A dictator called Viktor Orban

The emergency powers approved yesterday by the Hungarian Parliament are outside the democratic framework that guides the European politics and governance. They allow the Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, to rule by decree as he pleases and for as long as he wants to. He will have the authority to imprison any opponent for years, including journalists, bloggers, human rights activists and whoever he sees as a threat to his leadership. This move must be clearly denounced by the European leaders. It cannot just be mentioned in vague terms, as Ursula von der Leyen did today. It must be spelled out with all letters and with the Prime Minister’s name attached to it. The EU has no place for people like Mr. Orban.

Positive stories must be told as well

Reports say that China is 85% back to normal. I have some questions about this figure. I think it is too high. But there is no doubt that the economic activity is resuming. And people are again on the move. There are still some restrictions being imposed, especially on travellers intending to come in from abroad. But all in all, things are now moving in the direction of recovery. 

That’s good news. Our media should be reporting about that. We need that kind of encouraging news. It is not good just to be inundated with our own sad figures and disturbing information about the existing chaos in some of our Western places. 

We must also fight all types of prejudice concerning the Chinese people. That should be part of the new world, the one we would like to live in, after the Covid crisis.

The American disorientation

I felt very sad as I watched the American news. The country seems to be drifting. There is no coherent and effective response to the virus crisis. What I perceive is cacophony and partisanship. That’s not the best response to a challenge of this size. And the problem is still at its beginning. It will get much bigger as the days flow. It is incredible to see the most powerful country in the world being unable to organise a proper public health campaign. This is an exceptional threat and the leaders must take extraordinary measures, well beyond the conventional ones. That’s the only way to be equipped to confront the pandemic.

The American confusion is not encouraging. It must be redefined along the recommendations coming from the public health experts. That has to happen as the new week starts.

I am not sure the President can stand to the task.

And I am also very disappointed by Joe Biden’s timid and poorly communicated approach to it.

EU must work together

It would be a serious mistake to continue the ongoing noise about the future of the European Union. The priority now is to combat the virus, safe lives and accelerate the vaccine research. The member states should be discussing and agreeing on what must be done together and in a coordination matter in these areas. There are already some positive moves of collaboration. They must be expanded immediately.  

The discussion about the economic recovery is also an urgent matter. But it would be much easier if the priorities I mention above could be effectively addressed. The shorter the period of the crisis the easier it will be to deal with the economic dimensions.

The required leadership is lacking

When the challenge is huge and its evolution unpredictable, the best approach is to concentrate all the efforts on containment. You limit the fire as much as possible. That means reducing the impact of the challenge and look for ways and means of controlling it. It also implies we mobilise everyone that can be called upon. The issue concerns everyone and each person can play a role in addressing it. That must be the message the leaders should bring forward. The collective effort. It’s a phase by phase combat but it is also part of a broader plan to resolve it. That must be said and repeated until every citizen gets to understand what is at play and the direction the leaders are taking.

This time the challenge is unique, profound and global. It requires a good combination of local actions and international cooperation. It concerns all nations. As such, we must put a much stronger emphasis on a concerted response. That emphasis and that type of action are still missing. Those who have the authority to call for that must act now. They have to move beyond their current timidity. Hesitation is not acceptable.

Brussels is absent

The European Union can only survive in the hearts and minds of its citizens if it is perceived as political project that promotes freedom and prosperity, protects the people and facilitates solidarity among the different nations. If it fails to do so, it will lose the support and will become a very fragile meeting point of contradictory national interests. With the current crisis, these goals are being challenged. That is certainly not a very good foundation for the future. In addition, the new leadership of the institutions gives the impression of lacking the necessary weight and audacity. They certainly are very honest people. But that is immensely insufficient at a time of profound shock and division. I am certainly worried by the current lack of visibility and initiative coming from the institutions.

