Quick note on Davos 2016

Davos 2016 is now completed. The last footprints on the snow are just disappearing. But the intellectual and political footprints that marked four days of discussions will remain for a good while. We can say a lot of bad things about Davos and its crowds. But we have also to recognise that the annual meetings offer a special opportunity to reflect about the present and the future. Some of the best minds engage in the debates. And that´s the big plus of the Davos initiative.

There are many take-home ideas that came out of the many sessions, dialogues and presentations. I would like to refer to three of them.

First, today´s world faces a good deal of simultaneous crises. This combination of very profound challenges carries a new level of risks, an unprecedented hodgepodge of perils. 

Second, the nations and the international institutions are not prepared to respond to the complexities. That makes everything much more dangerous and unpredictable. It also contributes in a very big way to the discredit of leaders and the international system, including the UN.

Third, we can expect a very serious increase of the inequalities. As we move into more sophisticated forms of production and economic activity, the income and wealth differences will increase. On one side, we will see those who can take advantage of the new technologies and of the global system of exchanges. On the other, there will masses of individuals and families left behind. Power and fragility will be the sides of the future. And we can expect that people will not be ready to accept it with just a smile.

Tunisia needs Europe´s attention

The Tunisian youth is again on the streets. Five years after the beginning of the democratic transition many things have been achieved in terms of freedom, human rights and gender. The country remains the only example, in the Arab region, of a peaceful and legitimate change. But the economic opportunities are still missing. It is dreadfully hard to find a job. The terrorist attacks have kept the tourists away. The complex and dangerous situation in the neighbourhood, with Libya on one side and Algeria on the other, is not helping either. Many young Tunisians have actually been radicalised and about five thousand of them have joined the ranks of the barbaric organization that calls itself “Islamic State”.

In addition, there are serious governance issues that have not been addressed. Corruption is widespread. All these problems have created the impression that there is no future for the younger generations. The overall sentiment is one of deep frustration. Therefore, people are back to the streets, and again in very large numbers.

I have called on several occasions for assistance to the Tunisian democracy. The country needs investments, trade agreements, gender-balanced skills development, security assistance and tourists. It also requires a major overhaul of its public administration. EU should focus on Tunisia. France has promised today one billion euros of financial assistance to be disbursed during the next five years. But Paris should also be the Tunisian advocate in the European institutions. Europe cannot let Tunisia down.

The Syrian negotiations should go ahead

The negotiations on Syria are scheduled for next week in Geneva. The formal leadership of the process rests with the UN. And it is in the interest of the UN to have a diverse representation of the factions that are engaged in the conflict, with the exception of the most extreme, such as the so-called Islamic State and the al-Qaeda inspired Jabhat al-Nusra. Everybody else who is prepared to discuss should be around the place. Not necessarily, at the beginning, around the same table, but part of the process for sure.

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Russia and other countries are trying to prevent some movements from being invited. We could expect that. It´s consistent with their interests. But it´s up to the UN to say no to that kind of pressure.

There are no saints in the Syria disaster. This is a tragedy of devils. But those among them that believe they can negotiate, give and take, should be in. In these matters you confront and discuss with your enemies, including the worst among them. And you appreciate their willingness to be around. That´s actually the difference between them and the terrorists. A terrorist is a criminal that accepts no room for a compromise.

On Iran and the lifting of the sanctions

The nuclear-related sanctions against Iran have been lifted. The country is back in terms of business with the West. It is also open for a new type of political engagement with our part of the world. All that can only be seen as good news. Besides the economic opportunities this new situation opens, it is also a contribution to a more balanced distribution of power in the Middle East. The next step is to help the country and Saudi Arabia to normalise their diplomatic relations. It´s in the interest of both countries and also to the advantage of conflict resolution in the region. 

Taiwan´s elections and post-electoral realism

The people of Taiwan voted heavily for the opposition, both in terms of the presidential and legislative elections. Opposition leader Tsai Ing-wen has been elected as Taiwan’s next president. She will be the first woman to lead the country.

In the past, Ms. Tsai was the leading Taiwanese negotiator with China. Therefore she knows how important is to keep the line open with Beijing, even if the majority of her support comes from those who would like to see Taiwan become an independent country. It is a fine balancing act that is required from her but political realism leaves no other option for Taiwan. Anything else would further complicate the tense situation that is already a key feature of the geopolitical situation in East Asia. 

