Israel and Palestine will be at it for a long time

The situation in Israel and Gaza is again at its worst. It reminds us, as it does so often, that there is no real mechanism to peacefully sort out major complex crises, if one or both sides believe that the only option that is left to them is through war. It is also a sharp and dramatic reminder of the ambivalence of the big powers. In this case, the US has shown that they cannot, for domestic political reasons, be part and judge of a conflict. You are either one or the other. And you assume it clearly.

I do not write often about this part of the world for a very simple reason. I do not see a solution to the conflict. This is one those violent disputes that will stay with us for another generation or two. In the meantime, people suffer and lives are just wasted. 

Illegal crossings and poor politics

The illegal crossing of the Mediterranean Sea by hundreds of African migrants is a daily occurrence. They sail off the Libyan coast and try to reach the Italian territory. But they have disappeared from the news. If one tries to read about these dramatic movements in any of the major European papers one just gets nowhere. The matter is being ignored anywhere outside Italy. And it has also disappeared from the discussions in the the EU fora. The issue, which is of course a common concern, is seen as an Italian matter. And then the Italians just let the migrants loose, in the hope they will move North and out of the country. Many of them will find indeed their way into the Calais area, in Northern France, just waiting for a chance to cross into the UK. Others will move into other EU countries. The issue is plainly out of control, all over the place, from the islands in Southern Italy to Brussels, London, Paris and elsewhere. Nobody cares. It is not in the news therefore does not exist...politically.  

Football is about national dreams

Football is big, big business. But it is also about politics. And in some cases, like in Belgium, it is also about strengthening national unity. The Belgian team has done its bit to bringing together the different communities of a divided country. Yesterday, their loss against Argentina, after a fair game, was in many ways a blow to a few more days of dream. Including the dream that people can unite because they share a common history and background, and also a number of interlinked interests.

Without dreams there is no future. The role of national footballers is to play it right. The role of leaders is also to be able to go for the right game. 

Italy´s promising presidency of the EU

The Italian presidency, this semester, of the EU might bring in a new debate about economic growth, fiscal responsibility and the role of national governments vis-a-vis the Brussels institutions.

Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is a young politician. He brings a bit of courage and fresh air to EU politics. We might disagree with some of his positions but we should recognise that his interventions are forcing the German politicians and other leaders from the North to engage in a dialogue that had been missing for a long while.

EU has a lot to gain from a proper exchange of contradictory but well formulated views. Political diversity is good for Europe. 

Insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea

I have been asked to look at the security challenges in the Gulf of Guinea. There will be an international meeting on the subject in Lisbon on 11 July. States from the region, and partner nations from the EU and elsewhere, including Brazil and the US, are supposed to attend.

The meeting comes out of a growing concern about the security challenges facing Coastal West Africa, as the next expansion area of a crisis that has shaped the Sahel during the recent past. The sea lanes are along West Africa are vital for many interests, including the oil and fishing interests of European countries.

As I get deeper into the subject I come to old conclusions: poor governance in the region, extremely weak states, predatory elites, inadequate cooperation policies on the side of rich countries, widespread disrespect for human rights, all that play a role and seriously contribute to a complex situation that could easily get out of hand in the future. 

Poor leadership

In the last days, in different meetings, I was told twice by senior officers and seasoned civil servants that the current crop of Western leaders do not listen to advice. They tend to have pre-conceived responses to key issues and therefore opt for directing their subordinates, without listening their views, without taking into account their experience. This creates a lot of frustration in the senior levels of the public service. It is also a contributing factor to the poor commitment we find in many civil administrations. 

UK on the way out of the EU

I am getting the impression that in Brussels many think that the UK´s exit from the EU is just a matter of time. Prime Minister Cameron has opened a Pandora box. He and the rest of the existing political leadership seem too weak, too uncharismatic to be able to stop the slide in the public opinion. It will be an uphill struggle to change the trend. The genie will not jump back into the bottle.  

Ukraine´s window of opportunity is now

I sense there is a little but encouraging window of opportunity to find a solution to the crisis in Ukraine. Tomorrow´s meetings in Vienna, where President Putin has arrived today, could offer a chance for a peace road map. I think that the Swiss have been particularly active in trying to bring Putin and the other parties together, including the new Head of State of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko. The Swiss Confederation President, Didier Burkhalter, has also travelled to Vienna this morning. His discussions with the Russian leader tomorrow are something that should be carefully watched. 

Iraq and the great divide

The Iraqi crisis reminds us of how difficult it is to assist a country that is deeply divided along ethnic and cultural lines. The fracture line between Sunnis and Shias cuts the country in two. This is a very high risk divide. It needs to be managed with great balance. Leaders from both sides of the line have to be brought together all the time. Our role, as international community, is to encourage them to cooperate, to help them to build the platforms that bring their interests together, to underline the common ground and look into the future from there.

In many ways, the experience tells us that to intervene in countries that are at the frontier of great divides is not a very easy thing. The best solution is to stay out, as much as possible. If that is not advisable, then the international community must act in a very well informed way, with great prudence and a strong sense of the risks.

That´s true in Iraq as it is also true in Sudan, Mali or Chad, in the Balkans, or any other country that has national communities that are very different, both from a physical point of view and from a religious or cultural perspective. These are countries with a very high risk of falling into major internal conflicts. Outside interventions that are just naive and ill prepared can only accelerate the hatching of the crisis. 

Iraq: a very complex and grave situation

The gravity of the situation in Iraq cannot be underestimated. As one should not be blind to the very serious impact it can have in the entire region. President Obama´s approach, as outlined today, is a prudent one. It requires however a greater degree of coordination with the key States in the Middle East.
Unfortunately, it cannot be enhanced by any type of EU action as Europe has lost its capacity to play a critical military role in the region, particularly in the context of a very violent and complex crisis.