs based in America. 

Still in the US, polarisation and election denialism have strained democratic norms. The January 6th Capitol attack underscored vulnerabilities in institutional resilience. Ângelo added that President Trump's decisions taken since the beginning of his second mandate have equally challenged the authority of key institutions that play a vital role in the power balance. Those decisions should be seen as serious threats to the existing Constitution-based democracy, to the democratic equilibrium and to the media, among others. 

Other situations were also mentioned. 

India: The world’s largest democracy faces challenges from majoritarian politics and restrictions on press freedom, raising questions about the balance between stability and pluralism. The Global South: Democracies in Africa and Latin America grapple with debt crises and climate shocks, which authoritarian actors exploit to undermine governance. And Thailand, which is an unavoidable case study: Since 1932, the country has fluctuated between civilian governments and authoritarian regimes, experiencing at least 13 coups. These recurring crises reflect deep structural tensions between popular movements advocating inclusive governance and a conservative establishment. The result is a “constitutional samsara”—a cycle of birth and death that illustrates the fragility but also the resistance of democratic systems.

The Moderator asked for actionable policy recommendations. 

The participants listed a number of actions that must be taken into account: Civic Education for the Digital Age; Embed critical thinking and media literacy in national curricula; Promote ethical AI awareness among citizens and leaders; Expand frameworks like the EU Digital Services Act to include algorithmic transparency; Establish multilateral bodies for AI governance; Protect the independence of the judiciaries and the media; Develop rapid-response mechanisms for election integrity and cyber threats; Create a Democracy Partnership Forum, within the UN System, for coordinated global action; Link trade agreements to democratic standards.

To conclude the roundtable, the Moderator stated that the discussion had underlined that democracy is not a static achievement; it is a perpetual task. As Plato reminds us, liberty without virtue decays into tyranny. Harari warns that adaptability is the price of survival. Ângelo underscores that global, truthful solidarity is democracy’s lifeline in a fractured world. 

Before closing the debate and thanking the three  participants, the Moderator raised a final question: What is the future of democracy? 

Plato responded that without wisdom, democracy decays into tyranny. Cultivate reason above passion.

For Harari, without adaptability, democracy becomes obsolete. Embrace innovation, but guard against its perils.

Ângelo expressed the opinion that without solidarity, democracy weakens. Build trust—within societies and across nations.

Moderator: Thank you, gentlemen. The dialogue between past insight and present urgency reminds us: democracy is not a given; it is a never-ending task.

End of the imaginary roundtable. 

 


 





Europe and its weak strategy regarding the ASEAN

 From Kuala Lumpur to Brussels, the ASEAN summit shows the weakness of the European strategy towards Southeast Asia

Victor Ângelo

The European Union and its Member States have shown limited attention to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which has allowed China to significantly expand its influence in the region. Other countries, such as India, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand, have also strengthened their ties with ASEAN. All this contrasts with the inertia on the part of the EU—a missed opportunity for both sides and a vacuum that others skillfully fill. It also highlights yet another failure of imagination, initiative, courage, and understanding of the political game in that part of the world at the level of European external action. This scenario of European imprecision is particularly relevant in a geopolitical area that is rapidly gaining weight in international relations.

Recently, the United States has also recognized the strategic value of ASEAN. Donald Trump will be present at this year's summit, from October 26 to 28, in Kuala Lumpur, the capital of Malaysia. In addition to meeting with the ten ASEAN leaders—who will become eleven, with the formal admission of Timor-Leste, an important step for the political, economic, and cultural integration of the country into the region to which it truly belongs—the American president will also have the opportunity to meet other prominent politicians, such as Narendra Modi, Li Qiang (Prime Minister of China), Sanae Takaichi (the new ultraconservative leader of Japan), Lula da Silva, and Cyril Ramaphosa.

The Prime Minister of Malaysia, Anwar Ibrahim, also invited Vladimir Putin, a significant gesture, although the Russian president has indicated that he will not be able to attend. Even so, Russia will be represented at a high level. Until the announcement this Wednesday of the new American sanctions, the possibility of a last-minute participation by Putin was not excluded, considering the media and political projection that this would have. Now, it is certain that Putin does not wish to meet Trump, unless the latter reverses this week's decision.

Among the European guests, the Prime Minister of Finland and Giorgia Meloni of Italy stand out, with Meloni already confirming her presence. Meloni recognizes that her visibility at international events is fundamental for consolidating her domestic policy. However, it remains uncertain who will represent the European institutions, with António Costa being one of the names mentioned in diplomatic circles. If confirmed, his presence will be mainly symbolic, since much of the power, namely the executive, resides with the European Commission, led by Ursula von der Leyen.

The European Union needs to look at ASEAN with greater realism and commitment, strengthening political and economic ties with a group of countries that together make up the third most populous region in the world (about 685 million people) and the fifth largest global economy. ASEAN is one of the engines of development of the so-called Global South and aims to play a prominent role in building a new international order. Ignoring this reality would be a strategic mistake for Europe. Historically, Europeans feel closer to Africa and Latin America, but betting on Southeast Asia is increasingly an inevitable path for the coming decades. Furthermore, competition with China, Russia, India, and the USA will be more balanced if the EU manages to establish a solid relationship with the region.

The Kuala Lumpur summit will focus on four major themes considered priorities by the Member States: economic cooperation, regional stability and security, renewable energy production (with the goal of reaching 45% by 2030), and the deepening of free trade agreements with partners such as China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia, and New Zealand.

Significantly, the summit will not address the serious political crisis affecting Myanmar, one of ASEAN's Member States. This deliberate omission reflects the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of each State, one of the Association's pillars, something that clearly contradicts the political cooperation project and obviously favors economic interests. This stance, partly inspired by China, contributes to the distancing between Europe and Southeast Asia, especially due to the indifference of some ASEAN members regarding human rights.

In this context, the messages that the European Union should convey at the Kuala Lumpur summit are clear. On the one hand, to affirm that we, Europeans, consider it mutually beneficial to deepen the full range of relations with ASEAN. On the other hand, to express our conviction that respect for citizens is the only way to guarantee peace, strengthen international cooperation, and ensure sustainable prosperity.