Brexit means transformation

The Brexit crisis is creating the conditions for a new partisan alignment in the UK. Brexit is a major political earthquake. Therefore, it can seriously transform the British party landscape, something that has not happened for generations.  

Venezuela today: deeper into crisis

The complex crisis Venezuela is going through today has reached a new level of perilousness. Taking into consideration what I have seen in comparable situations – comparable, true, but I know that every crisis has its unique features – we are now closer to an open clash between the two camps.

It is obvious we do not know what is going on in the planning rooms, and what kind of bridging initiatives might be under way. The impression is that there has been a lot of secret planning and no real effort to bridge the opposing parties. It is also palpable that both sides might still be betting on an escalation. They seem to have reached that stage in a confrontation when leaders think that it is time to defeat the other side. To use force. 

That’s why it is now important to express extreme apprehension and add to that a call for mediation by those who are still able to play such a role. An urgent call.

Our neighbour, Vladimir Putin

Again, on defence, it’s clear to us in the EU that one of the key military objectives of Russia is to look stronger than they really are. That’s why they spend so much human and capital resources on mixing facts and fiction. Part of their strength is indeed a fact. On the other side, a good deal of it is just a story that is being told to scare us. It is the Potemkin Village approach. It has a long history in Russia. But it produces results.

The Russian armed forces are ten years ahead of us, in the EU, in terms of cyber warfare. That’s for sure a reality. The rest, it is yes and no. But the truth is that they keep compelling us to increase our spending in military matters. In this kind of game, we cannot take risks. We better be prepared.

Fake, constructed or true, the fact of the matter is that the threats coming from Vladimir Putin must be taken seriously. And he knows that. Smart fellow, he is. And we, in many ways, look like amateurs. Just kicking the ball when it comes in  our direction.

EU's collective defence

The issue of collective defence is again a major concern for many European countries. It has to take into account a good number of major new developments. A more assertive Russia. A new level of foreign policy coordination between Russia and China, a policy that is clearly in competition with the Western interests and approaches. The fake news, the political interference and the funding of populist and far-right radical movements. The growing political gap and related tensions between Europe and Turkey. The situation in the Middle East and the Northern part of Africa. Terrorism. The US unprecedented new official policy towards defence cooperation with Europe. And the very hesitant, ambiguous views of the citizens regarding military expenditures.

And I would add one more, that is often left aside: the inept political direction provided by the EU leaders, particularly when it comes to articulating defence and security, military forces, intelligence and police services.

Politics equals manipulation

In the end, politics is about the manipulation of impetuous passion for the sake of power and control. It is a tough act and not a very transparent or clean one.

Keep the company of the eagles

From time to time, I remind myself that if I want to keep enjoying the company of the eagles, I must keep feeding them. And be sure I offer them the best pieces I can put together.

Undemocratic leadership

It’s a grave mistake to refer to autocrats as “illiberal leaders”. They are undemocratic political monsters that managed to get to positions of power because they manipulated their country’s public opinion and were able to ride on the most primary sentiments one can find in some nations that are experiencing deep crisis. The media and the academic circles must call those leaders what they are: demagogues, totalitarian, despot, or just dangerous populists.

No to a "post-human rights" society

In the context of this year’s Munich Security Conference, it has been said that we are living in a “post-human rights”.

In my opinion, that’s an unhelpful concept. It sends the wrong message. Human rights should remain the very basic and indispensable foundation of today’s politics. We might see all other conventions being challenged by different types of strongmen in power. That’s most worrisome. It’s as serious move towards the past. But, at least, human rights should remain as the last fortress, the last strong tower of values.

In the end, everything in politics and our daily lives is about respecting the dignity of everyone, man or woman, boy or girl. If we do not firmly stand for that, if we accept a “post-human rights” reality, even just as an intellectual frame of analysis, we can say goodbye to the moral and legal achievements and progress of the last 70 years or so. That’s not acceptable and it should not be taken as a “modern concept”.

Sahel and the Islamist threat

Another link on the Sahel security situation:

https://africacenter.org/spotlight/the-complex-and-growing-threat-of-militant-islamist-groups-in-the-sahel/

The Sahel is important

https://www.securityconference.de/en/media-library/munich-security-conference-2019/video/parallel-panel-discussion-security-in-the-sahel-traffick-jam/

The link will bring us to the panel discussion on the situation in the Sahel that took place today at the Munich Security Conference.