Ebola

The West African states of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia continue to be confronted with Ebola, a major public health challenge. Death rates are above 90% of those infected. And the national health infrastructure in these countries is too poor to be able to respond in a big manner. Furthermore the areas that are particularly affected are very remote, in a beautiful but extremely isolated countryside. The local populations are deeply superstitious. They do not understand the Ebola virus issue and believe this is brought in by the medical teams that are there to help. All this makes the epidemic a major issue. Europe, among others, needs to take a much more proactive view of the problem. And to provide greater help.   

Putin is helping the EU to unite on the external front

The relations between the EU and the US, on one side, and Russia, on the other side, have now reached a point that brings the world back three decades at least. There is a very serious level of tension between the two blocs. President Putin, who has some friends in Europe, never thought that the mistrust that has been growing in certain circles in the West would go as far as it went today, with the approval of a new set of financial sanctions against Russia´s economic interests in Europe. He misread the politics. Europe needs a glue. Putin is, in many ways, providing it. 

I appreciate John Kerry´s efforts

Copyright V.Angelo

Israel should be reminded of some basic principles of international law

Hamas is certainly an extremist group included in the Western list of terrorist organizations. It needs to be fought and its actions ought to be stopped.

But fighting Hamas is not an excuse for Israel to behave as a State that does not respect the laws of the war, the principle of proportionate force, and the overriding rules about the protection of civilians and the interdiction to inflict collective punishment on innocent populations.

These norms should guide the actions of any civilised State, even when that State is exercising the right of self-defence. In all legislations, self-defence has its limits and needs to be advised by a great sense of restraint. That´s what the modern world is about. 

Little minds

There are so many new headlines from Gaza to Ukraine, from the planes that crash here and there, and then the Summer recess, that we just forget that the Nigerian school girls have not yet been freed, after several months in the hands of Boko Haram, and the Central African Republic is still the murderous chaos it was a few weeks back. And that the elections in Afghanistan are yet to be sorted out, long after the polling day. Not to mention Iraq, Libya, South Sudan, and so on...

War crimes are being committed

When the law of the war is not respect – and one should be reminded all the time that wars have their own body of international law that ought to be followed – war crimes are committed. And when they are committed the key leaders of the international community have to speak the words and say the right things. Leadership is about that. To call a spade a spade.  

In Turkey, the time for arresting senior police officers has arrived

Prime Minister Erdogan of Turkey is back on the offensive against his country´s institutions. This evening we are told that more than a hundred senior police officers have been arrested on very doubtful charges, including phone tapping.

The true reason is that Erdogan is a revengeful man. He cannot forget, and certainly not forgive, that these police officers have dared to investigate corruption matters within the leading circles of government, including possible ill actions carried out by the Prime Minister himself and his own family.

They will pay for doing their job.

As the top military officers have paid for being an objective and solid institution.

This is not the kind of leadership that can take the issue of EU membership forward. 

EU and Russia: sanctions and cooperation, the two sides of the coin

I have just finished my opinion piece of this week for Visão, a well-read general news magazine that is published every Thursday in Lisbon. This time the theme had to be about the relations between the EU and Russia, in the aftermath of the shooting down of the Malaysia Airlines plane.

My points are that we have to combine much tougher and better targetted economic sanctions against key Russian enterprises, including Rosneft, making sure they cannot access the European financial markets, with a continuous invitation for political dialogue between Europe and Russia. In the end, both blocs need each other. Russia, sooner or later, will require EU capital, technology and markets to develop its Far East. And Europe has a lot to gain by participating in the economic development of its big neighbour.

However the long term view cannot ignore the realities of today. And the key message here is that Russia has to fully implement the Helsinki Act of 1975 about peace and cooperation in Europe and non-interference in the internal affairs of other states. 

In Hindsight: Sanctions : July 2014 Monthly Forecast : Security Council Report

In Hindsight: Sanctions : July 2014 Monthly Forecast : Security Council Report

Politics and real life: two different worlds

On the day David Cameron announced the last Cabinet reshuffle I found myself wondering on the platform of Paddington Station, in London, watching the crowds coming out of the trains and rushing out of the building, all very focused on another day of work or any other business, and then I asked myself what is the relationship between politics and real life. I was unable to come up with a good answer. 

Putin´s plane

It is too early to fully grasp the possible impact of yesterday´s criminal action against the civilian airplane that killed so many innocent people. But it sounds very much as a turning point in the aggravation of the relations between the West and Russia.

The shooting down of the plane has shocked many people across the world. It makes it much easier to mobilise public opinion against the Russian leadership. I am sure that Vladimir Putin feels today under much greater pressure than before.

Such pressure might help to understand that the time has come for him to convince his men in Eastern Ukraine to change tactics and to envisage an end to the armed insurrection. If that could be the outcome of the tragedy than we would be better prepared to accept yesterday´s tragedy. But even then, we have to make sure that those who shot down the aircraft are brought to justice. These things cannot go unpunished. A credible international board of inquiry is a must. 

A plane too much

The shooting-down of the Malaysia Airlines plane is clearly the work of the separatists Russia supports in Ukraine.

The tragedy brings in two points: Russia has to stop its backing of these individuals; and the Kiev government has to assess its own capability to deal with the rebels. If the assessment concludes that the government forces cannot resolve the crisis in the very near future, then the solution is to ask for help from Ukraine´s friends. The point is that the armed violence has lasted for too long and should therefore be resolved without further ado. 

