Lessons from Afghanistan

This last day of 2014 marks the end of ISAF, the international military mission in Afghanistan. The coalition of combat forces, the largest alliance of states for military purposes in recent history, has been on the ground for 13 years. Throughout this very long intervention, the human and financial costs were immense. Many raise questions. Was it worth the investment, the sacrifices of so many? Was it the best approach to bring together a deeply divided country which had become a breeding nest for violent extremism and negative model of retrograde approaches to life in society? Is the current situation that is left in the hands of the national authorities sustainable? Are we safer at present?

Many thesis will be written about the international assistance to Afghanistan. But beyond the academic papers, the model applied in Afghanistan will also challenge the way we see peace enforcement, international military assistance, and the relations between key international organisations, nation building and national leadership issues. The concept of comprehensive response will also have to be revised. It should include, a few other dimensions, the regional response. Afghanistan is just the inner circle of much larger storm that includes the neighbouring countries. Any military response within the smaller circle can only be effective and sustainable if it goes beyond that circle and brings together a much wider and multifaceted political response.

Beyond these substantive and wide-ranging issues, the points today, at the end of 2014, are to remember all those who have fallen during the many years past and to wish the people of that country and its region a more peaceful 2015. They dramatically need that type of hope.

Sweden´s political agreement is an excellent example for others

The political agreement reached in Sweden by the mainstream parties deserves a special reference. It brings stability to the country´s governance, without weakening each party´s identity and electoral ambitions, and sends the nationalist extremists to a corner of the political scene. It shows a very high degree of political maturity on both sides, the centre-left and the centre-right. And it based on a long-term commitment to continuity of policies in key areas of sovereignty, such as defence and foreign affairs.

It is, in many ways, a piece of good news in Europe, at the end of the year. It could become an example for other EU countries, such as France, where there is a serious risk of seeing the right wing extremists in power in the near future. The moderate leaders should learn from the Swedish case that there is a time, meaning when the risks are higher and the economic situation is precarious, that national unity against fascists and extremists should be the top priority for the centre parties, left and right. 2015 should, in many aspects, be a year dedicated at stopping the radicals in Europe. 

Greece at the margins of Europe

Greece is again in the news. But this time, it´s no longer a headline. It is still front page news, of course. But barely, at the bottom of the front page. However, for some papers, like Le Monde, is not even there, but lost in some less prominent corner of the newspaper.

Also, Greece is no longer very big news for the markets. Besides the Greek stock exchange and the Portuguese one as well, because Portugal´s bourse is very fragile and very sensitive to bad news coming from countries that could be considered comparable, all the other financial indexes have shown indifference to the developments in Athens

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Basically, the signs are very clear: the Greek politics are essentially a domestic matter. The voters will decide and will leave with the consequences of their decision. There is also the conviction that Syriza, the extreme left coalition, will not be able to put together enough votes to form a government. That might lead to a long period of impasse, with the country being administered by a caretaker government. Again, that seems to leave many in Europe indifferent.

Geopolitics and crisis management have placed Greece back at the periphery of Europe. This will bring some changes, for sure. 

Snowing in Brussels

Snow has arrived in Brussels today. White powder in the city is always a mess. But it is nice to see the falling of the snow. It´s winter, we need a taste of winter. My friends from Scandinavia who live in and around Brussels have been very nostalgic about the lack of snow thus far. Today, they certainly feel better and happier. The only concern is that they are all out and back in Scandinavia for the festive break. And there I am sure they have plenty of it. We will keep the little we got today for another few hours, I think. 

UN is lost in Sudan

Sudan, with President Omar al-Bashir as head of State, has been for many years a major challenge to the credibility of the United Nations. There have been a succession of clash matters, from the situation in South Sudan, to Darfur, the arrest warrant against the President by the International Criminal Court, the many obstacles raised by the authorities against the UN activities in the country, including the peacekeeping mission in Darfur, and so on and so on.

The fact of the matter is that the Khartoum government under the leadership of al-Bashir is hostile to the UN presence in the country. And, on the other side of the coin, the UN has not been particularly good at defining a strategic approach to the country´s leaders. This has a major impact on UN´s credibility, particularly in the area of peace operations.

Now, the UN Development Programme top officials in the country – the Resident Coordinator and the Country Director – have just been expelled by the government, under the direct authority of al-Bashir. They will leave the country after the week end. And once again New York has been weak and tentative in its response.

