Be clear about your priorities

The EU and the P5 – the five permanent countries in the Security Council of the UN – took long to recognize the strategic importance of the Sahel and Mali, specifically, for international peace and security.

They finally started looking at it as a priority geopolitical zone of major importance for the stability of a very wide area, North and South of the Sahara, including the EU states.

Now, the challenge is to keep the external partners focused on the region.

This was my key message at last week´s meeting of the 5 plus 5 Initiative, which brings together the Defence Ministers from Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Malta with those from the Southern bank of the Mediterranean Sea, meaning Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and also Mauritania. 

To ignore the threats has also a cost

We keep talking about the cost of each peacekeeping operation, the funds required by proactive diplomacy and crisis prevention, the expenses related to military deployments in far-flung lands, etc.

But we never ask the other question: what would be the cost of inaction, what would be the financial, economic and human costs if we decide to remain out and passive?

There is indeed a cost if we help. However, sometimes that cost is just much smaller than the consequences of deciding to ignore.

This is certainly one example of a question that we have to start raising. 

Libya as a top prority for the French in 2014

The French Foreign Minister, Laurent Fabius, stated yesterday in Monaco, at the World Policy Conference annual meeting, that Libya will be his country´s political priority for 2014 in the international arena.

This is a good choice. Libya is in a big mess and needs strong support to be able to re-establish law and order and control the many armed groups that are scattered throughout the country. If this happens it will have a very positive impact on the domestic democratization process as well as on the Sahel and North Africa regions.

The demise of Kaddafi open many Pandora boxes. It created major threats to peace and stability. It is now time to bring the genies back into their bottles and firmly lock them inside.

My hope is that France would be able to bring other countries on board in an alliance to re-build Libya. It is not easy, as EU states are more divided than ever and can´t agree on a common approach on North Africa. But within the EU there are enough governments that would accept that the Southern bank of the Mediterranean Sea is indeed a priority matter. 

EU needs to have a firmer approach towards Qatar and Saudi Arabia

The EU, and in particular the High Representative for Foreign Affairs, should spend more time engaging the North African countries on common security concerns. She should also actively engage the Saudis and the Qataris. Both have a lot of influence in North Africa and the neighbouring countries. And that influence is sometimes used to promote objectives and doctrine that play against stability in the region and have a direct impact of supporting radical views.

This type of proactive diplomatic action would achieve much greater results, if done in strategic way and from a firm position, than any EU military or police operation. Qatar and Saudi Arabia should be made to understand that they cannot play the fundamentalist card in the backyard of Europe.

We need to strategically engage with Algeria

EU has not paid enough attention to Algeria. Or, this country remains a key player in North Africa and has a critical influence on the Sahel and on the fight against radical armed groups. Furthermore, Algeria is pivotal if we want to promote greater cooperation in North Africa as well as a stronger partnership between the region and Southern Europe.

I very much advocate for a serious debate about engaging Algeria. That would clarify the lines of engagement between us and that country. And it would also make it clear that such link is important for our common interests. 

Reconciliation in Mali

On the day of Nelson Mandela Memorial, I found myself writing a few notes about reconciliation in a post-crisis political process. The point was to look at Mali’s situation and try to make some recommendations.

I thought of Mandela, and started by saying that enlightened leadership at the top level of national authority is fundamental. Then I added that that the other levels of political responsibility need to change their approaches towards the minorities as well and adapt a fair attitude that invites inclusiveness. Finally, we need to put in place mechanisms of appeasement at the community level, between neighbours, ethnic groups, local people. On a daily base, that´s where the proof of the pudding takes place. At the grassroots level.

Is all this happening at present in Mali?

My answer is very simple: I am afraid not.  

EU and Russia: the winter of a relationship

The political relations between the EU and Russia are going through a low point. And my advice is very simple: this is no time to make waves. Let the sleeping dog lie. This should be, on our side, the inspiring line for the next few months. Keep the engagement but keep it low intensity. Let´s be patient and distant.

However this should not prevent our side from working on a strategy for the future. Quietly, but firmly and with the right vision. 

Central Africa and the Sahel

I spent a bit of the day on the news and comments being produced about the dramatic events in the Central African Republic (CAR). And I end up the day very much amazed by the little knowledge people seem to have about the root causes of the current crisis. Then, I wonder how can the external players contribute to a finding a solution to a problem they do not fully understand?

I served in CAR from 1985 to 1989. Then, I came back in 2008 up to 2010, to be deeply involved with the unfolding events.

I vividly remember my discussions with President Bozizé. Including about the role of Muslim armed groups operating in the border areas with Darfur and South-Eastern Chad. And the growing tensions with pastoralists coming from the Sahel. CAR had obviously changed in its social set-up between my first and second stay in the region. And that change was not only a warning of the crisis in the making. It was, in many ways, one of vectors of much deeper and multifaceted transformation that is being imported from the arid lands of the North and moving into the Bantu areas of central tropical Africa. 

Madiba and the building of Africa´s self-confidence

Nelson Mandela achieved many great things. But there is one that is not fully understood by us in the Western world.

He gave the African people, men and women, self-confidence. People throughout Africa looked at Madiba, gained poise and dignity. Said differently, as they became aware of his example, they could finally believe that Africans can make it, transform their lives and critically contribute to changing the world for the better. 

Nelson Mandela

Nelson Mandela passed away this evening. He was an extraordinary man. A striking example of the often quoted statement: leadership matters and a great leader makes a historical difference.

Sometimes, when I thought and wrote about him, I was afraid that many of us are too small to fully grasp the amazing person Mandela was.

History has a very short and selective memory. But the history of our times will not forget Nelson Mandela.