Juncker is now confirmed as the new EC President

Jean-Claude Juncker has just been confirmed, by a vote in the European Parliament, as the new President of the European Commission. The vote was good enough to give him a very good starting vantage point. He should be able to take over from José Manuel Barroso in a much stronger position than the one out-going Barroso has found himself during the last years of his mandate. This should be good news for the Commission´s future. It also puts the Commission in a better and more balanced footing when dealing with the Heads of State and Government.

Kerry is not welcome in today´s Israel

It is quite clear the Obama Administration is not welcome in Netanyahu´s Israel. With the current crisis having last for more than a week, and the very serious loss of civilian lives, it would have been appropriate to send John Kerry back to Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Ramallah. Furthermore, that trip would bring some credits back to the Americans, within the Arab world. But Washington knows this move would meet with Netanyahu´s opposition. Therefore, the Administration remains silent. Notwithstanding the noise coming from the fighter jets, the rockets, the human suffering and the death of many innocent civilians. 

Israel has to respond in a proportionate manner

Israel, as a close ally of the West, should be requested to behave with full respect for international law. In particular, it has to be told to be proportionate in the way it responds to the security threats coming from the other side of the wall. 

Insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea: where are the root causes

At yesterday´s international meeting on Security in the Gulf of Guinea, convened by the Portuguese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, I built my intervention five security dimensions that are critical to understand the root causes of the challenges the region is facing.

They are:

          Widespread poverty, desperation, shrinking opportunities for survival –example, less fish available to the coastal communities – , advancing desertification, over-grazing and community conflicts, high cost of living; this is the livelihood dimension.

          Very high rate of population growth, domestic migrations, rapid urbanization, transfer of poverty to the cities, youth unemployment, marginalization and urban crime, armed gangs; the demographics dimension.

          Extremely weak State institutions in all sectors, including in the areas of national and domestic security; this is State ineffectiveness dimension.

          Governance and democratic deficits, human rights violations, widespread corruption and ineptitude, predatory elites; this is the governance dimension.

          Radicalisation and simplification of the political-religious discourse; the influence of radical preachers trained in and funded by Middle Eastern Countries; the identity and ethnicity as instruments of power and exclusion; this is the extremist dimension.

Israel and Palestine will be at it for a long time

The situation in Israel and Gaza is again at its worst. It reminds us, as it does so often, that there is no real mechanism to peacefully sort out major complex crises, if one or both sides believe that the only option that is left to them is through war. It is also a sharp and dramatic reminder of the ambivalence of the big powers. In this case, the US has shown that they cannot, for domestic political reasons, be part and judge of a conflict. You are either one or the other. And you assume it clearly.

I do not write often about this part of the world for a very simple reason. I do not see a solution to the conflict. This is one those violent disputes that will stay with us for another generation or two. In the meantime, people suffer and lives are just wasted. 

Illegal crossings and poor politics

The illegal crossing of the Mediterranean Sea by hundreds of African migrants is a daily occurrence. They sail off the Libyan coast and try to reach the Italian territory. But they have disappeared from the news. If one tries to read about these dramatic movements in any of the major European papers one just gets nowhere. The matter is being ignored anywhere outside Italy. And it has also disappeared from the discussions in the the EU fora. The issue, which is of course a common concern, is seen as an Italian matter. And then the Italians just let the migrants loose, in the hope they will move North and out of the country. Many of them will find indeed their way into the Calais area, in Northern France, just waiting for a chance to cross into the UK. Others will move into other EU countries. The issue is plainly out of control, all over the place, from the islands in Southern Italy to Brussels, London, Paris and elsewhere. Nobody cares. It is not in the news therefore does not exist...politically.  

Football is about national dreams

Football is big, big business. But it is also about politics. And in some cases, like in Belgium, it is also about strengthening national unity. The Belgian team has done its bit to bringing together the different communities of a divided country. Yesterday, their loss against Argentina, after a fair game, was in many ways a blow to a few more days of dream. Including the dream that people can unite because they share a common history and background, and also a number of interlinked interests.

Without dreams there is no future. The role of national footballers is to play it right. The role of leaders is also to be able to go for the right game. 

Italy´s promising presidency of the EU

The Italian presidency, this semester, of the EU might bring in a new debate about economic growth, fiscal responsibility and the role of national governments vis-a-vis the Brussels institutions.

Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is a young politician. He brings a bit of courage and fresh air to EU politics. We might disagree with some of his positions but we should recognise that his interventions are forcing the German politicians and other leaders from the North to engage in a dialogue that had been missing for a long while.

EU has a lot to gain from a proper exchange of contradictory but well formulated views. Political diversity is good for Europe. 

Insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea

I have been asked to look at the security challenges in the Gulf of Guinea. There will be an international meeting on the subject in Lisbon on 11 July. States from the region, and partner nations from the EU and elsewhere, including Brazil and the US, are supposed to attend.

The meeting comes out of a growing concern about the security challenges facing Coastal West Africa, as the next expansion area of a crisis that has shaped the Sahel during the recent past. The sea lanes are along West Africa are vital for many interests, including the oil and fishing interests of European countries.

As I get deeper into the subject I come to old conclusions: poor governance in the region, extremely weak states, predatory elites, inadequate cooperation policies on the side of rich countries, widespread disrespect for human rights, all that play a role and seriously contribute to a complex situation that could easily get out of hand in the future.