This year´s heroes

In her Christmas address of today, Queen Elizabeth II said some very good words about all those who are engaged in the fight against Ebola in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea. They are for sure the heroes of the year. They might not have a well-known name, their pictures might not be printed in every paper, and they might even not be paid on time or not paid at all, in some cases. But their example is very visible. It knocks on our conscience every day to remind us that in the end what matters is to be of service to others, to be committed and also be just one of many nice people. 

Happy Days

Time to wish every one of my readers a very happy Festive Season and a New Year full of great and pleasant surprises. 

Good news from Tunisia

The news from Tunisia is good. The electoral process has been credible. And for us, from our corner of the world, that´s what matters. This is an Arab revolution that has remained democratic and moderate. The rest, the outcome of the elections is a matter that belongs to the Tunisians. They have decided. And I trust the decision is certainly the wiser one, taking into account what was on offer.  

Africa and Europe

I have been asked to think about Africa´s challenges in 2015.

The question is too ambitious. It´s again based on a very common misunderstanding we find in our part of the world: to believe that Africa can be seen as a single entity.

But it is also a good opportunity to keep the African issues on the European agenda. We are in a deeply interlinked world. And Europe´s future is also very much related to developments in Africa. That´s actually the key message I wish to put across. 

Obama and Castro

I am telling my friends I fully support the approach President Obama has just adopted concerning Cuba.

It is time, indeed, to look at the relations with that country with the eyes of today and not with the perspective that has shaped our past.

It is easier to change the situation if we engage. Presence is influence. Presence is a launching pad to support change. And the people of Cuba are eager to see change in their country. Raul Castro understands it but he is constrained by his own personal history, his political relationships and the power base that keeps him at the head of the Party. But even he keeps stating the old things he is at the same time creating the conditions for a more democratic and more prosperous Cuba. We should be able to understand that. 

War by other means

The traditional approach to war between developed nations has now changed. We still have armies and defence institutions. They will continue to play the key role they are supposed to play: deterrence. They should therefore be fully supported. But besides dissuasion, they are of little practical use. Today, the economic and financial instruments of power play a much more effective role, if they are properly employed and if the political resolve is indeed in place. Financial measures can easily destroy value in the opponent´s camp and generate enough force for a negotiation process to start. That´s a new way of confronting the adversary. And it can be done openly – no need for deception and covert operations. Actually, it should be carried out with sufficient rhetoric. That would make sure the other side understands what´s at play and realises how important it is to yield. 

Leaders and demagogues

Just back from two days in Geneva. I was there to lead a workshop on peace building and crisis response and to deliver a lecture on responding to new types of conflicts. The audience was composed of mid-career professionals, both from the military and the civilian areas. They are in Geneva for an advance masters on peace studies but come from different corners of the world. Some of them will be, later in their professional life, important players in their own countries. They know that. And then, I shouldn't be surprised that several of the questions they raised to my attention were about leadership issues. The role of leaders, how to deal with rogue leaders, how to get leaders to lead.

Leadership in politics is indeed a very current topic. There are many that believe that leaders are not taking up their responsibilities. They are just chambers of resonance for the public opinion. And that´s not leadership. That´s demagogy. 

Getting closer to trouble

I am not a pessimist. I have actually no personal reason to be one. But as I look into the year that is about to start I get worried. There are a number of major geopolitical risks in the air. And the world economy is also closer to a new serious slowdown. In addition, in our part of the world people see their standard of living being threatened by new austerity measures, more taxes and poor availability of job opportunities. There is also a growing nationalistic sentiment in different corners of old Europe.

These are times of great challenges. They require courageous leaders. And we seem to be short of them as well. That´s what worries me most. 

Getting closer to 2015

In my regular opinion piece for the Portuguese weekly magazine Visão, a text I wrote this afternoon, I share my view that 2015 will be a year of great uncertainty.  The geopolitical tensions are on the increase. This time they involve major players, such as Russia, China, Japan and the US. This is no small fry. Furthermore, the economic and financial variables are more and more unpredictable. The oil price and its impact on the international financial flows as well as on the stability of countries such as Venezuela, Russia, Angola and Nigeria, and the entire Middle East, the diminished availability of cash for stocks and bonds, the trade restrictions as a result of political confrontations, the unemployment rates and the low paid jobs because of automation, and the dwindling of the middle classes in Europe and elsewhere, all these dimensions will bring new variables into a very complex economic equation. If you put on top of that activities of the international crime syndicates, and the mass immigration of young people, you are adding fuel to the fire.