Again about India and the pandemic

Yesterday I wrote a few lines about India’s decision to confine her citizens. It’s a 21 days lockdown for 1,3 billion people. Many, in my part of world, cannot understand the magnitude and the complexity of such a decision. They do not know that hundreds of millions in India have no regular job. They live in cities and struggle, every day, to get some sort of casual work, that will give them enough rupees to buy the daily food their families and themselves need. That is how the informal sector operates, each day being a new beginning. And most of the people survive within the informal, occasional economy. If the economy is brought to a standstill, as it is now the case, that means no means of survival. It is just dramatic. Then, the solution is to try to go back to their ancestral villages and do some very basic farming. That’s what has happened in the last days or so. Millions have travelled back, in crowded buses, lorries and on the few trains that are still operating. As they moved back, one on top of the other, they might have caught the virus from their fellow travellers. If so, that means the virus has been passed on to an incalculable number of people and brought from the cities to the rural areas. That would be mass contagion. We will see. But we can be at the gate of a major public health problem in the largest country on earth. It would give the pandemic crisis a new, terrifying dimension. I can only hope this scenario is not going to happen.

India and elsewhere

India on lockdown can only be big news. That’s an impressive number of people. And it raises deep concerns as we know the fragilities of the health system in the country. I can only hope the virus does not spread out all over the country. And then, I think of other countries in the region, also with large populations and even weaker health facilities. And down the line, we have Africa. Everything must be done to prevent the spread of Covid-19 into the poorest parts of the world. If that is let to happen, we would be moving into massive tragedies. All this constitutes an unprecedented challenge.

Stay at home

This is an exceptional time in our modern history. It’s an extremely dramatic moment for some, and a very challenging menace for the humanity. But there is hope. The cooperation in terms of medical research is greater than what people are being told. It’s just a question of time. And we cannot run out of time. That’s why it is very important to isolate, to stay at home, to delay the contagion. People are getting this message. There was a survey today in Francophone Belgium and close to 90% of those who answered to the question said they are coping well with the mandatory stay-at-home rule. I think these results also reflect what is felt elsewhere, in other parts of the world.

Africa is calling me

I got a few calls in the last couple of days from African friends who live in different parts of Africa. They all wanted to know if I was feeling well. They were worried about me and my family, as we live in a dangerous part of the world, the unsafe Europe. I was very pleased to be able to chat with them. And amazed that the concerns were now running in the opposite direction. It was no longer me calling them to find out how is Kinshasa, or Bulawayo, Bujumbura, Freetown, Ouagadougou, Bamako treating them. That has been the tradition. But now, we live in a new normal, a world that has changed so fast in last few weeks. As one of them told me today, I am now at the epicentre of global crisis. And indeed, we all are, particularly in Italy, France, Spain, and so on. There is only one concern in the air. And every conversation is about the same subject. The same subject that made my worried African friends call me.

Health and freedom: the key aspirations

Plenty of thoughts about the geopolitical picture after the coronavirus pandemic crisis. Plenty of intellectuals frantically writing about this matter. I just tell them, at this stage, that after the health issues, the priority remains focused on safeguarding the different freedoms we so intensely cherish. Today’s world is an open space. People all over want to be free. Healthy and free.

Tomorrow's world

This pandemic might be a major turning point in many aspects of today’s lifestyles, not to mention politics and international relations. We will see. Some people are already speculating about those changes. That’s a way for them to advance their own personal agendas and political views. They can write many words about the coronavirus and its links to consumerism, inequalities, environmental issues and so on, including the impact of individual liberties. I have already read several pieces that do that expedition into the future of the humanity. And I concluded that all those words end up by being vague and a repetition of current banners. Propaganda instead of prospective thinking.

They distract many of us of the real challenges of the moment: to slow down the spreading of the virus and support the required research to produce a vaccine as soon as possible. These should be the two top priorities at this stage.

