Crisis in South Sudan

South Sudan is in a mess. The crisis is deeper than many had thought. It has very strong tribal roots and that is the worst case scenario in a new country like South Sudan. The combatants are used to fight and it will very difficult to convince them that they have more to gain from a ceasefire and a political agreement than from being in charge of their part of the country. 

But the only way forward is to negotiate and to restore peace. A political arrangement is required. President Salva Kiir and Riek Machar, the two leaders that matter in this crisis, need to compromise. They have to be told so and in very clear terms.

The UN mission needs to work closely with the neighbouring countries ‘governments in order to contribute to a political solution. It cannot accept to be side-lined. And it cannot run away from its political responsibilities.

  

2014 priorities

I have been asked to look into 2014. That´s the routine question that is always raised as we approach the New Year. And then we list a number of things that need to be looked at during the next twelve months.

I also did it this time. The list is long, notwithstanding the deliberate effort I made to keep it short and as focused as possible. I added, as a justification that we live in complex times. But that´s not a very convincing reason. We have to be clear about the critical issues, the ones that really make a difference and then give them priority attention.

Can we bring the list down to two or three key issues, in terms of EU internal policy, and another two or three, when it comes to external policy?

That would be the true test of strategic focus. 

Today´s EU Council made me think of a funeral wake

The EU Council meeting has just ended in Brussels. The atmosphere in the room was not good. There was more suspicion and rivalry around the table than willingness to address the key challenges. Some were just looking in the direction of Cameron and asking themselves why is it the UK has been accepted as a member? I am sure that one or two even recalled in their minds old man De Gaulle and is opposition to Britain´s membership, and might have thought he was a politician of vision.  Others might have looked in Samaras direction and wondered about Greece´s presence in the club. The same they thought could be said about Cyprus, Romania, Bulgaria, Portugal and some other countries. Then, there was Angela Merkel. I get the impression the leaders were just trying to spot any change in her posture and opinions, now that she has consolidated once again her authority within German politics.

And there were Van Rompuy and Barroso out there. They might have looked to some of the stronger and harsher leaders as two phantoms that are just dragging their feet in the EU corridors, as ghosts that wait for the village priest to come and exorcise them from the place. They are experiencing a painful end of term and everybody knows that. But they are not alone in their predicament. Baroness Ashton keeps them the company she can.

This is indeed a time of morose for the European leaders. Europe as a project is at standstill. 2014 will be a year without collective ambitions. Each country will try to keep afloat. And each leader will be just confined and paying attention to the domestic fires. The EU elections in May next year will come and go without capturing people´s attention.

We will see. 

Putin, our dear friend...

As we come closer to the New Year, I keep saying that one of the international concerns in 2014 should be about Putin´s Russia. The EU has to revise its strategy towards Moscow and move away from political confrontation.

Putin loves a good fight and will be very pleased to oblige. He will answer to fire with more fire. That will give him a chance to play on the Russian extreme nationalism, which is deeply entrenched in many segments of the population. He knows how to get political dividends from any foreign antagonism to the motherland.

I see him weaker when it comes to responding to cooperation proposals. We should look for chances to positively engage the Russians in some of the critical international challenges. That is the way forward in our relationship. And that will place Putin in a defensive position. 

Be clear about your priorities

The EU and the P5 – the five permanent countries in the Security Council of the UN – took long to recognize the strategic importance of the Sahel and Mali, specifically, for international peace and security.

They finally started looking at it as a priority geopolitical zone of major importance for the stability of a very wide area, North and South of the Sahara, including the EU states.

Now, the challenge is to keep the external partners focused on the region.

This was my key message at last week´s meeting of the 5 plus 5 Initiative, which brings together the Defence Ministers from Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Malta with those from the Southern bank of the Mediterranean Sea, meaning Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and also Mauritania. 

To ignore the threats has also a cost

We keep talking about the cost of each peacekeeping operation, the funds required by proactive diplomacy and crisis prevention, the expenses related to military deployments in far-flung lands, etc.

But we never ask the other question: what would be the cost of inaction, what would be the financial, economic and human costs if we decide to remain out and passive?

There is indeed a cost if we help. However, sometimes that cost is just much smaller than the consequences of deciding to ignore.

This is certainly one example of a question that we have to start raising. 

Libya as a top prority for the French in 2014

The French Foreign Minister, Laurent Fabius, stated yesterday in Monaco, at the World Policy Conference annual meeting, that Libya will be his country´s political priority for 2014 in the international arena.

This is a good choice. Libya is in a big mess and needs strong support to be able to re-establish law and order and control the many armed groups that are scattered throughout the country. If this happens it will have a very positive impact on the domestic democratization process as well as on the Sahel and North Africa regions.

The demise of Kaddafi open many Pandora boxes. It created major threats to peace and stability. It is now time to bring the genies back into their bottles and firmly lock them inside.

My hope is that France would be able to bring other countries on board in an alliance to re-build Libya. It is not easy, as EU states are more divided than ever and can´t agree on a common approach on North Africa. But within the EU there are enough governments that would accept that the Southern bank of the Mediterranean Sea is indeed a priority matter. 

EU needs to have a firmer approach towards Qatar and Saudi Arabia

The EU, and in particular the High Representative for Foreign Affairs, should spend more time engaging the North African countries on common security concerns. She should also actively engage the Saudis and the Qataris. Both have a lot of influence in North Africa and the neighbouring countries. And that influence is sometimes used to promote objectives and doctrine that play against stability in the region and have a direct impact of supporting radical views.

This type of proactive diplomatic action would achieve much greater results, if done in strategic way and from a firm position, than any EU military or police operation. Qatar and Saudi Arabia should be made to understand that they cannot play the fundamentalist card in the backyard of Europe.

We need to strategically engage with Algeria

EU has not paid enough attention to Algeria. Or, this country remains a key player in North Africa and has a critical influence on the Sahel and on the fight against radical armed groups. Furthermore, Algeria is pivotal if we want to promote greater cooperation in North Africa as well as a stronger partnership between the region and Southern Europe.

I very much advocate for a serious debate about engaging Algeria. That would clarify the lines of engagement between us and that country. And it would also make it clear that such link is important for our common interests. 

Reconciliation in Mali

On the day of Nelson Mandela Memorial, I found myself writing a few notes about reconciliation in a post-crisis political process. The point was to look at Mali’s situation and try to make some recommendations.

I thought of Mandela, and started by saying that enlightened leadership at the top level of national authority is fundamental. Then I added that that the other levels of political responsibility need to change their approaches towards the minorities as well and adapt a fair attitude that invites inclusiveness. Finally, we need to put in place mechanisms of appeasement at the community level, between neighbours, ethnic groups, local people. On a daily base, that´s where the proof of the pudding takes place. At the grassroots level.

Is all this happening at present in Mali?

My answer is very simple: I am afraid not.