On Ariel Sharon´s demise

The reactions in the Middle East to Ariel Sharon´s death are a bitter reminder of the profound hatred and fears that define the relations between the Jews and the Arabs.

In trying to find a durable solution, acceptable to both communities, it will be much easier to address the fears than the hatred. One should keep that in mind and negotiated an agreement that keeps both sides reasonable sure of their safety and security. 

Hollande´s serial mistakes

Today President François Hollande was again on the news and once more for the wrong reasons.

This time, a gossip magazine writes about a covert liaison the President has with a young woman, in betrayal of his official relationship with the woman that is considered the de facto First Lady of France. And a number of pictures go with this revelation.

This kind of behaviour shows poor political judgement. How could he believe the liaison would remain secret? He, like everybody else, can change his mind and look for love elsewhere. But when you are the president of a country you do that in a clear and open way. You do not behave like a small boy, trying to hide away from the public eye. You do not create the conditions for the media, your wife and your political allies to catch you with the pants down. And also for your adversaries to make ridicule of you.

And when they catch you, you rise to the challenge. You accept the reality. You do not invoke, if you are the leader of a country, the right to make political mistakes in private.

Once more, François Hollande has shown he is major political disappointment.

And again he went down in the credibility ladder. 

Portugal´s financial image has improved

Portugal´s international financial image got a boost today. The government managed to sell 5-year sovereign debt paper for a total amount of 3,5 billion euros at a very favourable rate: 4,657%.

The point is now to be able to attract the foreign investors’ interest to put money into the real economy. The Portuguese entrepreneurs have been doing well and exports have increased during 2013. But that´s is not enough. The country needs major injections of capital into the productive sectors. And that can only happen if the govern manages to capitalise on the image of the country and show Portugal as a safe investment destination. 

EU renewal

Greece has just taken the presidency of the EU for the first semester of this year. It is their turn, as the rules go.

And it is a good coincidence that we have Europe´s crisis case in charge.

I hope the Greeks will take advantage of the leadership position and make use of it to bring the South and the North of Europe closer. Greece should promote a new understanding of the relations and partnerships within the EU. Fight the divide and encourage cooperation. 

This would be their unique contribution to the next six months. 

Can they do it? 

Erdogan´s arrogance

Where is Erdogan´s Turkey going to? This is the question we hear these days in Brussels. And it is a true question in the sense that nobody can predict, at this stage, what will be the reaction of the Police, the Judiciary, the Armed Forces and above all, the people´s response to the crisis that is gaining strength.

Is Erdogan fighting for his political survival? Or is he just so politically oblivious, after many years of power, that he can´t see that the only future for Turkey is democracy and tolerance? 

EU´s dream

The EU project needs revitalization. How can we achieve it at a time when the political leaders ‘credibility is so low?

The renewal cannot be based on fear. It has to be about hope and trust on a better common future.

 If I had money and power I would launch a major pan-European initiative to bring Europe back to the centre of the political debate. The point would be to give our common project new wings and release the citizens’ dreams of more harmonious Union. 

And this would be the time to do it, before the May elections for the European Parliament. 

Central African Republic: the forgotten crisis

When it comes to political decisions, the Central African Republic remains outside the main radar screens, notwithstanding all the dramatic news about the civil unrest in the country. France is on it alone, playing a complex role that has more to do with gendarmerie and police tasks than with military assignments. But what is on the ground is a military expeditionary force. That is feeling more and more frustrated by the type of challenges they have to face in Bangui, and also because they are so stuck in the capital city that they can´t respond to the problems elsewhere in the country.

This French force should be rapidly complemented by a comprehensive peacekeeping operation, under the overall leadership of the UN. That is not going to happen any time soon. The African Union is very reluctant when it comes to accepting a UN force. They are still convinced, I want to believe, that they will be able to deploy an AU mission and take care of the security situation. It is unrealistic as an approach. The African Union is no measure to put together the required integrated force. They should be confronted with such truth. And they should also cease to play along the interests of the Chadian President, Idriss Déby, who seems to be the key African opponent to a UN presence.

The US is also against a UN mission in CAR. They base their position on the fact that such mission would carry additional financial costs to Washington. And they do not want to put more money, at this stage, on UN peacekeeping operations. OK, I can understand the costs issue. That could be sorted out by drawing down the missions in Haiti, Cote d´Ivoire and Liberia at a much faster pace. These are missions that have long ago achieved their key goals and should only be continued with a much smaller field presence.

By the way, the approval of additional forces in South Sudan, which has a very high budget tag, was accepted by Washington in a matter of hours…

That´s why I say that CAR is the forgotten crisis. It has always been like that. 

Erdogan´s undemocratic path

We should be very worried in view of the recent developments in Turkey. And today we should be even more apprehensive. Erdogan´s comments against the judiciary do not augur well. They show he believes that politics is above the rule of law. A leader cannot claim he has a popular mandate that allows him to go beyond the bounds of the constitution and the laws of the land.

 Erdogan has to respect the democratic rules and Turkey´s legal system. If he doesn’t, where is the country going to?

Europe and the US have not been brave enough to have a proper political dialogue with Erdogan. They remained silent when he did what he did to the military establishment. And they are directionless again, as the democracy is more and more at stake in Turkey. 

The men in Addis Ababa

The Sheraton Hotel in Addis Ababa houses one the best Indian restaurants in East Africa. But its name is not necessarily associated with the quality of that excellent eating place. The hotel is above all known for its luxury environment and high cost accommodation.

Today the world could see some TV images taken at the hotel entrance, as the delegates that will negotiate the South Sudan´s peace agreement gathered for a marathon of discussions. These were tough men in soft set-up. Men of power in a setting of wealth and indulgence.

After that, we could watch a series of dramatic pictures taken outside Bor. The contrast could not be wider. These images gave us a quick synopsis of the suffering the people are going through. In this case, it was soft people, powerless men, women and children, in a setting of great dispossession. Their future is being played at the Addis Sheraton. But can we trust the players?

Peace and security in the Middle East

The Middle East remains a region deeply unstable. And the UN Secucity Council, which has the principle responsibility for international peace and security, is clearly unable to play a constructive role in the region. What we see, at the beginning of this New Year, is a serious deterioration of the internal security situation in Iraq and Lebanon. Both countries share border lines with Syria and this makes them part of a larger system of instability and conflict in critical part of the world.

If we look beyond these three states, we will see fragile situations in several neighbouring countries. To the East, that corridor of fragility includes Afghanistan and Pakistan. Closer to Syria, I would not underestimate the potential for trouble that exists in countries like Jordan, Bahrain, and even in Turkey. Then, we have Yemen and Egypt, Libya and the Arab states of North Africa.

In this context, 2014 will be a busy year for all those who care about security, protection of civilians and human rights issues in the larger Middle East region.