If you are a social scientist, a philosopher or an opinion maker, you should concentrate your attention on the first challenge. That’s within your reach. Tell the people they can make a difference in terms of contagion if they behave responsibly. Tell above all the young people to be as prudent as everybody else. The younger ones have been told that the disease would only have a mild effect on them. That was a communication mistake. It can seriously affect them, first. And they can catch it and pass it on to older people, with disastrous consequences.  

The debate about the future will take place at the appropriate time, once things are again under control. It will certainly be a very interesting discussion. Tomorrow’s world will be a post-coronavirus new reality, I am sure.

Crying for Italy

Today, we should say we are all Italians. The country is going through a catastrophic health crisis. The number of casualties is now bigger than the one experience by China, a nation that is many times more populous than Italy. We can only be deeply disturbed and extremely sorry.

The lessons will be drawn later. At this stage, it is vital to provide all types of support to the Italian health system. That should be a key priority within the EU. Ursula von der Leyen should be speaking about that day and night.

Fast and plenty of money

The key concern is to safe lives. All the efforts should take that as a priority. And make sure that the infection trend is bent and starts pointing down. The sooner we change the trend the better. It will send a message of hope. And that type of message is urgently needed.

The economy is the other dimension we must consider. We cannot find ourselves surviving the disease and dying of the treatment. The productive tissue must remain as intact as possible. Firms and jobs must be helped. They will require major injections of fresh capital. The leaders should keep sending the message that money will not be a problem.

The health challenges in the refugee camps

How is the coronavirus situation in the refugee camps around Syria? What is the risk level? Are the host governments, the UN and the NGOs prepared to deal with such threat?

I do not have an answer to these questions. And I am afraid we have lost sight of them, as well.

The Democratic candidate

The coronavirus has erased the Democratic party’s primaries from the news. Who remembers that Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders had a debate just yesterday? Even those who know about it can’t tell what the meat of such debate was. 

As such, it would be advisable to bring the primaries to an end. That would mean Sanders departing the race. Then, the Democrats could focus on promoting Biden as an alternative to the erratic and incompetent President we have today. 

Biden is an experienced politician but not a very good orator. His tone of voice doesn’t help either. It is not pleasant to hear. He must add to his presidential ticket not only a woman, as he promised he would do, but above all a woman that can speak better than he does.

Take example from Asia

In the combat against the coronavirus, Europe should learn from the experiences of China, South Korea and Macau. They were confronted with huge challenges and have found the way to respond to them. They based their responses on massive lockdowns, extensive testing and social isolation for everyone. In the case of China, the approach was complemented by building new hospitals in incredibly short periods of time and the mobilisation of every possible resource to produce simple intensive care equipment, protection medical suits, and the appropriate masks. In all three cases, the success was a combination of extreme civic discipline with the right type of hospital treatment.

Europe is now at the door of major expansion of the disease. It should be ready to coordinate its response. Unfortunately, that’s not the case. But, at least, it should keep as many people out of the public space as possible, for a small number of weeks. It would see the difference.

Unfortunately, many people have not yet grasped the intensity of the menace. The leaders should be frank about it. They should use the right words to explain the possible impact of the disease. To say that they do not want to contribute to alarmism is not an acceptable response. Europeans can handle hard truths if they are told the full story. It is my conviction that the leaders need to agree on a common European-wide discourse about COVID-19 and talk to the citizens based on that agreed music sheet. A lot of the success has to do with people’s behaviour. They should be told what the consequences of good or bad behaviour are.

President Trump's smart press conference

President Trump’s press conference about the coronavirus pandemic was a smart move. It was about big money, resources to fight the virus, and to show an alliance between his office and key pharmaceutical corporations. He said the usual banalities about the extraordinary job he is performing, attacked the Europeans and the Chinese, stated the populist slogans that are his banners, and so on. That was the painful part of the show. But the expressions of support he got from the medical specialists and the corporations gave the impression to the middle-of-the-road American Joe and Josephine that the President is mobilising every effort and his directing the campaign. That is a vote gainer and it is also appreciated by the markets. Not bad, when we know that a good deal of this challenge has to be fought at the level of the public opinion.

