On today´s Turkey

It is time for the EU leaders to have a serious discussion about Turkey. More than ever, it is necessary to agree on a common position. And be very clear when it comes to governance issues in Ankara. 

The buoy on offer

It is always a serious mistake to ignore the feelings of each part to a conflict.

Conflicts do escalate because of feelings, matters of honour, fear of being perceived as weak, of losing the face, and other issues of national pride and history. The understanding of is of national interest gets then blurred. The obvious economic cost of war is disregarded, as it is the human dimension. The flag becomes more important than the individual.

Mediation is about finding a way out from such powerful irrationality.

The UN Secretary-general´s visit to Moscow and then to Kiev is a critical move that should be seized as a much needed buoy in very choppy waters. 

Baltic bridges

The Baltic States are all members of NATO. That´s a big difference when their situation is compared with Ukraine´s. But there is more. They are part of the EU, including of the Schengen space, and two of them have the Euro as their currency. These are major reasons for their citizens of Russian ancestry and ethnicity to consider that they have a lot to gain if the current status quo of the Baltic countries is maintained. They would certainly feel less free and less able to move around if they were to become part of Russia.

But the Baltic leaders also have a major role to play. They should recognise the rights of the minority populations that live in their countries, including the official recognition of Russian as one of the national languages.

I have said several times to my Baltic friends that they have a lot to gain by being neighbours of Russia and part of the EU. They can be the bridge that everyone would like to see strengthened.

This is therefore no time for inappropriate rhetoric. 

Beware of extremist ideas in Europe

Based in the UK, the Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD) is an independent think tank that is spending quite a bit of its resources on research about the extreme right movements in Europe. The research is also used to make policy recommendations.

It is worth to look at its webpage at:

 http://www.strategicdialogue.org

The right-wing extremism is one of the growing concerns in certain EU countries. Racism, xenophobia, radical nationalism and anti-liberal authoritarianism are its key features. In addition, there is also the risk of violence related to religious fanaticism.

It would be a serious mistake to pretend EU is immune to that kind of violent ideas. Actually, as we get closer to the European elections we can see that ultra-right parties are gaining ground in several countries.

It is critical to fight them politically. But in some cases, they are just a matter of law and order. Their leaders should be brought to the book. 

Putin´s isolation

For many, the world, their world, is a dangerous place to live. Just take the example of the farmers in three villages in the Kaduna state, Nigeria, that have been massacred by nomad pastoralists a couple of days ago. Or the people in Syria, who have been in the midst of dreadful civil war for the last three years. Or those in Afghanistan who have only known war for such a long time.

And one could mention many other places.

In view of this, the politics of confrontation that guide Vladimir Putin´s actions in his part of the world are a matter of great concern. They could take us towards open conflict. Therefore, they require a very firm response from the West. Change through rapprochement, the approach we have followed during the last twenty years, is not understood by Putin. He reads in it weakness. That´s very unfortunate. It is therefore time to change our approach. And use isolation and strong diplomacy as the new tools. It is in our interest and certainly in the interest of peace in Europe.

We should not forget that Putin´s hold on power is grounded on the revenue coming from the export of his country´s natural resources. Less trade and less investment will in the end contribute to let him understand we are now in a more interdependent world, where cooperation is more important than confrontation. We only have to find the right way to make such a message crystal clear. 

One veto

The UN Security Council is certainly in need of deep reform to reflect today´s world. But, for the time being, it is the ultimate platform where matters of peace and security can be decided. It is therefore of critical importance, even when decisions are not taken because of one or more vetoes. For instance, when all the members of the Council vote for a resolution and one of the five permanent sitters casts a negative vote, this veto has a tremendous political meaning. Particularly if the resolution was trying to address an issue of directly related to the international behaviour of the vetoing country. By saying no that country is just showing to be on the wrong side of the international community´s wisdom. 

Interdependence and new approaches to conflict resolution

During the last two or three days, there have been gigantic amounts of financial resources that have been transferred between countries as well as many selling operations in the stock markets. Financial assets owned by Russian entities have been moved out of American and European banks and transferred to what they consider to be safer havens. In addition, EU banks and funds have taken way from Russia many of their financial investments. There is a move away from the Russian currency, the rouble.

All this is precautionary. But it sends a very strong message, including to Vladimir Putin, that today´s economic and financial interdependence does require a different approach to conflict between major states. Diplomacy and compromise are more in line with today´s interests. 

Oil, economic recovery and key geopolitical areas of interest

The price of Brent Crude Oil has been relatively stable during the last 12 months. It has oscillated around US $105 and $108. During the last five days or so, it has even decreased slightly. I take this as an indicator that there is more serenity out there, among those who know what´s going on, than the events in Ukraine let us believe. This is certainly good news. We need calm waters out there. The economic recovery is still very precarious, particularly in the EU, and we can´t afford major disruptions. Oil remains an important factor in terms of the recovery and its price can have a critical impact on economic and social stability in Europe.

That´s why we have to pay more attention to the situation in Libya, Iraq, Nigeria, and also make sure that Iran plays ball as agreed and can be back in the oil market as an important supplier.

These are some of the countries that would call for more focus within the EU machinery. 

Ukraine and the new defence architecture in Europe

The EU game plan for Ukraine must match Russia´s will to cooperate. That has to be made very clear to the Kremlin. If Russia´s ambition goes beyond reasonable expectations and leads to the annexation of Crimea and other parts of Ukraine, the EU has to move beyond economic and budgetary assistance and have a comprehensive approach. It is true that the EU defence policy is too short. But its member states could help Ukraine to reach a stronger partnership with the existing defence mechanism that the West has in place.

  

That is the message that needs to be put across to the Kremlin. If things on their side go too far then they can expect Ukraine to become much more integrated in the Western defence architecture. In other words, if Russia changes the balance of power in Eastern Europe, then the West will have to find a new equilibrium that would certainly include the new Ukraine. 

Moving away from Russia may gain speed

President Putin believes he will be in a stronger position after the Crimean referendum on Sunday. He knows that the result will be favourable to those who advocate the integration of the Peninsula in the Russian Federation. This is not a very difficult guess as many of those who oppose it will be intimidated and will stay away of the polling stations. But he is wrong to believe this will strength his hand. This will give additional weight to all those in the West that keep saying we shouldn´t cooperate and trust the current Kremlin leadership. And these people will push for less dependency of Russia´s natural resources and markets. For less economic links as well. They will stress that alternatives do exist. And that will be a strong trend in the next few years.