That´s why we have to make the coming year a time of deep reflection about the common future of mankind. It´s time to think about the big picture again. 

Europe is heading towards nasty social confrontations

Europe´s cost of living is too high. In addition, the tax systems are too heavy. For many families the money is not just enough. And that explains, in many ways, why we have more and more nasty general strikes and street protests in countries that have been traditionally quiet. When the income is short, compared to the costs of living a basic life, any cut on salaries, pensions, subsidies or allocations makes a big difference. The problem is that we should expect more income reductions and therefore additional social conflicts. 

Human rights are the starting point for a better life

I am not sure North Korea celebrates Human Rights Day, as we do today.

And I am pleased that this year the day comes just after the publication of the report on CIA´s torture cases. That reminds us that human rights is a never-ending struggle, even in the old democracies of the West. Actually, my long trek over the world has made it clear that human rights issues, be them related to police brutality, violence against women or children´s slavery, or the freedom of speech for every individual, are the most critical issue people aspire for. A man or a woman might be poor. But he or she wants to be respected and given the space to take care of him or herself. That´s the true essence of life. Respect for each individual. And that´s a good starting point to encourage people to move out of poverty and despair. 

Hollande and Putin: a good move

President François Hollande´s stop in Moscow to meet President Vladimir Putin was certainly a smart diplomatic move. In international affairs, when there is a crisis, dialogue and personal, eye-to-eye contact are much better options than public statements and speeches.

You might ask what has come out of today´s meeting. Well, the answer is very simple: a clear message that the West considers that the partnership with Russia is critically important for both sides. Such a message should also keep the lines open. And we must have good quality lines to be able to engage in a productive conversation. Clarity comes out of exchanges of views.

It also comes out of lengthy meetings. In today´s case, two hours of discussions when only one hour was scheduled says a lot about the complexity of the dialogue that is needed. 

Reporting on war and weapons

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has just published its annual report, a flagship compilation of data and analysis about last year´s wars, military expenditures and weapons production and trade. It is an excellent reference document.

Unfortunately, it also shows that the world is indeed a dangerous place. And that international security remains a major concern in the field of international relations.

The UN and the regional organizations continue to play major roles in peace and security, notwithstanding their own contradictions and other shortcomings. The truth of the matter is that without them, the world would be even more insecure. It is also true that the cooperation between all these international organisations could be stronger and more effective. That remains a priority for the future. 

Putin´s paranoia and the people´s feelings about the West

President Putin´s speech on state of the Russian nation is pure Cold War vintage. The old ghosts are back in his words and his vision of the West´s relations with his country. He sees conspiracies against Russia in every move and every fact that happens in our part of the world. It´s pitiful view of a relationship that should be based on trust and cooperation instead of suspicion and blind competition. The only possible outcome of such a policy is further underdevelopment of the Russian society, both at the institutional and economic levels. And to aggravate things further, 72% of the Russian voters think the President´s approach is right. Putin´s narrative is synchronised with the people´s feelings of a nation that is great but that has never been appreciated by the West. These feelings and the narrative are difficult to change because there is very little room in the nation for those who would like to express a different view of things.

Russia´s is moving fast to become a major disaster at the footsteps of Europe. And that is for sure a matter that is of great concern for all of us in Europe.  

A clear policy declaration on Ukraine´s situation

Today´s statement by the NATO Foreign Ministers about the situation in Ukraine is a strong and clearly-worded policy position. It should be read with due care. I am sure that will be the case in Moscow. 

EU mission in Ukraine

The EU has initiated the deployment of an assistance mission to Ukraine to support the civilian dimensions of security sector reform: police, prosecution, justice, penal system. This will a large deployment for an initial period of two years.

It is certainly a good move. It should contribute to bring the civilian security system up to more acceptable standards. But the mission will face very serious obstacles within the Ukrainian security establishment. The officers, at every level, are used to practices that come from the old authoritarian times. That´s their level of comfort, their culture in dealing with the citizens. In addition, there is a lot of corruption built in the system. And corruption is a source of income in a country that is in serious economic difficulties and pays very low salaries.

With these difficulties in mind it will be important to closely monitor how the EU mission will respond to these challenges.

It will also be necessary to watch the performance of the mission leadership.