We have a crisis in our hands

In some European countries, today we have reached a turning point. They have adopted very stringent measures to contain the coronavirus pandemic. 

The decisions have nothing to do with President Trump’s harsh words about us, words that were pronounced yesterday, when he was announcing the entry ban on European visitors. 

Today’s measures, adopted in France, Belgium, Denmark, Spain, Portugal and elsewhere, are just an indication of the level of risk we are confronted with. The pandemic is a major menace, that was the message coming from the different governments. It is huge because nobody knows the dimension it might get, nobody is in a position to guess a timeframe but everyone sees it will have a major impact on human lives, on public resources, on living standards, on lots of economic, financial and social aspects.

In view of that, the preventive measures can only be of an extraordinary nature. Some might seem disproportionate, but who knows what is reasonable or excessive, in a crisis of this dimension?

Bernie must accept the facts

Bernie Sanders is on the losing side of the Democratic primaries. He wants to stay on and debate Joe Biden this coming Sunday. I think it is a divisive move, but I respect his decision. But my opinion about his campaign is very clear. Soon after the next round and if there is no miracle, he should acknowledge Biden’s victory and move out of the race. His continuation in the primaries can become a distraction. A serious one, when the objective is to gain enough leverage to beat President Trump.

Vladimir Putin is for ever

Vladimir Putin's current term of office ends in 2024. His country’s Constitution stipulates that he cannot run again. He has been in power for 20 years. But today, in the middle of all the sad and worrying news about the coronavirus, we got a nice breeze of fresh air coming from Moscow. The Russian Duma – Parliament – has approved a resolution that opens the way for Mr. Putin to stay in power until 2036. He will be 84 by then. That’s a very nice age for an early retirement from the Russian politics.

President Erdogan's visit to Brussels

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was in Brussels today.

First, he met the Secretary-General of NATO. He got a very simple message. NATO is already doing quite a bit for Turkey, in terms of deployment of radars and other means of defence. But it can’t do much more, particularly in support of Turkey’s campaign inside Syria. That would bring the Organization, sooner or later, into a direct clash with Russia. Nobody within the Alliance wants that to happen. Moreover, many within NATO are yet to understand the special defence relationship President Erdogan has developed with the Russian President. He seems to have one foot in NATO and the other in Moscow. That’s certainly a strange policy.

Second, he spent time with the EU leaders, Charles Michel and Ursula von der Leyen. The meeting came to no real conclusion. There is little love left within the EU for Erdogan’s actions, in particular for his manipulation of the migrant and refugee populations. Erdogan is seen by many as a problem, a big challenge at the gates of Europe.

If there is one conclusion to take from the visit, I would say that in Europe there is no trust on President Erdogan’s ambitions. That should be clearly stated.

International Women's Day

International Women’s Day is about equality between men and women, boys and girls. It is about equal rights. We can celebrate what has already been achieved but we have also to acknowledge the shortcomings and wrongs.

It is an ongoing struggle. In many societies, there is still a long road ahead. It must be walked without further delays. A nation that leaves behind the women does not belong to today’s times. It must catch up.

In our part of the world, it is more about attitudes that have yet to change, it is about implementing what we know it is right, transforming into reality the nice words we pronounce.

In both cases, and in very practical terms, it all begins with education and putting an end to all types of violence practised against women and girls. 

The best way to move forward is to have women in positions of power, including political and economic power. I know that men in leading roles can also fight for women’s rights. We have several cases we could mention. But in my own experience, I have learned that it is much better, more impactful, to have those leading roles taken up by women.

Contain, contain, contain

Today’s word is containment. Every government should ask themselves what they can do to more efficiently contain the epidemic. That must be the priority. But containment is not just about the disease. It is a lot, a great deal, about the disease. Indeed. But is also about the panic and the epidemic’s impact on key sectors of the world’s economy.

