Deterrence and diplomacy

Someone told me today that the kind of threats Kim Jong-un has made in the past few days could justify a preventive strike against the regime in Pyongyang. My response was very clear: I do not think so. It would be indeed a mistake to take any preemptive military action against North Korea at this stage. Active deterrence through a clear joint show of force in the region combined with clear-cut diplomatic initiatives by China and Russia, and the UN Security Council as a whole, should be enough to send an unequivocal message to the young man. 

Congratulations to all Kenyans

Kenya’s presidential results have now been confirmed. And one should note the maturity shown this time by the political elite, particularly by Raila Odinga, who challenged the results through the courts and has now accepted the final verdict. This is a sea change compared with the tragic events that occurred after the last elections in 2007. It is another demonstration that many countries in Africa are moving in the right direction. 

Please tell Kim Jong-un the truth

Kim Jong-un is a young man. When he took over as leader of North Korea he had an opportunity to make history. He could have initiated a process that would bring the North and the South together. As a young fellow, with a long political future in front of him, this would have been the smart approach, as there is no other way out of the permanent crisis and poverty his country experiences.

He seems now to have missed the boat. For whatever reasons –lack of political sense of the realities, poor strategic advice, pressure from the regime elites, particularly from the military –he has opted for a very serious escalation of the war rhetoric. Some analysts claim this is the usual bluff, a recurrent feature in the Pyongyang politics. I am afraid it is more than that. He and his generals might have managed to be fooled by their own bombastic nonsense. They might have fallen victims of their own delusion.

The fact of the matter is that at present we have a very dangerous situation developing in the Korean Peninsula. If by any chance, Kim decides to launch any attack –in the understanding that he has no means to reach US territory –he and his regime could end up by paying a very high price for the folly.

I hope someone is getting ready to tell Kim Jong-un the truth.  Urgently. 

The African Ellipse of Instability

I was asked by the media a number of questions about the recent developments in the Central African Republic (CAR). I have advised them to read the research paper I published last year, under the sponsorship of NUPI – the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs –about the instability in that region of Africa. I mentioned, in particular, the “ellipse of instability”, an expression I coined to describe the security risks that exist in a vast no-man’s land along the borders of Chad, Sudan, CAR, South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The paper is available at the following link:

http://english.nupi.no/content/download/308614/1068211/version/1/file/NUPI+Report-SIP-7-Angelo-McGuinness.pdf

I suggest the reader to have a look at it.

EU silence

The EU top leaders have now adopted silence as public information technique. They let the sidekicks take the micro and express what they do not dare to say. 

South African casualties in the Central African Republic

In an exchange with a South African analyst, I mentioned that I was very sad and very surprised by the fact that the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) had lost 13 men out of 200 in the recent clashes with the Séléka rebels in the Central African Republic (CAR). That’s an awful lot of casualties. In particular, if one considers that on the other side, on the insurgent side, we had a ragtag bunch of armed men, poorly equipped, chaotically led and badly prepared to fight. I suggested that this SANDF loss needs to be properly reviewed by the authorities in Pretoria and a number of hard lessons extracted. 

The finance moralist is a failed politician

Jeroen Dijsselbloem might not know where Bangui is located. Most likely, he had also no idea up to recently where Nicosia is. But like the Séléka rebels in the Central African Republic, he managed today to create chaos and uncertainty. His interview with Reuters and the Financial Times shows that he has the same level of political tact and experience as the leaders of Séléka. And he managed to do what the CAR rebels are very good at: to divide what should be united. They split the country along ethnic lines, a tradition in that part of the world. Djisselbloem split Europe, separating the good people of the parsimonious North from the prodigal boys from the South. And undermining bank recovery in the lands of such bad boys.

Then, later in the day, maybe after a serious caning by Angela, the man said that his words about the Cyprus programme being a template for future financial crisis were not meant to mean what they indeed mean, as each country situation is a special case.

He is the one that could be considered a special case.

Maybe the UN – at a time when its presence in Bangui is being seriously challenged –should consider sending him as an envoy to CAR. The country is at least a safe place for the markets as there is no Reuters or Financial Times correspondent around. 

CAR and its rebels

François Bozizé, who has been the President of the Central African Republic (CAR) for the last ten years, has now fled out of the country. He just crossed the Oubangui River and found himself on the DRC bank, just opposite Bangui. From here to the capital of DRC, Kinshasa, is a very long, tough trek.

The rebels from Séléka are now in control. They are basically young men from the North-eastern regions of the country, many of them with a Muslim background. But this not a religious inspired rebellion. It is once more ethnicity and regionalism taking hold in a country that has never been able to find the right balance between its different ethnic groups.

