Italy´s promising presidency of the EU

The Italian presidency, this semester, of the EU might bring in a new debate about economic growth, fiscal responsibility and the role of national governments vis-a-vis the Brussels institutions.

Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is a young politician. He brings a bit of courage and fresh air to EU politics. We might disagree with some of his positions but we should recognise that his interventions are forcing the German politicians and other leaders from the North to engage in a dialogue that had been missing for a long while.

EU has a lot to gain from a proper exchange of contradictory but well formulated views. Political diversity is good for Europe. 

Insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea

I have been asked to look at the security challenges in the Gulf of Guinea. There will be an international meeting on the subject in Lisbon on 11 July. States from the region, and partner nations from the EU and elsewhere, including Brazil and the US, are supposed to attend.

The meeting comes out of a growing concern about the security challenges facing Coastal West Africa, as the next expansion area of a crisis that has shaped the Sahel during the recent past. The sea lanes are along West Africa are vital for many interests, including the oil and fishing interests of European countries.

As I get deeper into the subject I come to old conclusions: poor governance in the region, extremely weak states, predatory elites, inadequate cooperation policies on the side of rich countries, widespread disrespect for human rights, all that play a role and seriously contribute to a complex situation that could easily get out of hand in the future. 

Poor leadership

In the last days, in different meetings, I was told twice by senior officers and seasoned civil servants that the current crop of Western leaders do not listen to advice. They tend to have pre-conceived responses to key issues and therefore opt for directing their subordinates, without listening their views, without taking into account their experience. This creates a lot of frustration in the senior levels of the public service. It is also a contributing factor to the poor commitment we find in many civil administrations. 

UK on the way out of the EU

I am getting the impression that in Brussels many think that the UK´s exit from the EU is just a matter of time. Prime Minister Cameron has opened a Pandora box. He and the rest of the existing political leadership seem too weak, too uncharismatic to be able to stop the slide in the public opinion. It will be an uphill struggle to change the trend. The genie will not jump back into the bottle.  

Ukraine´s window of opportunity is now

I sense there is a little but encouraging window of opportunity to find a solution to the crisis in Ukraine. Tomorrow´s meetings in Vienna, where President Putin has arrived today, could offer a chance for a peace road map. I think that the Swiss have been particularly active in trying to bring Putin and the other parties together, including the new Head of State of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko. The Swiss Confederation President, Didier Burkhalter, has also travelled to Vienna this morning. His discussions with the Russian leader tomorrow are something that should be carefully watched. 

Iraq and the great divide

The Iraqi crisis reminds us of how difficult it is to assist a country that is deeply divided along ethnic and cultural lines. The fracture line between Sunnis and Shias cuts the country in two. This is a very high risk divide. It needs to be managed with great balance. Leaders from both sides of the line have to be brought together all the time. Our role, as international community, is to encourage them to cooperate, to help them to build the platforms that bring their interests together, to underline the common ground and look into the future from there.

In many ways, the experience tells us that to intervene in countries that are at the frontier of great divides is not a very easy thing. The best solution is to stay out, as much as possible. If that is not advisable, then the international community must act in a very well informed way, with great prudence and a strong sense of the risks.

That´s true in Iraq as it is also true in Sudan, Mali or Chad, in the Balkans, or any other country that has national communities that are very different, both from a physical point of view and from a religious or cultural perspective. These are countries with a very high risk of falling into major internal conflicts. Outside interventions that are just naive and ill prepared can only accelerate the hatching of the crisis. 

Iraq: a very complex and grave situation

The gravity of the situation in Iraq cannot be underestimated. As one should not be blind to the very serious impact it can have in the entire region. President Obama´s approach, as outlined today, is a prudent one. It requires however a greater degree of coordination with the key States in the Middle East.
Unfortunately, it cannot be enhanced by any type of EU action as Europe has lost its capacity to play a critical military role in the region, particularly in the context of a very violent and complex crisis. 

No time to hesitate: ISIS needs to be crushed

Let´s agree that any move that helps to defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, also known as ISIS, is deeply appreciated. It should be taken without delay. But let´s also be clear that things have already gone too far and ISIS has taken too much power and influence. It has become more difficult to thrash them. They have gained a very serious impetus thanks to our inability to foresee and take quick action. And now the more we wait the more we will have to deal with them for a very long period of time. We should understand that there is no more space for hesitation. 

Kenya faces major security challenges

One of my colleagues at the UN, a man from a Nordic country, decided to retire by the Kenyan coast, not far from Mombasa. That decision was taken more than 10 years ago. The place was quiet and the weather much nicer than around the Baltic Sea. 

I thought of him and his wife today. The news coming from that part of Africa have not been good. And they have further deteriorated in the last couple of days. People have been massacred by extremists, others have been kidnapped. And above all, the national government seems too weak to be able to tackle the security challenges.

The dangerous situation shows once more that terrorism can spread fast if not properly contained. The chaos that prevails in Somalia, just to the North of Kenya, is a major menace to entire region. And of all the neighbouring countries, Kenya is the most exposed to the expansion of the Somali anarchy. 

An archipelago of collapsing States

There is now an “archipelago of collapse” that goes from Mali to Iraq, through Libya, Egypt and Syria. It´s like an oil slick that tends to expand South, through the Sahel and towards Central Africa, and also to keep moving to the East, to Afghanistan and Pakistan. These “archipelago of collapsing States” is about the failure of proper governance in each one of the countries concerned. But it is also, more and more, an indication that the international community, in particular the Security Council and other key international players, need to think again about their role. Their contribution to international human rights, peace, human security and stability is facing very serious challenges. It has to be thought through again. Intervention? What kind of intervention? How to prevent collapse? How to keep different communities together under the same national flag? What is the responsibility of the international community? What are the lessons learned in Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere?

This is a debate that is getting more and more urgent. But who is ready to take the lead in the discussion?