Brussels cancels the New Year...

The Brussels mayor has just decided to cancel tomorrow´s fireworks and other street celebrations that were planned for New Year´s night.

A lot of people seem to be shocked by the decision. They basically argue that it gives up to all those who aim at destroying our way of life. They see it as capitulation.

My advice is to accept it and also to consider that such a decision was certainly not taken lightly. I see behind it a lot of ponderation, analysis and discussion among people who know the situation.

Actually, if we take into account that the mayor opted for it, notwithstanding the many costs it carries, including those related to the reputation of the city, we should also conclude that the menaces are much more real than what we had thought. And such conclusion is certainly a matter of concern. 

Model politician 2015

My question of yesterday about the model politician in 2015 has been responded to by a number of friends. And obviously, Angela Merkel and Pope Francis came out as this year´s top leaders.

I am certainly in agreement. But for different reasons, I found John Kerry the most inspiring politician of the year. He is no longer a young man. At his age, many would be writing their memories or playing golf.

Not John Kerry. He has shown energy, determination, optimism. He has achieved results in an environment, both domestic and international, that was far from favourable. I decided therefore to recognise his untiring efforts in the opinion piece I have just written and that will be published in tomorrow´s edition of the Visão magazine in Portugal. 

Who should be considered the model politician in 2015?

Close to the end of the year, I ask myself who should be considered the model politician in 2015.

I have a small number of names in mind. And I realise how much this list is influenced by the big global TV channels. The faces we see more often on those screens have a greater chance of being considered the top players. We tend to forget that some of these politicians produce a lot of smoke and know how to play the mirrors game. But in the end, they had very little impact in terms of improving people´s lives. They might have made things even more complicated.

Who to choose then? 

Poland is adding new challenges to the EU

Poland´s new political situation, with the Law and Justice Party (PiS) as the governing force, was the top headline in today´s Le Monde. The French newspaper, a reference daily for many in Europe, focussed its analysis and comments on the PiS-supported government´s efforts to take control of the Constitutional Court of Poland and on its very conservative, nationalistic and authoritarian political agenda. It also made reference to the new approach being followed in Warsaw towards the EU. That approach is certainly perceived as not very constructive and is clearly clashing with the policies adopted by the EU institutions and most of the member states.

Poland´s new leaders will bring additional challenges in 2016 to the European project. There was no need for that addition. But it has to be taken into account as the country is an important player within the Union.

MENA´s challenges

The total population of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is close to 400 million. Of those, more than 50% are under the age of 25. And a very good number of these young people have no jobs. In Saudi Arabia, for instance, the youth unemployment rate is about 28% and this figure is most likely grossly underestimated. And Saudi Arabia is one of the best in the pack…

Furthermore, during the last 15 years or so there has been a very rapid expansion of the number of university graduates throughout the region. In many cases, the university degrees they obtained have only very weak links with the market needs. But the fact of the matter is that the economies of the region – in those countries that still have a working economy – are not able to respond to the job demands.

There is plenty of youth frustration. And this is now a frustration in urban settings as MENA has one of the highest urbanization rates in the world. Frustration of city dwellers leads to the most explosive type of rebellion.

Furthermore, the population growth rate, which is around 2% per annum, is only second to the one in Africa. The numbers are moving fast. They add additional complications to a situation that is already particularly challenging.

Regional leaders seem to be looking elsewhere. And we, in our part of the world, prefer to focus on the symptoms. And not to engage in a meaningful dialogue with them.

Good examples coming from Spain

The Spanish general elections revealed a very high participation rate – close to 73% - a strong support to two grassroots movements, one at the left of the spectrum, Podemos, and the other at the centre, Ciudadanos. The conclusion is that Spaniards feel committed to parliamentary democracy and want to be heard. As a result, there is a true renewal in the political circles. This should be example to be followed by other European countries, including France next door.

It is also a fact that the outcome of the elections has brought some serious fragmentation to Parliament. But I see that as a positive move. It will require the parties to seek alliances and compromises. And that´s how politics in the EU member states should be. 

