Mali and the international community

Mali is still in crisis. The Northern territories are far from being secured and the political situation in the capital and throughout the country is very unstable.  The Dialogue and Reconciliation Commission formally adopted on 6 March 2013 is yet to start working. Many of its Commissioners have not yet been appointed. The UN peace-keeping operation is at the design stage. The Security Council resolution that will approve the mission, under the very strange name of United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) – multidimensional needs not to be in the name, if it is an integrated mission – has been drafted but has not yet been finalised. In any case, if it were approved in the next weeks it will take several months to have the peacekeeping forces fully operational. On the other hand, the EU presence that is supposed to train the new Malian military and security personnel is just beginning its deployment.

In view of all this, the elections scheduled for July 2013 – presidential elections on 7 July 2013 and legislative elections on 21 July 2013 – seem pretty premature. I do not see the necessary minimum conditions being in place by July for peaceful and credible elections to take place. Therefore, I can’t understand the reasoning of the key Northern partners of Mali that continue to insist that this calendar should be abided by. 

On terrorism

Terrorism remains a major threat in some corners of the world. Our duty is to condemn all forms of terrorism anywhere and remember that the fight against terrorism is above all a police task. The role of politicians and intellectuals is to advocate for the police to be given the means to do their job, within the law and with full respect for the rights of the citizens. .

Then, after the police work, it is a matter of effective administration of justice.

My experience, sometimes in difficult conditions, has taught me that those who try to fight it through military means or by ways of political concessions are taking the issue from the wrong end. 

No ambiguity this time

In the field of international affairs, ambiguity is a useful political tool. Some call it "constructive ambiguity". I advocate its use as often as possible. Smart leaders do not need to hear the full sentence to understand what is at stake. Furthermore, ambiguity allows for some face saving decisions. Ambiguity creates room for compromise.

But there is a time when the clarity of the message is essential. It serves as a serious warning.

John Kerry’s message to North Korea, during the last few days, when visiting China and Japan, was indeed very clear. And dead serious. The young man of Pyongyang has gone too far and should know that he will pay dearly if he crosses the line on the sand.

My impression is that Kerry’s notice has been received. 

Syria's impact in Europe

The Belgian political leadership sees with great concern a number of young men volunteering to fight side by side with the rebel groups in Syria. They are Belgian nationals with an immigrant background. They come from Muslim families that migrated to Belgium one or two generations ago. Their parents might be mosque-going people but are not extremists. The younger fellows, many of them in their early twenties, make contact with radical groups through informal clubs, sports associations, coffee shops and internet sites. As they feel relatively disconnected from the Belgian way of life and society they are fertile ground for the radical seeds to grow.

The authorities are trying to address the problem. But these informal networks of tiny cells are very difficult to spot and monitor. It is even difficult to have a realistic estimate of the numbers involved. But it is certainly a big issue, if one takes into account the political and security attention the matter is getting these days. 

The useful idiot

In the end, Kim Jong-un is more than just a dangerous loony, he is a useful idiot. His gimmicks have become an impeccable justification for a much deeper involvement of the US military in the region. The US pivot to Northeast Asia, initiated a year or so ago, is now given a new impetus.

Kim’s follies have also given a chance to the new government in Japan to put together an extraordinary show of force in Tokyo. This masterly move has now caught the attention of the citizens, taking them away from other concerns related to the poor performance of the Japanese economy or the nuclear meltdown at Fukushima.

 And the dangerous fool will end up by contributing to an acceleration of the arms race in a region where China, South Korea and Japan, in particular, are major military competitors.

It’s indeed time to stop this fellow. 

Crossing the desert

A lonely rooster was walking across the desert. It was a long walk under very harsh conditions. But the proud cock was, in his own judgment, no fool. He had a purpose and a destination in mind. So, he kept marching…

(Here my story is interrupted by a lady from Berlin that, in a very down-to-earth manner, adds that… then the poor fellow collapses and dies of thirst and exhaustion!).

What a finale!

In the world of this lady there is no room for out-of-the-box imagination.

EU Commission should be more daring

You ask EU Economic Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn and his team what is the solution for country A or B or C to return to growth and you always get the same prescription. They seem to know only one mantra. It has three lines: augment your exports; lower your labour costs; cut your public debt.

I wonder.

If every EU should boost its exports, where are the import markets?

How far should one lower the labour costs to be competitive with China or Bangladesh?

Why should we cut public debt so dramatically at a time of recession? Why can’t we get the European Central Bank’s statutes changed in order for it to be able to do some quantitative easing? Is Rehn afraid of saying that because he does not wish to offend Berlin?

The point here is very simple. We expect the EU Commission to tell the citizens of Europe what should be done effectively, together and on a country by country basis. They at the Commission are paid to produce an independent advice.

Then, Berlin, The Hague, and other capitals and their national politicians will respond if, yes or no, they want to do it.

A Commission that only recommends what the EU political masters want to hear is useless.  

Mozambique needs to enhance the domestic political dialogue

On Saturday about twenty armed men attacked a police station in a rural area of central Mozambique. The attackers could be linked to former rebels of Renamo, an organization that fought the Frelimo-led government during the eighties and early years of the nineties. That was at the time a very ugly civil war.

Today, Renamo has changed itself in to a political movement. As a party, it sits in Parliament and its leader, Afonso Dhlakama, is given the status of Opposition leader. But the old tensions between the two sides are still very much part of Mozambique’s political life. The Saturday incident is only a remote reminder of the widespread, deep animosity that defines the relations between Renamo and the party in power, Frelimo.  

 Mozambique’s Human Rights League (LDH) has just called the attention of those who want to see the reality that civil war could come back. And it appeals for statesmanship, tolerance and political consultations. Particularly at a time when local elections are being prepared and national legislative elections are scheduled for 2014.

During the last twenty years the donor community has invested heavily in the country.  They have become major partners in the peace building process. They should make use of their leverage to push both political sides to dialogue. It would be a serious mistake – which the key international players cannot afford – to pretend that there is no problem. 

UNDP and the interests of the private sector

UNDP, the UN Development Programme, is about to finalise its new policy on partnerships with private corporations and foundations. Initial indications tell us that the organization will not accept any kind of association with firms and institutions linked to the tobacco and arms industries.

This is certainly a good decision.

It will be interesting to find out if the exclusionary criteria will also include financial houses that make tonnes of money on speculative transactions as well as other companies that are known for their very limited respect for local communities or the environment. 

Margaret Thatcher: a simple tribute

Margaret Thatcher, who died this morning, stood among the most salient leaders of the second half of the 20^th Century. Born in poverty and being a woman in a man’s world, she overcame stereotype and prejudice. She was a person of great nerve and resolve, very tactical and at the same time, focussed on the big picture and strategic. Like many leaders, she could be extremely stubborn and very suspicious about the people surrounding her.

All in all, her example inspired many; even those who deeply disagreed with her ideologically charged conservative views and policies.