Syria's opposition is too divided

The extreme fragmentation of the Syrian opposition has become their most critical weakness.  Just in the area next to the Golan Heights, a very small part of the territory, there are about nine independent armed groups, if we can believe a generally well-informed intelligence service operating in the neighbourhood. In this circumstance, it is quite clear that it is not in the interest of the Assad regime to negotiate with the rebels. The regime believes they can gradually crush each armed group, one by one, as they did today in the strategically important city of Al-Qusayr. Therefore, the official doctrine in Damascus is to bet on a military solution. What is the Western response to this? And the Security Council's?

Portuguese politics

An opinion poll released this morning shows that 22% of the Portuguese voters would vote for the Communists and the leftist party called Boco de Esquerda. It is indeed the radical left that would take greater advantage of the social malaise that defines the country's current political situation.

The Socialists, a centre-left party, would however be the election winner, with 32.7% of the votes. But this result is not good enough and would call for a coalition with a smaller party. The most likely candidate would be the centre-right CDS, which represents 9.5% of the electorate.

Well, CDS is at present in government as a junior partner in a conservative coalition. One can expect the Socialists to take all kinds of initiatives to poison the existing coalition and provoke fresh elections as soon as possible. If they do not manage to bring the existing government down they will have to wait until 2015, when new elections are due. That’s a very long period for those who think they can get to power right away. 

Turkey on the streets

It is too early to be able to read the sense of the mass protests that are taking place in Istanbul, Ankara, and other cities of Turkey.

To call these demonstrations a “Turkish Spring” would be to ignore that the situation in Turkey is not comparable to those prevailing in North Africa and some parts of the Middle East. The country is a democracy. One might disagree with the political philosophy that inspires Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his party, but one has to recognise that he has won the vote and has, in many ways, changed the country for the better.

However, Erdogan has to listen to facts and to the people on the streets. Turkey is not prepared for a more religious kind of approach to political life. And the Prime Minister should also understand that an electoral victory is not a licence to brush aside the opposing views. He won his fight against the military establishment, in some cases through very unorthodox and questionable means. But he cannot win against the people. 

UN cannot be silent about Syria

When it comes to the Syrian crisis, it is sad to note that the UN has lost the initiative. Even statements by top level UN officials about the dramatic situation the country is living have disappeared from the radar screen.

Some of us are afraid that one or two big nations might have sent a message to the UN Secretariat, something along the line: “Keep off!”

The UN cannot keep off a profound national crisis such as the Syrian one. It cannot. The human costs are too high. And the political risks for peace in the region are too many. Today more than ever. 

Afghanistan: more coherence within the international community

One of my friends called my attention to the recent attacks against international organisations in Afghanistan. In both cases –International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) – the Taliban targeted organisations that had signed a memorandum of understanding with the NATO-led force ISAF.

This coincidence sounds very much like a message being sent by the extremists. The message back should then be very clear: it should be about a greater degree of coherence and unity within the international community, around a shared political agenda. That’s actual the only way forward in Afghanistan. Now and after 2014. 

France and Mali

France is placing undue pressure on the UN Secretariat regarding the deployment of peacekeepers to the recently approved mission in Mali. It shows very little respect for the UN’s independence when it comes to the selection of the Troop Contributing Countries. For instance, the French want the Chadians to be part of the UN force at any cost, even if N’Djaména does not meet some of the criteria. This is creating, once again, an anti-French wave within the UN Headquarters. Such malaise is being aptly used by some older hands at DPKO and in other departments, who never miss an opportunity to attack the French. 

Peacekeeping by the UN

We celebrate today the International Day of United Nations Peacekeepers. This is a core UN function and one of best known signatures of the UN.

As a former UN Peacekeeper, my wish on the occasion of this year’s commemoration is to see a greater deployment of EU troops and Police to peacekeeping operations led by the UN.

A view of Chechnya

I participated in a discussion about financing development co-operation this morning. Friends of Europe, an NGO close to the European Commission, sponsored the discussion.

As it is often the case, these discussions are too ambitious in terms of the scope and the number of speakers and too light when it comes to depth and substance. The organisers tend to invite a large number of panellists. That leaves little time for each one of them and even less for an exchange with the participants. It would be much better to have just a couple of keynote speakers, who could then speak extensively about their ideas and experience.

I ended up talking to the fellow seated next to me. I found out he has been in Belgium for about ten years, after fleeing civil conflict in Chechnya. And also that he and his community feel much stressed after the events of Boston.  Many people look at them now as potential terrorists. There is suspicion in the air. And all over the place the secret polices have decided to spend a bit of their free time monitoring these refugees. It is, he told me, as if they had found a pretty good reason to keep themselves busy.

Well, image is everything, as some people like to say. But image can be deeply unfair. 

Supporting international operations

I spent the last couple of days in Lisbon. I had been invited to go back to Portugal to deliver a lecture about the logistics of aid projects at the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation.

I ended up by focussing the audience’s attention on the support required by emergency operations, large-scale humanitarian assistance and peacekeeping. These are the civilian areas where logistics are major challenges. Aid projects are now more and more focussed on soft matters, like good governance, and they call for little logistical support.

And I also told them that a good logistician needs to develop a rhinoceros hide. A very deep skin indeed. My experience has shown that when everything is going smoothly, nobody says that the chief logistician is an excellent professional. As soon as something goes wrong, like a generator that stops abruptly or the fuel that runs low, everyone starts blaming the incompetence of the logistics fellows. 

Dilma in Africa

Dilma Roussef, the President of Brazil, is back in Africa, to attend the AU Summit. This is her third visit to the Continent this year.

Brazil, which is ranked the seventh economy in the world, has understood that a stronger footing in Africa is good for its long term interests. More and more Brazilian corporations are looking for new investment opportunities in Africa, particularly in minerals and other natural resources. In many ways, Brazil sees itself competing with fellow BRICS countries –China and South Africa –, which are also deeply keen to expand their economic ties with many African states.

During her current visit, Dilma announced that Brazil will cancel or restructure almost $900m worth of debt with Africa. This is a wise decision, with a wide political impact, and little financial costs for an economy as big as the Brazilian. It serves her country’s interests well and helps the 12 African countries concerned.