Brexit: time to approve the deal

Brexit, again! At this stage, I see no strong reason for the EU leaders to accept a short time extension of Article 50. The legal exit date is 29 March. An extension can only be granted if it is grounded on a well-defined reason. Seen from Brussels, the best reason would be to give time to the British institutions to approve the additional legislation that would regulate the different aspects of an orderly exit. That would basically mean the exit deal should be passed by the UK Parliament before 29 March. If that is not the case, the Brexit matter should be put to a new popular vote. And then the choice would be between the deal, as signed off by the Prime Minister, or no Brexit. The No Deal option is too catastrophic. It should not be in the ballot paper.

The scheduling of a new referendum – the popular vote mentioned above – would be the only reasonable justification for the EU heads to accept an extension.

However, I do not see much of a chance for a new people’s vote on Brexit. The political conditions are not there. The new approach by the Labour party in favour of a referendum comes too late to be of any value.

Thus, the realistic option is to fight for a yes vote in Westminster. That would approve the existing draft deal. With maybe one or two appended sentences, that would give the tough MPs within Theresa May’s party an excuse to change their opinion and vote for it. However, such approval must happen in the next two weeks. It’s late in the day, but still within a manageable time frame. Beyond that period, if there is no clarification, one can only expect a much higher level of confusion, including within the Conservative party. And a serious impact on the daily lives of many.  

A bad day for President Trump

Michael Cohen’s most amazing testimony before Congress has completely obfuscated the Hanoi Summit. That’s something President Donald Trump will not forget. But there are many other revelations in Cohen’s evidence that will remain for very long in the President’s mind.

The problem is that they have also caught the attention of Robert Mueller and other prosecutors, in addition to the members of Congress. As such, we can expect very turbulent days ahead for the US President.

It’s true that many will try to dismiss the accusations by saying that Cohen is not credible and that all this is about partisanship politics. Fine, it might work. However, these Cohen facts and stories are very serious allegations. They can be politically fought, certainly defeated. And I do not know how the legal people will act on them. But I am certain that the history will not be kind when judging the current President. And for someone like Donald Trump, the image that will remain in the books is a critical issue. Today, I am sure he is a very unhappy man, notwithstanding the symbolic hugs he got from Kim Jong-Un.

EU and Arab Nations: lots to discuss

The European Union (still 28 States at the time of the meeting..) and the Arab League (22 States) first-ever summit has just taken place in Egypt. The joint statement can be read at:

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2019/02/25/sharm-el-sheikh-summit-declaration/

Hanoi or Venezuela: better, Hanoi!

For the US leadership, all the attention must be focused on the Hanoi summit. The meeting between President Trump and Chairman Kim is the week’s highlight. It must be seen and reported as excellent. Venezuela cannot be a distraction. There will be some diplomatic tightening, some additional isolation of Nicolas Maduro, a couple or so of rambunctious statements and sound bites, but nothing else. Nothing that could steal the headlines from Donald Trump in Hanoi.

Unless the Hanoi meeting goes wrong. It’s not expected, it has been prepared with great attention to sound good. But we never know. It could derail. Then, the usual suspects will be looking for a distraction, for other news that could grab the world’s attention. And that kind of news could be some foolish action regarding the situation in Venezuela.

The Venezuela plan

All the signs seem to indicate that there is a plan to deal with Maduro and the power struggle in Venezuela. That plan can only come from people that have a lot of experience with scene setting and related strategic moves. Where do we find such people? And, second question, how legitimate is such a plan? And, final key question: can it work in a political environment like the one we presently have in Venezuela?

Let’s see what the next few days bring in our direction. And at what cost.

Brexit means transformation

The Brexit crisis is creating the conditions for a new partisan alignment in the UK. Brexit is a major political earthquake. Therefore, it can seriously transform the British party landscape, something that has not happened for generations.  

Venezuela today: deeper into crisis

The complex crisis Venezuela is going through today has reached a new level of perilousness. Taking into consideration what I have seen in comparable situations – comparable, true, but I know that every crisis has its unique features – we are now closer to an open clash between the two camps.

It is obvious we do not know what is going on in the planning rooms, and what kind of bridging initiatives might be under way. The impression is that there has been a lot of secret planning and no real effort to bridge the opposing parties. It is also palpable that both sides might still be betting on an escalation. They seem to have reached that stage in a confrontation when leaders think that it is time to defeat the other side. To use force. 

That’s why it is now important to express extreme apprehension and add to that a call for mediation by those who are still able to play such a role. An urgent call.

Our neighbour, Vladimir Putin

Again, on defence, it’s clear to us in the EU that one of the key military objectives of Russia is to look stronger than they really are. That’s why they spend so much human and capital resources on mixing facts and fiction. Part of their strength is indeed a fact. On the other side, a good deal of it is just a story that is being told to scare us. It is the Potemkin Village approach. It has a long history in Russia. But it produces results.

The Russian armed forces are ten years ahead of us, in the EU, in terms of cyber warfare. That’s for sure a reality. The rest, it is yes and no. But the truth is that they keep compelling us to increase our spending in military matters. In this kind of game, we cannot take risks. We better be prepared.

Fake, constructed or true, the fact of the matter is that the threats coming from Vladimir Putin must be taken seriously. And he knows that. Smart fellow, he is. And we, in many ways, look like amateurs. Just kicking the ball when it comes in  our direction.

EU's collective defence

The issue of collective defence is again a major concern for many European countries. It has to take into account a good number of major new developments. A more assertive Russia. A new level of foreign policy coordination between Russia and China, a policy that is clearly in competition with the Western interests and approaches. The fake news, the political interference and the funding of populist and far-right radical movements. The growing political gap and related tensions between Europe and Turkey. The situation in the Middle East and the Northern part of Africa. Terrorism. The US unprecedented new official policy towards defence cooperation with Europe. And the very hesitant, ambiguous views of the citizens regarding military expenditures.

And I would add one more, that is often left aside: the inept political direction provided by the EU leaders, particularly when it comes to articulating defence and security, military forces, intelligence and police services.

Politics equals manipulation

In the end, politics is about the manipulation of impetuous passion for the sake of power and control. It is a tough act and not a very transparent or clean one.