Aleppo

The Russian forces deployed in Syria are now focussed on getting the city of Aleppo and its surrounding areas under Assad´s control. That´s were their current main effort is. Not on the Islamic State terrorists. As they do that, tens of thousands of people move out of the area and try to seek refuge in Turkey. This gives the Russians another reason to go for Aleppo: it ends up by increasing the pressure on the Turks. And, as we know, the Russians have an axe to grind with Turkey. This is a way of doing it. All this aggravates the geopolitical tensions and makes a political solution even more remote. Actually, at this stage I see almost no chance to get the Geneva talks back on the agenda. The bet seems, once again, to be on a military response to an inhumane chaotic situation. 

About the Syrian donors´meeting

One facet of the recent big pledging conferences, like the one of yesterday in London, convened to mobilise resources for Syrian refugees, is that most of promises never materialise. Countries make commitments, and in some cases, very substantial ones. But the disbursements, in many cases, are well below the pledges. And in other cases, countries do announce contributions that never materialise.

One of the reasons is that the monies that are declared during the conferences have never been discussed with the country´s finance minister. They come out of the foreign minister´s mouth. He or she might be a very influential and strong politician. But in the end, funds are the prerogative of finance ministers.

I have seen many disappointments after these types of meetings. One gets the impression that the call was very successful only to realise later on that most of funds never materialise. That creates frustration. It also gives room for very serious misunderstandings between the authorities from the receiving countries and the intended beneficiaries. The latter do not see the support promised and then get to believe that the money was misappropriate by the administering authorities. 

Cameron might lose the referendum on the EU

My column of today in the Visão magazine on line is about the relations between the EU and the UK. The text is in Portuguese, of course. My point is that the proposals made by the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, should be supported. Some EU leaders think that Tusk has gone too far in terms of concessions. It is not really the case. He has been able to put together some generic rules that can be used by Britain and by any other country. They are based on David Cameron´s demands but do not give him everything he had asked for. Now it is up to the British Prime Minister to be able to convince his party and the voters that there is enough “reform” to justify the continuation of the UK within the EU. And that´s a big challenge. At this stage, I am afraid the referendum will be lost. Brexit is today a possibility. Cameron has to fight very hard to prevent that.  

On UN peace operations

Many political and military leaders are very much influenced by their experiences in the stabilisation missions as implemented in Afghanistan and Iraq and would like the UN peace missions to be somehow modelled on those experiences. That explains also why there is these such a push for more robust UN peacekeeping operations and for enforcement campaigns.

It was a bit the same after the operations in the Balkans in the 1990s. 

Supporting the political process in Libya

We shouldn´t lose sight of the appalling crisis that is going on in Libya. There are some good people out there, trying to bring things under control and the European powers – or what remains of such powers… – should get much more engaged and supportive. They should start by giving leverage to the efforts the UN is pursuing in order to bring law, order and basic human rights to Libya.

The alternative is further chaos at our doorsteps, growing menaces, more people smuggling into Europe, and above all leaving the space ready for the violent extremists to win the game. 

Comics: a man´s world

In Europe, the key annual event about comics and cartoons takes place every January in Angoulême, an old town lost somewhere in the South-West of France. This year´s festival is just over. During four days, thousands of new creations by some of the world´s leading cartoonists were exhibited. As in the previous years, Angoulême attracted big crowds.

A major prize is attributed to one of cartoonists. It is like a top Oscar. It sends the message that the laureate has made it to the hall of fame. In 2016, among the 30 names selected for inclusion in the final list of candidates to the prize there was no woman. Here, in the comics world, like in many other domains of life, gender is still a silent but extremely efficient filter. 

Syria´s moves

In the end, it might not result. But the UN´s determination in moving ahead with the Syrian political talks in Geneva most be commended. Every interested party, from the country and from the outside world, with the exception of the Islamic State and Al-Nusra Front terrorists, has to be faced with the reality: it is time to find a political solution to the long lasting crisis. They better sit around the table or in the rooms next door and be part of the solution.

It will not be easy. But it is the only way forward.

It should however be accompanied by an intensification of the campaigns against the two terrorist organisations mentioned above. That new degree of intensity can only be achieved through the action of Special Forces. As the Geneva process takes off the ground, the background discussions about the use and the role of such forces should take place elsewhere and under the co-leadership of the US and Russia. The UN should have no role there. 

The EU has to move fast on a common immigration policy approach

There is urgency. The EU should agree on a common immigration policy without further delays. The work on it has to start now and the citizens ought to be made aware of it. But, attention, the proposal should originate from a group of wise men and women. They should be requested by the European Commission to consult with the different governments and then come up with a policy platform that could be adopted by all the states. It should be possible to achieve this kind of agreement. It´s worth trying. What we cannot see is the continuation of the current cacophony, with each capital going at it alone. This creates aberrant situations, opens plenty of space for incomprehension, gives chances to those who want to criticise. 

Combatting radicalisation

There is an EU Commissioner for Migration and Home Affairs. Among his responsibilities, I would underline the following: “identifying where the EU can make a real difference in fighting terrorism and radicalisation, with an emphasis on addressing the problem of foreign fighters”.

That sounds good.

And there is indeed a lot of work that has been done by different EU players and also in coordination with the member States during the last two years, after the approval on 15 January 2014 of a plan under the title of “Preventing Radicalisation to Terrorism and Violent Extremism: Strengthening the EU's Response”. The problem seems to be that the European public opinion is not aware of all this. The citizens have the impression that there isn´t really an approach to deal with radicalisation.

I think it is time to inform them. That´s another way of combatting the growing fear. 

UN on Israel´s settlements

Today the UN Secretary-general expressed his concerns regarding the continued expansion of Israeli settlements in occupied territories. And he called for a freeze of the expansion. There is nothing very new here, but it is important it has been said by the top UN official.

The Prime Minister of Israel did not like Ban Ki-moon´s words. I can understand that. What I cannot accept is Benjamin Netanyahu´s official written statement accusing the SG of “encouraging terrorism”.