Javier Pérez de Cuéllar: an exceptional diplomat

I know there are many things going on and competing for today’s headlines. All of them are of great importance. They concern people at the Turkish-Greek border, people in Idlib, Syria, people sick with the Covid-19 pandemic, people losing their jobs because of the pandemic’s tremendous economic impact, young people kept out of their classrooms, and so on. They also concern big political games, such as the Putin-Erdogan meeting, the US elections, the Japanese and the fate of this year’s Olympic Games, or the political crisis in Kabul. But my headline is about the passing away of Javier Pérez de Cuéllar, the former UN Secretary-General. He was an old-style diplomat but a very effective one. During his time at the head of the UN the organization managed to resolve a number of major conflicts and wars. He led an organization that achieved results and was the glue the Security Council needed to be able to function. Respected by everyone, he has shown that charisma is not about being loud and highly visible. Charisma is about persistence, coherence and principles. That summarizes the Secretary-General he was.

Ursula's friend

In her speech of yesterday, at the border between Greece and Turkey, the President of the European Commission said that the Turkish Head of State, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is a friend of Europe. Ursula von der Leyen might have read George Orwell on the flight from Brussels to the border. At least, she got the inspiration and doublespeak he talked about in his book

The border line

Today, the Presidents of the European Council, the Commission and the European Parliament visited the Greek border with Turkey. The Prime Minister of Greece was their host. The message they put across is very clear. The European borders are now closed to mass movements. Immigrants and refugee candidates are not welcome.

The visiting party basically approved the decision taken by the Greek authorities to use all means available to enforce the message. This is a clear shift from the policy line followed by Angela Merkel and others in 2015. It places security and social homogeneity above any other consideration.

The humanitarian dimension is seen as a funding activity. The Europeans pay and others will take care of the refugees. Outside the EU borders. This is the new policy line on mass immigration.

Immigrants at the EU gates

Political pundits keep repeating, since the massive arrival of immigrants and refugees in 2015, that the European Union has no unified policy on the matter. And it is true, in so many ways. Mass immigration and refugee flows are issues that have a serious impact on the stability and moderation of the EU. But there is no overall agreement among the member States on how to deal with the issues. The approach has been to sweep it under the carpet and let the frontline countries manage the challenge. That’s what has happened with Italy and Greece, among others. They were left alone with the problems and no real EU support.

What’s happening now at the Greek-Turkish border adds another element to such approach. Close the border crossings, respond by deploying large numbers of police and soldiers, keep the immigrants on the other side of the barbed wire. That is the policy, a policy that is closer to a common one. A no-entry policy.

But is it sustainable? That’s one of the key questions. The other one is about the humanity of such policy. Is it coherent with the values we say we defend? Third point: can we rely of dictators and other strong men, when we ask them to keep the refugees in their countries and add to that a few billions to pay for the camps?

I recognise this is a complex matter. And I see, once again, that when the issue is complicated, we tend to use a hammer to sort it out.

A challenging March

As we get into March, we can be sure we will have major challenges in front of us. The coronavirus will probably be the most critical. It has all the key ingredients to confuse many of us. People will keep pressing the panic button and the political leaders will be jumping in all directions, just to show to the citizens that they are moving as required. Then, there will be the economic impact. On the economic side, the crisis can be multifaceted. There will be less demand, the supply chains will be disrupted, and many enterprises will face serious cash problems. In addition, the stocks will not be able to recover the immense value that has been lost during the past week and probably the week ahead.

Obviously, the health systems will be under serious stress. They will become distorted as much of the resources will be focused on the Covid-19 pandemic.

Adding to the above, we will see an escalation of the conflict between Turkey and Syria, supported by Russia, a new migratory crisis and a Brexit on the rocks.

This is a time that calls for a new type of leadership.