Syria: the key Foreign ministers should remain closely engaged

One can have plenty of doubts about the realism and feasibility of the UN Security Council resolution on Syria, adopted yesterday. However, in view of the extreme complex situation the country is going through, a situation that has lasted now for too long, any move by the UN should be appreciated and encouraged. Particularly this one that has been discussed at the level of Foreign ministers. Actually, the continued personal involvement of the ministers will be required as we go into the implementation phase. That´s the best way to ensure that they see this process as being under their direct responsibility. The UN Special Envoy, Staffan de Mistura, can be the personification of the international community´s commitment to Syria. But he will need the unswerving support of the key ministers. That will be key for any progress to take place. 

Making the distinction between humanitarian and development aid

At present, with the refugee crises and the displacements of people in many countries, the humanitarian funding needs are exceptionally high. Several donor countries have markedly increased their contributions during the last few months. Among them, the European Commission and some EU countries, as well as the US, have shown leadership. They are again among the top contributors to humanitarian assistance.

The challenge is to finance the humanitarian response without cutting the aid development budgets. These should be seen as two different strands within the international cooperation finances. But the fact of the matter is that in several countries the humanitarian resources are generated these days by diverting development money to meet immediate requirements. The development assistance resources for 2016 will be seriously affected, if this trend is not reversed. 

EU meets on Brexit and clarifies nothing

There will be another EU summit here in Brussels tomorrow. This time the main course on the table should consist on the British future within the Union. 

UK Prime Minister Cameron wants the other European leaders to set the principles that will guide the bureaucrats’ work during the next couple of months as they will draft the response to Britain´s demands. He expects the leaders to be generous and therefore ready to support his views. Cameron thinks there is no way for his position not to be accepted. EU leaders want, in his opinion, to keep the UK in and will therefore cave in.

I think the leaders will indeed be soft on Cameron. Not because they agree with his exigencies. They actually think he is unreasonable. They will accept a softer line just because they are too distracted with their own national concerns and with other matters such as the common response to the refugee flows to be bothered at this stage by the British domestic politics.

And that´s a risk. In such matters the more you let the situation go undefined the greater the risk of later clashes. But this is the way the EU leaders do business at present. 

Human Development Report 2015

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has launched today its 2015 edition of the Human Development Report.

This is an annual compilation of data and indexes that has become during the last 25 years a major reference document to compare how each country of the world is doing in terms of addressing social and human progress.  Each edition contains also a state-of-the-art reflection about a critical dimension of human development. This year´s theme is about work. As it has been the case with past reflections, the texts included in the report do raise quite a number of innovative approaches to work, jobs and human dignity. 

Marine Le Pen tonight

The outcome of the French regional elections is now clear. I mean, it shows that the Front National (FN) of Marine Le Pen keeps attracting new supporters as time goes on. It will be, sooner or later, a major democratic challenge for France and a huge headache for Europe. We better be aware of that. And address, as we can, the issues that explain the FN´s political expansion. We should do it before it is too late. 

COP21: good news!

Laurent Fabius, the French Foreign Minister, has been an excellent chair of the Paris Climate Change Conference. Tonight´s global agreement on an action plan is in many ways due to his wise leadership of the COP21 meeting. As we celebrate the agreement that has been reached we should also recognise the work the minister has done during the last two weeks.

And this is good news for the world, for the future and also good news for the French government. François Hollande´s government has been a weak player on the European front. Today´s success brings a little bit of lustre to Hollande and his team. That´s important as the prestige of France is one of the key elements that contributes to a more balanced Europe. 

Human rights

We should remember and celebrate the day: Human Rights Day.

For many, in different corners of the world, human rights remain an unfulfilled aspiration. That´s their main concern.

Our responsibility is to denounce those regimes that deny the basic rights people are supposed to enjoy. And we should make it clear that a society that actively recognises the rights of its citizens is on the correct path towards development and peace. 

A giant called Angela

Time magazine has selected Angela Merkel as “person of the year”.