Terrorism in Ouagadougou

Another day, another terrorist attack. This time the target is an international hotel in Ouagadougou, the capital of Burkina Faso. In the evening, there were a couple of explosions outside the hotel and then a group of armed men stormed the facility. At this stage it is still a developing crisis. I am afraid it will end as a very tragic event.

Burkina Faso is a good example in Africa. The country has just completed a democratic transition. Elections were disputed with fair play and the results accepted by everyone. A new President and a fresh government have just been inaugurated. All seems very promising in a country that has a very young population, well educated and where the religious and ethnic diversity has not been played by the politicians. It is a pretty tolerant and open society.

It is also next door to Mali and part of the Sahel region. These are very sensitive areas.

Tonight´s sad events in Ouagadougou are just a reminder, a very dramatic one, of the dangers that many countries are facing these days. The fight against terrorism is now one of the top priorities and does call for an international supporting mechanism. Countries like Burkina Faso need and deserve such support. 

They are often wrong but the salary is great

My daily tasks include a close scrutiny of the financial analysts’ opinions and forecasts. And I am very often amazed. The spectrum of views is so wide and the predictions are so often off track! With time, their forecasts are systematically contradicted by the facts, particularly at times like the present one when the unknowns are many. But they always have a good excuse. And they earn good salaries. All that makes me wonder, now and then, if I have not chosen the wrong career path. 

Obama´s State of the Union speech seen from Brussels

The European media treated President Obama´s State of the Union speech very kindly. The spin has indeed been very positive.

For most of us in the EU, Obama continues to be perceived as a very principled politician and also as a wise leader. People know the American economy is now stronger, jobs have been created in large numbers – 14 million new jobs during his presidency –, the unemployment rate has been cut in half and the government deficit slashed by three-quarters. Europeans also know that Obama has given priority to diplomacy and multilateralism when addressing international issues. Moreover, they feel that the US under Obama has not abandoned Europe, notwithstanding the new critical challenges America is confronted with in the Far East.

There is one more year to go before he completes his second mandate. In international politics, one year is a very short period of time. Most likely the transatlantic free trade agreement between the US and the EU – known as TTIP – wil not be completed before Obama´s departure. In many ways, the reasons for delay belong to the European side. But his name will certainly be associated to the effort to bring the two sides together in terms of free commerce. And shared commercial interests bring nations together and give them a mutual sense of confidence and security.

                                        

Istanbul, Europe and Merkel

Today´s terrorist attack in Istanbul must be unequivocally condemned. The victims and their families as well as the people of the city and of Turkey deserve our deepest sympathies and the strongest expression of our solidarity.

We should also profoundly worry as this act shows a very high level of strategic planning.

First, it targeted the core of the tourism industry in the emblematic city of Istanbul. It aimed at attacking the city´s image, the efficiency of the security services, who were in high alert, and the economy of the country. It is also an act of revenge against the government´s recent crackdown on Islamic State activities.

Second, it was clearly directed against German tourists above all. I do not think this is a coincidence. It was certainly a deliberate choice. The ultimate objective was to contribute to undermine Angela Merkel´s authority. The German Chancellor has been very responsive to the plight of the Syrian refugees. Such an approach is contrary to the message the Islamic State terrorists would like to put across the Muslim world. They wanted to show that the key European leader – and Europe for that matter – had a hostile approach to Muslim people.

They would also want to see Europe in crisis as a result of the mass arrival of refugees. Merkel´s leadership has prevented the potential crisis from materialising. In their view, she has to be seriously destabilised for Europe to lose direction and balance. 

War crimes in Syria

Madaya, the Syrian town that has been under siege for more than six months, surrounded by government troops, is a symbol. As are the towns of Foah and Kefraya, in the Northern part of the country. They have also endured a very long siege, this time by rebel groups that are fighting the regime of President al-Assad.

In Madaya, around 40,000 people have been without food and medicines supplies. In the two government-controlled towns, the numbers are close to 20,000. All three are not only a reminder of the ferocity of the conflict that is consuming Syria since 2012, of the widespread human suffering, they are also an example of the many war crimes that every side is committing.

Indeed, starving masses of civilians to death, as it is the case in these towns, is a war crime, as defined by international law. But after so many atrocities, we are losing sight of the very serious violations of the law of the war that keep occurring in the country. That´s certainly not a very good approach to justice. The peace process, when it happens, has to take these matters into account as well.