Taiwan´s elections and post-electoral realism

The people of Taiwan voted heavily for the opposition, both in terms of the presidential and legislative elections. Opposition leader Tsai Ing-wen has been elected as Taiwan’s next president. She will be the first woman to lead the country.

In the past, Ms. Tsai was the leading Taiwanese negotiator with China. Therefore she knows how important is to keep the line open with Beijing, even if the majority of her support comes from those who would like to see Taiwan become an independent country. It is a fine balancing act that is required from her but political realism leaves no other option for Taiwan. Anything else would further complicate the tense situation that is already a key feature of the geopolitical situation in East Asia. 

Terrorism in Ouagadougou

Another day, another terrorist attack. This time the target is an international hotel in Ouagadougou, the capital of Burkina Faso. In the evening, there were a couple of explosions outside the hotel and then a group of armed men stormed the facility. At this stage it is still a developing crisis. I am afraid it will end as a very tragic event.

Burkina Faso is a good example in Africa. The country has just completed a democratic transition. Elections were disputed with fair play and the results accepted by everyone. A new President and a fresh government have just been inaugurated. All seems very promising in a country that has a very young population, well educated and where the religious and ethnic diversity has not been played by the politicians. It is a pretty tolerant and open society.

It is also next door to Mali and part of the Sahel region. These are very sensitive areas.

Tonight´s sad events in Ouagadougou are just a reminder, a very dramatic one, of the dangers that many countries are facing these days. The fight against terrorism is now one of the top priorities and does call for an international supporting mechanism. Countries like Burkina Faso need and deserve such support. 

They are often wrong but the salary is great

My daily tasks include a close scrutiny of the financial analysts’ opinions and forecasts. And I am very often amazed. The spectrum of views is so wide and the predictions are so often off track! With time, their forecasts are systematically contradicted by the facts, particularly at times like the present one when the unknowns are many. But they always have a good excuse. And they earn good salaries. All that makes me wonder, now and then, if I have not chosen the wrong career path. 

Obama´s State of the Union speech seen from Brussels

The European media treated President Obama´s State of the Union speech very kindly. The spin has indeed been very positive.

For most of us in the EU, Obama continues to be perceived as a very principled politician and also as a wise leader. People know the American economy is now stronger, jobs have been created in large numbers – 14 million new jobs during his presidency –, the unemployment rate has been cut in half and the government deficit slashed by three-quarters. Europeans also know that Obama has given priority to diplomacy and multilateralism when addressing international issues. Moreover, they feel that the US under Obama has not abandoned Europe, notwithstanding the new critical challenges America is confronted with in the Far East.

There is one more year to go before he completes his second mandate. In international politics, one year is a very short period of time. Most likely the transatlantic free trade agreement between the US and the EU – known as TTIP – wil not be completed before Obama´s departure. In many ways, the reasons for delay belong to the European side. But his name will certainly be associated to the effort to bring the two sides together in terms of free commerce. And shared commercial interests bring nations together and give them a mutual sense of confidence and security.

                                        

Istanbul, Europe and Merkel

Today´s terrorist attack in Istanbul must be unequivocally condemned. The victims and their families as well as the people of the city and of Turkey deserve our deepest sympathies and the strongest expression of our solidarity.

We should also profoundly worry as this act shows a very high level of strategic planning.

First, it targeted the core of the tourism industry in the emblematic city of Istanbul. It aimed at attacking the city´s image, the efficiency of the security services, who were in high alert, and the economy of the country. It is also an act of revenge against the government´s recent crackdown on Islamic State activities.

Second, it was clearly directed against German tourists above all. I do not think this is a coincidence. It was certainly a deliberate choice. The ultimate objective was to contribute to undermine Angela Merkel´s authority. The German Chancellor has been very responsive to the plight of the Syrian refugees. Such an approach is contrary to the message the Islamic State terrorists would like to put across the Muslim world. They wanted to show that the key European leader – and Europe for that matter – had a hostile approach to Muslim people.

