Putin´s game in Syria

Russia´s latest actions in Syria have confirmed my thesis as well as the opinion piece I publish today in the Portuguese weekly magazine Visão. Vladimir Putin´s goal is to keep Bashar al-Assad in charge. He thinks that the Damas man is the best bet in terms of safeguarding the Russian naval and air bases in the country. He also believes that there is no good replacement for Assad at this stage. He fully understands Assad´s limitations but he sees no other actor in a position to do better. Putin is afraid of a greater chaotic situation if his protégé falls. Therefore, he is ready to fight for him. But Putin is also a realist. He knows that sooner or later someone else has to be found. He is certainly looking for such a potential leader…

International law and the fight against terrorism

When discussing terrorism, one should keep in mind a number of issues. One of them is the concept of self-defence. Basically the point is about the lawful use of force by States against an individual or groups of individuals that are recognised as representing, planning or preparing to carry out a serious armed threat. Linked to the concept are the notions of gravity, imminence, and pre-emptive action as well as the measured use of force.

The UN has spent quite a bit of its time looking at these matters. There are two Security Council Resolutions that provide most of the legal basis for the response by States to terrorism. One, UN Security Council Resolution 1368 (2001) was approved in the aftermath of the 9/11 acts. The other – UNSC Resolution 1373 (2004) – authorises States “to take steps to prevent the commission of terrorist acts”.

As the discussion goes on and taking into consideration new developments, such as the drone strikes, it would be appropriate to review these resolutions and maybe adopt a more comprehensive one. The call for legal basis for action should be taken back to the UN Security Council. 

UN General Assembly

It was a busy day at the UN General Assembly. The speeches by key world leaders and the many side meetings have shown that the United Nations remains, notwithstanding all the constraints it faces, the key political forum for dialogue and cooperation. There is no other institution that can match the UN.

More specifically, the emphasis on development matters and on peace operations remains strong. They are important pillars of the UN´s work. But they should not let us forget the key relevance of human rights and women´s empowerment. 

Obama and Xi

Excellent speech by President Obama on the occasion of the Chinese President´s visit to the White House. He said the right things about cyber security, human rights, peace and cooperation in Asia and the economic ties between the two countries.

I am sure that President Xi Jinping, who is an astute and experienced player, will reflect about what Obama has said. And his first take will be about respect. Xi might not have liked what he heard but he will recognise that the current US President is a man of courage. And my experience tells me that a genuine leader appreciates courage in politics. It is actually a rare commodity, as many prefer an opportunistic approach.

Not Obama. 

Russia is moving to Syria

There is a debate going on about Russia´s intentions in Syria. The reinforcement of their airbase in the port city of Latakia goes far beyond force protection and self-defence considerations. It is a big move. It looks like creating a big logistics base for a deeper mission in Syria.

The next few days should allow us to have a better understanding of the Russian plans in that country. They should also give us a hint of Moscow´s plans regarding their presence in the region. 

Crazy Volkswagen leaders

The Volkswagen fraudulent approach to diesel-related emissions is most shocking. How could such a major corporation, one of the largest and most solid in the world, believe that cheating would go unnoticed and would bring them additional market share?

This is another eye-opener in today´s world. A very damaging one for that matter. The credibility of this company and all the related makes – VW, Seat, Porsche, Audi – is seriously affected. They will probably survive the crisis but with significant losses in terms of future sales and prestige. However, the greatest damage will be inflicted in all of us that have gradually lost confidence in traditional politics, then on banking, afterwards on promises of international solidarity, and now on car manufacturers.

This is another very heavy blow on trust and values. It is also a deep stain on Germany´s industrial and business elites.

It is at the same time, however, a reminder that we live in open societies. Openness leads to exposure and that´s the most effective way of dealing with the dishonesty of the powerful people, including those who believe, because they earn scandalous salaries and benefits, that they are well above the common mortals we are. 

The Pope´s approach

Pope Francis is in Cuba. And his visit shows that principles, diplomacy and attitude can immensely contribute to progressive change. It reminds us that today´s levers of power have a lot to do with values and approaches and much less to do with sanctions and military means. Sanctions and guns have some weight, no doubt about that. But their impact remains limited. They have to be part and parcel of a much larger approach. They have their moment. And then there is a time when they are no longer the best way forward.

That´s what is happening today in Cuba.

And we are fortunate that President Obama fully understands the change that is taking place. 

Burkina Faso must return to the democratic path

Burkina Faso is one of the better educated countries in West Africa. And its population is young and dynamic. There is in addition a good sense of national identity and cohesiveness. It is therefore unacceptable to see the Presidential Guard take over the executive power, stop the transition to democratic rule and try to bring back the former President, Blaise Compaoré. The coup d´état, carried out a couple of days ago, must be condemned firmly by all the friends of such an interesting and promising country. It would be a serious disservice to Africa if France and others in the EU would be seen as hesitating in their condemnation of the coup. 

Tell your story

In today´s developed and democratic societies, every political move, every key institution, every public action boils down to perception. More than the facts and the messages the political and social actors put across, what counts in the end is the way they are perceived and understood by the citizen. That´s why today´s wars are not just about fire power. Guns and bullets are still a deterrent, but not good enough. Wars, as well as any political fight, are gained and lost in the narrative that is communicated to people. 

About political action

In politics, style matters. Today´s politics call for people that look serious, modest and concerned with real problems as they are faced by the people. Rhetoric is now about sounding sincere and clear, nothing else.