The UN has a number of personnel on the ground. Many of them are political officers. This presence is related to the fact that the UN member states have decided, some seven years ago, to include CAR in the priority list for peace building efforts. I sincerely believe that the new developments would require the UN Security Council to think hard about the future of the UN mission in CAR. 

Central African Republic

I have been in touch with Bangui throughout the day. The rebels are again on the move and very close to the capital. There have been some very serious exchanges of fire between them and the South African soldiers, who are in the country to provide assistance to regular army of President Bozizé.

The Central African Republic (CAR) is once more in turmoil. The countries of the region have tried to assist, through the deployment of interposition forces, but with no real success. The South African presence is a bit of an oddity. They have been in and out of CAR in the last few years, to support the regime. As such, they cannot act as bridge between the parties in conflict. The French have troops on the ground. However, their mission is limited to protecting their citizens and the embassy premises.

The UN has also a political office in the country. For the time being, I have decided, as a former senior UN staff, not to comment on UN affairs. Not even today, when the situation in CAR seems to turn again towards a new level of civil war.

What’s next?

Wild Friday nights

Have you driven on Friday evening in some of central districts of Brussels? I rarely do it. I did it tonight. Again, what an experience! A good number of drivers seem to become crazy as we get beyond 08:00 pm.  Maybe it is just that the crazed got their permission to go out and wild. The fact of the matter is that many of those on the city’s avenues on a Friday night drive in a ferocious way. I am told the Police have very little money left for traffic controls – they say they have no real money to pay for the extra hours the officers would be required to perform. Whatever small change is left in the Police budget is used for some infrequent speed checking.  It is the easy way out, as many governments chose to do. 

New leaders are required

The question today is a very painful one: who is in charge of the EU? Indeed, it is sad to note that the European machinery is without a leader, at a time of great confusion and very serious risks for the continuity of the community project. We have not heard a single word from Van Rompuy about the Cypriot debacle. Barroso is travelling in Russia and then goes further east, to Mongolia, but nobody knows what he is recommending. Not even a single word of concern, when many of those who care about the future of Europe feel things are getting tremendously out of hand.

At the national level, Hollande gives the impression he has not been told about Cyprus. Merkel is also silent, which might actually be a better option in her case. And all the others, in the different capitals, are just hiding behind their national borders. Small people are very well known to be fond of the saying “wait and see”…

This crisis calls for a new type of leadership. For people whose voices are clear and able to spell out the direction things should take. For people that are not afraid to say that the way we are now moving brings us to the past. And the past of Europe was pretty ugly. 

The Russians and Merkel

On Cyprus, again... The main concern of all parties – EU and Nicosia – seems to be about face saving. Any solution will now be massaged to look good for both parties. But there is still the Russian unknown. And Berlin gets mad every time the Kremlin is mentioned as a potential partner, as a possible contributor to the solution.

The saga needs to be followed with great attention. It is a turning point in European affairs. 

Time for serious repair work

The Cypriot Parliament has now voted against the foolish financial package that the EU leaders were trying to impose on them. Instead of a sleepless night the bosses of Europe should think about reaching out towards Russia and getting the Kremlin to cost-share the rescue of Cyprus’ banking system. This would be a strategic move. It would build a concrete bridge between the EU and Russia, at a time when many years of empty grand rhetoric have achieved nothing in terms of a real partnership between the two sides. It would also contribute to stabilize the markets which have been seriously affected by Brussels’ decision and will be further destabilized by tonight’s impasse, after the parliamentary vote.

All this requires vision, courage and humility. These are exactly the commodities that have become rare in the EU corridors of power. 

The cluster bomb

The EU decision on Cyprus has had the same effect as a cluster bomb. It has hurt the little credit and confidence that the European citizens still placed on the Union’s leaders. It has hurt Germany’s relations with the South of Europe a lot more. It has hurt further the trust on the banking system. It destroyed value in the all the stock markets. It undermined potential capital investments in Portugal, Spain, Greece and Italy. And it has shown, now that there seems to be some backtracking, that the EU takes critical decisions without looking at all the dimensions and implications of the matters under review. And so on.

A very effective cluster idiocy indeed.

Jeroen Dijsselbloem’s name will remain associated to this inept decision. Besides being the Finance Minister of the Netherlands, he is the President of the Eurogroup, the platform that brings together the EU Finance Ministers. Dijsselbloem took over from Jean-Claude Juncker in January 2013. Juncker, notwithstanding the fact that he comes from a very small country –Luxembourg – managed to demonstrate a strong sense of independence and objectivity. He was his own man and also a firm believer in the common project. The new fellow seems to be biased towards Northern European positions, very close to Angela Merkel’s views and be inspired by a moralistic approach to the issue of public deficits. He believes that the citizens in the crisis countries should be punished for the many years of incautious spending. This is exactly the kind of approach that can make the on-going EU cohesion crisis much worse. 

