Gullibility

The more I listen to the noises made by the incoming US President on matters of international affairs, the more I get convinced that when it comes to his views about Russia and China he is a naïve. It´s all unsophisticated inspiration and no experience or wise listening to those who know about those countries ´political leaders. And that is certainly not good news, it can´t augur well for the US and their allies, especially when you have on the other side of the table foxy fellows like Putin and Xi. These two are no joke. They do not tweet. They plan. 

Who is in charge?

The journalist from Macao asked me who in the EU is taking the lead in the fight against populist and xenophobic ideas. It was a genuine question with a serious touch of apprehension. For someone from afar two things seemed to be obvious: that there is a growing extremist political wave in Europe and that some personalities are for sure fully engaged in combatting such trend.

Well, for me, the first part is indeed obvious. The current radicalism combined with old fashioned nationalistic fantasies is a matter of concern, for sure. But the other dimension – who is taking the lead and proposing a more generous and democratic alternative that would make the European dream great again, as someone would say – the answer is not so easy. Actually, I am still looking for an answer.

Mario Soares: a great European

Today, at the age of 92, Mario Soares, the former President and also Prime Minister of Portugal, passed away. He had been a symbol of freedom and democratic values during his days in politics. Furthermore, he was a firm believer in the unity of the European nations. Soares was convinced that Europe can only move into the future if it remains in peace with itself, mutually supportive and united. He was also an excellent example of leadership: unusual, not afraid of speaking his mind, and always connected with the feelings of the majority of the citizens. It is time to honour his memory and exalt his example. 

Elections money

Elections will take place in a number of EU countries this year. And interestingly enough, we will see those countries actively borrowing in the capital markets. Italy´s government will be number one. They intend to issue public debt bonds totaling € 271 billion. That´s a lot of money, to be paid by future governments and the younger people. France will be number two. They should be in market to borrow over €200 billion. Even Germany, with general elections later in the year, will be looking for fresh money in the financial markets: €160 billion.

The point here is to spend a lot on public goodies to get the voters happy and ready to support those in place. It´s short term politics against long term liabilities.

US and the EU

We have to get used and draw the consequences but the fact of the matter is that today´s US public opinion is less interested in European matters. Europe has lost space in the American political agenda.

My very best wishes

In my part of Europe, a region that has Brussels at the centre, about 60% of the citizens see 2017 with some apprehension. This disquiet results from a combination of different factors, including the unresolved issues related to mass migrations, domestic and international security, the uncertainty that comes out of the US presidential elections, and the perceived lack of leadership in some of our key European countries and the impact that might have on the future of the EU. Brexit, interestingly, is not at this stage considered as a major problem.

Nonetheless, the majority of the people are still very much in favour of the EU. It is important to sustain such support. And that responsibility should lie mainly in the hands of the national leaders. They should stop the practice of blaming the Brussels institutions or the European Central Bank for their domestic difficulties. We ought to be firm on this and openly criticise those who keep doing it in 2017. They are not the kind of politicians we need now.

This is a time to be positive. And fight for a stronger, clear-cut political New Year.

To say thank you to Ban Ki-moon

Ban Ki-moon has left the UN Secretariat building today, at the end of his second mandate.

He spent the last ten years at the UN helm. I worked directly under him during a few years and can´t let him go without saying that he has always tried to do his best as Secretary-General.

People have criticised his low profile style, his communication skills, and his indecision in some critical moments, and so on. But they have forgotten he comes from a very different cultural and civilizational background, one that is more inclined to pursue dialogue and harmony instead of our Western way that puts a premium on personal confrontation. And many have also been blind to his tremendous efforts on climate change, on improving the work of the Security Council, on gender, the protection of civilians, and on enhancing the coordination with the regional organisations, such as the African Union, the EU and NATO. He has managed to keep the bridges open with the key members of the UN Security Council and that´s in itself a major achievement.

We should be mindful to the fact that the UN is an extremely complex organisation. It is the meeting point of all the national interests as the member States perceive them. The Secretary-General is caught in that dense web of narrow interests. He has immense authority, it is true, but it is also seen by the States as their top international civil servant. That´s not a very easy position.

I think it is fair to say goodbye to Ban Ki-moon on a positive note.

Syria´s broken deals

The rumours about the Syria´s talks sponsored by Russia are in the air. Turkey and Iran would also be god fathering the process.

One of questions – and there are many difficult ones – concerns the price Russia will have to pay to get Turkey on its side, in particular when it comes to accepting Assad´s continuation as head of State for a few more years.

My impression is that such price is related to the future of the Syrian Kurdish militia YPG. To get Erdogan on its side, Putin might have agreed to start attacking the YPG forces one off these days. The pretext would be that the Kurds are not part of the peace deal and should therefore be considered as terrorists. That Russian move would respond to a major strategic goal for the Turks: to prevent the Kurds from establishing any stronghold in Syria.

But all this is heavy on wishful thinking. The complexity of the situation on the ground is such that a deal like the one being prepared by this trio is far from being done. Particularly because it is not an inclusive one as it excludes not only the Kurds but others. And also because Assad is now convinced he can achieve a military solution. 

Holidays and the change that is coming

Christmas 2016 is about to happen. It is therefore time to close this shop for a few days and enjoy the family.

But before closing for the holidays, I spent a bit of time thinking about the role of the elites as we get closer to the New Year and all the changes it will bring, in the US, in the UN, and also in some parts of the EU, in particular those more affected by the Brexit discussions, the nationalism extreme and the related immigration issues, security challenges, and by complex electoral processes. Elites will have to be very clear in their communication endeavours, very sensitive to the difficulties and anxiety many people face, and also very responsible when talking about the way forward. The interaction between the elites and the ordinary citizen will be a major issue as we get back from the holidays and start confronting the world of 2017.

The New Year this time will bring a real change.

In the meantime, let´s enjoy the break. Happy holidays, then.

On domestic security matters

The concept of “war against terrorism” is not appropriate for our European societies. We are not at war. We have a very serious challenge in terms of domestic security. But it is a security issue to be dealt with by the police and the internal intelligence services. War would mean a major disruption of normalcy. We want to keep the same routines and be convinced that the security services are indeed equipped to match the challenge. They might of course be supported by the armed forces. But that support has to be much smarter than just placing a few soldiers in shopping malls and other public spaces. The politicians need to understand that the military can do much better things than just standing out there.