Downright pathetic politics in Egypt

Every time I see images, or read the proceedings of today´s Egyptian courts, a single word comes to mind: deplorable.

When the shock is too big, we can´t find too many words. 

On Russia, we have to keep the diplomatic bridges open

On 9 May there will be a major party in Moscow. It will celebrate the 70^th anniversary of the Soviet victory against Nazism, the end of World War II, as we would say on this part of Europe. In the Russian historical narrative this is a big day. Most probably one of the top celebrations every year. It has also a lot of political meaning, as the date is sold to the people as Russian soldiers liberating Europe, after a devastating war.

This time the European leaders will not be around in Moscow. The current political and military tensions with Russia led to a decision to boycott Vladimir Putin´s invitation to attend. The decision seems to be consistent with the economic and political sanctions being imposed by our side on Russia.

But I think we should make a distinction between sanctions – which are fully justified – and diplomacy. Diplomacy should be more active than ever, now that there are serious reasons to be unhappy with Russia´s international behaviour. Diplomacy aims at repairing conflict situations. And diplomacy means contacts, being around, keeping the doors open.

In the case under discussion here, I think the best solution would have been to accept the invitation to attend the 9^th May party but to send second line political representatives. That would mean we would be around, and ready to engage, but at the same time our lower level of participation would be showing our displeasure with today´s Kremlin´s political options.

That would give no excuse to our hosts, no chance to paint us in bad colours.

Five good examples of development assistance

A brief note to put on record five good examples of commitment to international development assistance. In 2014 the following countries’ financial contributions to development assistance exceeded the agreed threshold of 0.7% of their GDP: United Kingdom, Denmark, Luxembourg, Norway and Sweden. Sweden, it should be added, was particularly generous. Its financial assistance to development programmes and projects reached 1.1% of its GDP.

These countries and 23 more make the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the OECD. The average contribution of the DAC countries to development, also in 2014, remained well below the target – the 0.7% figure – at a mere 0.29% of GDP. 

Our little world

Our part of the world is once again responding with indifference to the human tragedies that are taking place in Syria and Iraq and to the deepening of the security crisis around Yemen. As we remain unresponsive to so many other violations of basic human rights.

 Our leaders seem to be overwhelmed by our own domestic problems, the media is focusing on Le Pen, the UK forthcoming elections and the inability of the US local police to deal with the challenges of multi-ethnicity in their towns, and we, the little people, we are just trying to cope with the air control strikes and the taxes that keep falling on us. Or preparing for the next holiday.

These are indeed interesting times: the more we know about the world, and we know plenty nowadays, the more we close ourselves in our little circles. The information reaches us but we have learned to ignore it. 

The Baltics are in sensitive region of Europe

The Baltic region, a corner of Europe I came to gradually know after I retired from the UN and initiated my current professional interests, is a very sensitive geopolitical area. The Baltic States are now in the EU and NATO. But they have a powerful and resentful neighbour and significant Russian minorities within their borders. I have always thought they need to have a very wise relationship with that neighbour. They can achieve it and, at the same time, continue to strengthen their links with our part of Europe and with NATO. The balancing act is possible. It is actually the only option that is sensible.

What is not sensible is to post a tweet in the social media, as the Latvian Foreign Minister did yesterday, that says: “The more I follow modern RU, the more I come to conclusion that she will end up like German Reich after both WWI & WWII & it'll be too late”. Such statement shows political immaturity. It does not serve the interests of his country and the region. And if we take into account that Latvia is now chairing the EU, until the end of the semester, the tweet is unacceptable, as I see it from Brussels. 

Pakistan should not get involved in the Yemen conflict

Saudi Arabia has requested Pakistan to be part of the coalition that has been formed to fight the Houthi rebels in Yemen.

There is a very close diplomatic relationship between Riyadh and Islamabad. The Pakistani leadership, and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif above all, owe a big chunk of their political survival to the support they received from the Saudis. Furthermore, Pakistan has a significant military capacity that could contribute to the war against the rebels.

But any direct involvement of Pakistan in Yemen would have deep consequences, both domestically and in the region.

Internally, it would further alienate the Shia population of Pakistan, a minority segment of the population – they represent about 15% of the country´s population – and create more friction and violence between rival sects and ethnic groups. We cannot forget that some ethnic groups are linked to similar groups in Iran, a country that is somehow close to the Houthis in Yemen.

Externally, Pakistan´s participation would mean an additional escalation of a conflict that is already gaining a regional dimension. By this time the situation is already very delicate. Any expansion of the Yemen´s conflict should be seen with deep concern.

On the road to the UN´s top position

The French President has awarded today the “Légion d´Honneur”, at the senior level of Commander, to the Director-General of UNESCO, Ms. Irina Bokova.

The DG is a Bulgarian citizen and that part of Europe is in the race to get the top position at the United Nations, once the mandate of Ban Ki-moon is over.

I thought this could be a clear indication that Paris would support Ms. Bokova´s bid to become the next UN Secretary-General. She has been quiet clear about her determination to fight for the position.

But the distinction can also be a consolation prize. They might have decided to say no to her ambition and then present her with a very high honour as a gesture to keep her reasonably gratified…

Time will make it clear. 

Time for a serious overhaul of Kenya´s security apparatus

Kenya is very vulnerable to Al-Shabaab´s terrorist enterprises. 

There is the long border with Somalia, the home base for this radical group. In addition, Kenya has a large segment of its population with Somali ethnic roots. Many of them are Kenyan citizens, others are refugees who ran away from decades of violent conflict, drought and misery in Somalia. Some might feel discriminated and marginalised but they try to cope with their situation and are only concerned by making ends meet. They are peaceful people. A few of them can however, for clan-related reasons, provide some cover to extremists. 

That´s why a greater reliance of people´s participation in their own security is essential. The security services have to link better with the citizens and cultivate a relationship of trust. 

The combat against terrorist violence in Kenya calls for a new way of collecting intelligence. That´s probably the most important step that is required at this stage. It should however be complemented by additional investments in counter-insurgency training and better coordination between the defence forces and the security services. 

A good framework deal with Iran

The perseverance has paid off and we have now the framework on a nuclear agreement with Tehran. This is good news at a time when good news from that part of the world are few and far apart.

As I said before, we should trust the negotiators and accept the deal as genuine step forward. This should be the position of every truthful leader. In the US, the right-wingers in the Republican Party are not prepared to see it from this perspective. They are even saying that they will call off the agreement if they get to the presidency in 2017. Such statements are very difficult to accept by the public opinion on our side of the ocean. And they make it more difficult for those in Europe that advocate for a strong partnership with the US. 

A deal on Iran´s nuclear programme should be possible

The nuclear deal with Iran is important for all parties. But it needs to be very clear in its details and monitoring mechanisms. It´s therefore preferable to extend the negotiations than to rush through an agreement that is incomplete and ambiguous. It has taken very long to reach the stage where we find ourselves today. It is therefore worth to continue the discussions for a few more days and weeks if the intent is to reach an accord that is credible and acceptable to all sides, including to those who do not sit at the Lausanne table of negotiations but keep a close eye on what is going on. They are actually those who need to be fully convinced that the deal is good.