European idiots

The EU shot itself on the foot once more. The decision it imposed on Cyprus as a condition to approve a package of financial aid is indeed a very serious mistake. It sends a very unequivocal message to everyone: if you put money in a saving account or even invest in a European country that is facing serious economic difficulties you are a fool.

Nobody wants to be taken for an idiot.

Therefore, in the near future we will see a lot of money and potential investments running away from countries such as Portugal, Spain, even Italy, not to mention Cyprus, of course.

The only good thing about being a European idiot is that you might become a government leader in one of the EU countries. You will join the club. 

Hard look and soft minds

I am on the road to discuss the internal security systems and architecture in Portugal and compare the Portuguese response to the French, Spanish, Belgian and Austrian.

Today I listen to the French and could only conclude that their police system is too complex, has too many institutional players and would require a serious performance assessment. But I could also realise that the authorities are not ready to accept a serious review of their security architecture.

Leading by inertia

We are again close another EU summit meeting. They call it a EU Council. But for many observers it looks like one more act in a play called Procrastination...

Snow is not good for national security

In Brussels this afternoon there was a bit of snow again. Just enough powder to make a mess out of the road traffic. People become over cautious and drive at snail pace. That does not prevent many accidents from happening. But it makes moving around a nightmare. My daughter was driving into Brussels from the Mons area, 80 km away, after a long day of work, and it took her close to three hours to reach home.

The impact of all this on me: I spent more time doing baby-sitting-cum-dog-sitting than preparing for my forthcoming seminar on national security in the EU countries. And then I came to the conclusion that a few flakes of snow are a serious threat for the development of national security matters…

Let the Nigerians do the job

The Islamist group called "Vanguards for the Protection of Muslims in Black Africa", also known as Ansaru, is a terrorist organisation aligned with al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). It operates in the Northern part of Nigeria, as a dissident fraction of the better known network of terrorists Boko Haram. They have specialised in the kidnapping of Western nationals working in the country.

Yesterday they executed seven hostages that they had taken recently. The circumstances of these killings remain unclear. But I suspect that the Ansaru men might have felt threatened by an impending military operation against them, most likely involving some form of cooperation between the armed forces of Nigeria and a Western secret service.  If that was the case it would mean that someone in the know might have warned the terrorists. A Western “muscled presence” in those corners of the country is very conspicuous.

Lessons need to be drawn then. Northern Nigeria is not a safe place, neither for white civilians nor for Western services. When it comes to hostages, the job should be done by the Nigerian Special Forces and intelligence officers. They can go far and wide, if the political green light comes from Abuja. 

On a Saturday evening...

I left my home country almost 35 years ago. Since then, I have lived in about 10 different countries, for professional reasons.

Every time I changed I felt like someone initiating a new life opportunity. It was, in many ways, a feat of magic that kept me alert and open-minded. It also helped me to appreciate the many challenges people face in many corners of the world. And allowed me to compare situations and give them their relative weight. But it also taught me that the only good answer to a major challenge is enlightened resoluteness. 

Women's rights

On this International Women’s Day one should recall that the percentage of women in leadership positions is still very low, even in most of the European countries. Company boards, police and defence top echelons, media and many other senior jobs continue to be male dominated. But nowhere that is truer than in the political sphere. Most of political parties give little space to women leaders. That’s why I am a strong advocate of the quota system, imposing an acceptable minimum level of women to occupy effective decision-making positions.

Interestingly, many political leaders who like to see themselves as examples of progressive politics oppose the quota system. They cannot understand that the change has many avenues and one of them is through legal means. They also fail to grasp that true equality requires a much stronger participation of women in active politics. Without proper representation women will never be able to fully fight for their rights and for the right policies. 

European dreams

The leaders of the Visegrad Group – Slovakia, Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland – met yesterday in Warsaw with President Hollande and Chancellor Merkel to discuss defence matters. The four countries want to have a joint battle group of 3,000 soldiers in about three years’ time. This is a good move, particularly if one takes into account that the military cooperation between Slovakia and Hungary requires a confidence boost. It has indeed known better days.

The leaders also talked about today’s Europe. And, to the surprise of some of us, they came to the conclusion that the three instruments that will “construct” the EU are: 1) the economic and monetary union; 2) the competitiveness of the European economies; and 3) the reinforcement of Europe’s defence capabilities.