I fully agree. The Chancellor has shown leadership, particularly when the challenges Europe was confronted with gained a menacing dimension. In many ways, she kept the EU together. Her stature looked even greater when compared with the ones assumed by the other actors.

She is a woman in the midst of a number of political dwarfs. 

Our European problems and Cameron´s

There is very little time, these days, to think about David Cameron and his conditions for the UK to remain within the EU.

France and Marine Le Pen´s initial electoral victory are taking a lot of the attention span available. And there are good reasons for that. Le Pen´s race to power needs to be stopped. And the concerns of her voters must be responded to at the same time. These are two immense jobs. They concern not only the French but all those in the vicinity who believe in a united Europe.

Then, there is the fight against terrorism. The key issue is to devise approaches that could effectively prevent the radicalisation of some young Europeans. There is a lot of debate about the issue of radicalisation but not enough concrete ideas on how to tackle it. The competition for new ideas is open.

The immigration issue is still unresolved. That adds a very heavy burden to the European agenda. And the longer it takes the more complex it becomes. The first step here is to strengthen the Schengen external borders. But there are many other things that need to be dealt with, including the very serious challenge of integrating those who are already in. This task is now particularly complex in view of the current change of opinion about the massive presence of Muslim populations in the European space.

In the midst of these very critical issues the UK´s referendum looks very much like Cameron´s self-created problem. He will have to take the lead in sorting it out. He knows that his key financial masters want the UK to stay in the EU. He also understands he cannot deceive them. He has therefore to be smart and imaginative. What a challenge!

A day in life

I had planned that I would end today by saying thank you to a very good number of friends.

I still want to do it, as I am very touched by so many messages and calls I received throughout the day. It is a privilege to have some many friends in so many corners of the world. Well, after spending a full life on the road, what else could I expect?

But beyond the words of acknowledgment and gratitude, I have to place one or two of anxiety in view of the results in France.

The end of the day brought in the news about the National Front (FN) of Marine Le Pen and its big jump forward in the regional elections.

Radicalism is certainly not good for the future of France and also not good for the European common project. Le Pen´s electoral growth shows we have a real problem with a good number of citizens that feel discouraged and see the EU has a threat. This adds one more critical challenge to a list that has already some very dangerous lines on it. 

Brussels: life goes on

I walked the streets of central Brussels last night and was happy to see so many people enjoying the festive spirit of these days leading to Christmas. That´s how life in our part of the world is. That ´s normalcy. And that´s what I would like to see in other corners of the planet as well: people enjoying the freedom of being together in peace. 

Hate or madness?

It is indeed too early to jump to conclusions but the mass killings in San Bernardino, California, raise a number of very worrisome questions. And these are not just about the access to weapons in the US. They would certainly be related to the growing culture of hatred we see taking roots in our societies. Is it so, or are dealing with another isolated drama? 

Dealing with the terrorists in a comprehensive manner

The number of players against the terrorists of the Islamic State is increasing by the day. There is a growing military engagement from the West in Syria and Iraq, in addition to the forces committed by the region and by Russia. There is even some military coordination with Assad in Damascus.

All this is fine. It shows the extraordinary concern that is shared by a good number of countries. IS represents indeed a very serious challenge to the region and to our part of the world as well. It has to be defeated. But I am afraid that the military response might not be enough to settle this major challenge. Even if we take into account the forthcoming deployment of some US Special Forces units, a decision that should be supported.

The military response is the easy response to IS. We need a political strategy too. And I can´t see it, neither in Baghdad nor in Damascus and even less so in Europe.

People say the comprehensive strategy will come. Good. In meantime, we should understand that this crisis is a long term affair. 

AIDS remains a major problem

The big names in the media have a full plate these days. Too many things going on, from the climate change meeting to Russia passing through Turkey…Therefore, there was no striking mention of today´s World AIDS Day. Pity. AIDS remains a major issue for many people and a major cause of impoverishment for communities that are already struggling. It cannot be forgotten. Once a year, at least, AIDS has to be part of the headlines.