NUPI

I spent a good deal of the day at NUPI, the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. And as usual, I was very impressed by their applied research in the area of peace and security. They are certainly a reference institution when it comes to assessing peacekeeping operations as well as proposing new approaches to field deployments. They have done pioneer work on the issue of civilian capacities and are pretty substantively engaged in looking at the Police dimension in peacekeeping. Police has been the poor link in the peacekeeping field missions. 

Russia and the West have to cooperate.

The political and security relations between the West and Russia are currently in deep water.  There is renewed suspicion on both sides. It is critical to understand the reasons and address the problem. Europe cannot entertain a new level of tension with her neighbour to the East. It is not in our interest. Can´t we understand this?

On the other side, Russia should get the point that a confrontation with the West would be to her disadvantage. Technologically the Russians are behind. They would be a tough target but in the end they would be vulnerable.  Can´t they understand this point?

Forget the reform of the UN Security Council

The reform of the UN Security Council has been on the table for the last 20 years. And there is been no progress. The Permanent 5 (P5) are the ones blocking the change that should take place. They have the veto power and believe that their standing in the world is above every other nation. How can that be? How can France or the UK believe they yield more power than India or Brazil? 

It is now quite obvious that the reform will not happen in the foreseeable future. As an alternative, it is important to reinforce the authority and the legitimacy of other international groupings of nations, such as the African Union, the EU or the Arab League. Their capabilities to deal with matters of peace and security, as well as with economic coordination and development should be seriously enhanced. 

Crisis response: Moving beyond strategic games, ineffectiveness and indifference

 It is time to discuss the new trends in the international community´s response to major peace and security challenges. As globalisation advances, violent conflicts in a far flung corner of the world can easily gain a wider dimension and have a regional or even a larger impact. They also tend to have dramatic humanitarian consequences, hand in hand with extremely serious human rights violations.

Is the international machinery ready to address such threats in an urgent and comprehensive manner? What to do if the UN Security Council is unwilling to agree on an appropriate response? How to address the issues of urgency and comprehensiveness? Is development assistance, as practiced during the last decades, geared towards strengthening human security and reinforcing peace building? How is public opinion in the developed world being influenced when it comes to reacting to crisis in distant lands? 

Norway and the UN

Today´s decision on this year´s Nobel Peace Prize shows again how attached the Norwegians are to the UN and the organizations that make the UN System.

I have worked with many developed states. And I have always noticed how much the Norwegians appreciated the work of the UN.  The leaders and the public opinion in Norway believe in the UN and would feel safer in a world where the very big countries would accept a larger role for the international organizations.

You might believe there is some naiveté in the Norwegian attitude towards the UN. It might be somehow true. But dreams are important. And sometimes they become real. 

The absence of an immigration policy

One could again notice in the recent days that the EU has no common policy on immigration. The states still look at the issue as a national matter and not as a common challenge. The resources made available to FRONTEX, the agency charged with the EU border policing are clearly insufficient. Moreover, the leaders do not take a comprehensive approach and deal with the issue with one tool only - border control - when it is clear that other measures are necessary. Without a combination of approaches, combining policing with diplomacy, development assistance, strategic communications, and an integration policy, we will continue to see the misery boats crossing the Mediterranean in search of the next tragedy. 

New threats call for new responses

The US Navy Seals operations over the week end in Libya and Somalia, to capture well known terrorist leaders raise a number of questions, in terms of international law. But above all, they beg the question about how current and adjusted to today's world is the fight against international terrorism. This is a debate that has yet to take place: how to respond to multinational terrorist groups.

They represent a new threat to international peace and security. They cannot be fought with conventional means. And they cannot be convinced that they will be safe in weak states or in chaotic societies. They have to understand that global terrorism calls for a global response.

And that was certainly the key message the US has sent this week end across many parts of Africa and elsewhere. The US might have gone beyond the accepted norms. But we need to consider that the old ways of addressing new challenges need to be thought through. With a new approach to national sovereignty and the legitimate use of force. 

EU and India: a partnership that needs to be explored

The political and economic partnership between the EU and India deserves greater attention. The European leaders seem blind to the potential of such an alliance and how much it would weight on China.  China’s global interests would then be matched by a strong EU-India alliance.

I keep repeating that our leaders need to be much more strategic in the relations with India. The EU has a good representative in Delhi, that‘s not the problem.  The issue resides in the fact that our leaders are not investing enough in building a strong relationship with India. They are too concerned with trying to come to terms with China and its commercial and industrial expansion. They do not see the opportunities. 

Hollande's circuit breaker

President François Hollande of France should sack the Prime Minister and implement a Cabinet reshuffle to show that he is in control and not afraid of taking decisions. The Cabinet is more divided than ever. Its public contradictions have a damaging impact on the President’s image. In these cases, the Prime Minister should be like the fuse that blows when the current is excessive.  I am afraid however that Hollande might not have the necessary guts to act.   

Central Africa

The Central African Republic (CAR) is now a failed state.

The capital city, Bangui, is controlled by armed groups of uncertain origin. They are most likely dominated by warlords from Southern Darfur and Eastern Chad. They have little to do with CAR’s main ethnic groups but they are allied to Central Africans from the North-Eastern border areas. These are Muslims in a country that is largely Christian.

Besides the capital, there are other armed groups and several “self-defence” committees. But there is no central authority, no law and order, no administration and no modern economy. It is just chaos and extreme hardship.

The situation can easily spill over into some of neighbouring countries. They are also very fragile. They could become the next prey of the roaming armed men.  

The African Union has pledged to send a peacekeeping force to the country. It will be difficult for the AU to be able to mobilise the force and the resources required. It will also be a very delicate mission because of the religious divide that is now taking place, for the first time in the history of CAR.

The international community should understand that the country needs, urgently, not at the pace the AU can mobilise itself, a very robust international force, with full executive powers.

It is the survival of CAR’s population that is, first and foremost, at stake. But not only. It is an entire region. A region that is already the least stable of Africa.