Well…First, the economic and monetary union seems to be a project for only part of the current members. I do not see the British, the Danes or the Swedes to be willing, one day, to join the Euro. The competitiveness issue is a dream that is killed every day, when one compares the economies of Northern Europe with Spain, Italy or Portugal – forget about Greece! And the European defence capabilities have a very troubled future in front of them. To insist in European common defence when military budgets are on the decline slope is misleading. The European defence will continue to be based on NATO’s role and on the commitment of the US towards Europe. The little resources still available within the European countries’ defence institutions should be used to strengthen the European contribution to NATO’s mandate. 

Leadership is also about a good lunch

When there is a small assembly around a table and a microphone in front of each seat, there is always someone among the big boys that plays the crazy guy, either by rattling on about this and that, in a way that nobody follows or cares about, or then by saying some odd thing that leaves everybody else open-mouthed.

Recently, in a high level meeting between different chiefs of armed forces, one of them, who had remained silent throughout the morning – it is true his country is not really in a position to have a position – , asked for the floor, grasped the microphone, smiled and made a very important statement: I am hungry!

Many in the speechless audience reacted the same way: they checked the time. It was ten to one! The general could be a peculiar fellow, indeed. But he knew the value of a good lunch! 

Strategic accidents

Just travelled back from a meeting that had strategic issues at the centre of the debate. And I could see that very often strategy design is just based on coincidences, on facts that happen at the same time and are taken as indications of the way to follow. Strange! I ended up by calling that “strategizing by accident”.

And also came to the conclusion that in politics that’s often the case. You “build a strategy” on facts that are happening and that you never thought of. Politicians just ride the wave and call that “strategy”.  

On elites

I spent the evening in a discussion about elites. Elites are necessary, but only if they can accept to be challenged and are not afraid of people who are and think differently.

The discussion took place in a very pretty small village next to Lake Leman in between Geneva and Lausanne. The surroundings, I hope, made some of my strong positions seem a little bit softer...

[You see, I am like all those leaders that feel a deep need to be loved...Wrong approach...]

Portugal on the street

Large crowds marched today in the key cities and towns of Portugal against the austerity measures the government is implementing. The key feature of these manifestations was their peaceful nature. People have shown, once more, that they can be on the streets and behave responsibly.

Many of the protesters could be defined as middle class families that are going through a process of impoverishment. For many of them and for many years their living standards were based on a fiction: that the country could afford a level of public expenditures that was well beyond the means of the economy. With the international financial crisis this fiction could no longer be sustained. The state could no longer borrow in the international markets at low rates of interest. To be able to finance the public sector and adjust spending to the real possibilities of the economy over a short period of time, the state had to look for funds coming from the IMF, the ECB and the European Commission. These monies came with strings attached, as expected. And that hurts. It hurts even further because the government has realised – but cannot explain it properly and clearly, for reasons that are beyond my understanding – that the long term sustainability of public expenditures calls for further cuts, particularly if one takes into account the fragility of the economy and the very low rate of productive investment that has been recorded so far.

In a country where the state was the true engine of the economy – unfortunately the private sector had not been able during the last two decades to take off and expand; it remained too dependent of state projects and orders and largely linked to political patronage – if public expenditure goes significantly down most of the economy tends to collapse.

The point is to get as many investments from outside as possible. My hope is that today’s popular civism be perceived by those potentially interested in investing in Portugal as an encouragement to do so. 

Honduras: the homicide country

 I just noticed, after speaking at length over Skype with a former senior colleague who is now retired and decided to live in Honduras, that the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime ranks that Central America nation as number one in the world in terms of its Homicide Rate.  Indeed, Honduras averaged 91.6 murders per 100,000 people in 2011. To put this number into perspective, the United States has a rate of 4.8 murders per 100,000 and the UK’s rate is 1.2.

All of sudden, I got worried for my friend. 

On Greece: what should we conclude?

On Greece, from today's Eurointelligence daily report:

Confidential troika report reveals significant delays in tax collection

Greece missed key revenue targets by a wide margin last year, triggering concern over whether the government is fully committed to cracking down on tax evasion and graft, the FT quotes a confidential troika report leaked to the Greek press. The collection of overdue tax raised only €1.1bn in 2012, compared with a target of €2bn, while unpaid tax increased by 10% to €55bn, equivalent to almost 30% of national output. Two years after the launch of broad-ranging tax reforms, Athens each year still collects less than 10% of total assessed taxes on personal income and corporate profits. Thousands of Greek company owners and self-employed professionals routinely contest their assessments through the courts waiting for the finance ministry to grant tax amnesty settling for a tax bill cut by at least 30%.  The official Greek translation of the report, dated January 31, was accessible on Thursday on the websites of several Athens newspapers.