They would also want to see Europe in crisis as a result of the mass arrival of refugees. Merkel´s leadership has prevented the potential crisis from materialising. In their view, she has to be seriously destabilised for Europe to lose direction and balance. 

War crimes in Syria

Madaya, the Syrian town that has been under siege for more than six months, surrounded by government troops, is a symbol. As are the towns of Foah and Kefraya, in the Northern part of the country. They have also endured a very long siege, this time by rebel groups that are fighting the regime of President al-Assad.

In Madaya, around 40,000 people have been without food and medicines supplies. In the two government-controlled towns, the numbers are close to 20,000. All three are not only a reminder of the ferocity of the conflict that is consuming Syria since 2012, of the widespread human suffering, they are also an example of the many war crimes that every side is committing.

Indeed, starving masses of civilians to death, as it is the case in these towns, is a war crime, as defined by international law. But after so many atrocities, we are losing sight of the very serious violations of the law of the war that keep occurring in the country. That´s certainly not a very good approach to justice. The peace process, when it happens, has to take these matters into account as well. 

Immigration as a big issue

One of the big questions on the EU´s table these days is about immigration. And the question is very clear. Very simple and pretty direct. Have we lost control of our immigration policies?

We have to be able to answer to the question without falling into stereotypes of any nature. 

Immigration issues are indeed like mines in a minefield. It is very common to explode on them. We therefore need to deal with the issues in a very careful way. But be aware as well that this is a field that needs to be cleared. Rather sooner than later, I should add.

Cologne raises many questions

Referring again to the New Year´s criminal incidents in Cologne, I think it is important to note that the total number of complaints filed with the police has now reached 379. This is an incredible high figure, but possibly lower than the actual number of cases. In these types of crimes some victims do prefer not to file a formal charge. In any case, the total figure registered so far clearly shows the magnitude of the problem. It leaves no room for a light treatment of the matter. This is more than just a law and order issue. As it is also bigger than just police failure to anticipate and later on to respond to the occurrences.

There are many questions that call for a frank and courageous answer. But also for serenity. The citizens have to be reassured. And the refugees have to see the authorities as strong enough and ready to separate the wheat from the chaff.

Lessons from Cologne

Regarding the sexual attacks against young women and thefts in Cologne, and also in some other European cities, I certainly wish to add my voice to those who have expressed shock. It is important to make it clear that such actions are criminal acts. Therefore, the perpetrators ought to be brought to face justice. The police work needs to be done without any outside interference. This is no time for political meddling in police affairs.

But it is time to draw some very serious political lessons from these abhorrent incidents. They call for a frank debate about the challenges of integrating in Europe large numbers of people coming from cultures that are very different from ours – and in some ways, unacceptable, because they are a negation of key human values Europeans take for granted. It is not an easy debate but has to be clearly discussed. 

Moving on Saudi Arabia, Iran and also the UN

In my last posting, I suggested the UN Secretary-General should dispatch without delay a Personal Envoy for political consultations with the Saudi and the Iranian governments. I should now recognise that Ban Ki-moon has indeed requested his Special Envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, to travel to Riyadh and Teheran. The Envoy has now completed his discussions in Saudi Arabia and is now in Iran. I support the move. And I hope the big nations will do the same.

The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs should also issue a supporting statement.

Now, on a matter that is somehow related to the above, I would add that de Mistura could be, later in the year, if there is progress on the peace talks regarding Syria, a name to be ultimately considered for the UN Secretary-General´s position. At this stage, two of the strongest candidates, UNESCO Director-General Irina Bokova and her compatriot Kristalina Georgieva, who is currently in Brussels as Vice-President of the EU Commission, are on a mutually assured destruction path. They are both high quality potential candidates, but their government in Bulgaria might decide in the end not to nominate either of them, for internal political reasons. Without nomination there is no chance of being chosen for the SG´s position.

Then, there are other names in Eastern Europe. But several of them might raise red flag objections in Moscow. And without Russia´s support, there is no room for success.

It might then be necessary to look for a last minute compromise. That´s when names like de Mistura could be put forward. If the Italian government makes the necessary move, of course. And that´s another unknown at this stage.