Floods, demonstrations and media attention

The floods in and around Paris and other areas have washed away from the news the strikes and other demonstrations that had made the headlines prior to these natural calamities. And mass action without plenty of pictures on TV loses speed and strength. But the issues are still on the table and we can expect the protests to come back once the waters have receded. But the momentum will no longer be the same. Furthermore, with the Euro football matches about to kick off, there will be further competition for media space. In addition, we will hear a number of voices calling for restraint during the championship. The government should take advantage of this quieter period to better communicate its policies and their context. That has to be done with a different kind of skills, in a more conciliatory and patient tone, not with the intransigent way of speaking we have seen the Prime Minister making use of. 

On the Brexit high risk

Here, in Europe, the agenda for the next three weeks should be focussed on the British referendum. There is a serious risk of Brexit. To think otherwise is dramatically foolish.

This type of vote, this referendum, is not about the economy. The economic arguments are certainly very compelling and strongly support the Remain position, but they are not the key consideration people keep in mind when deciding about their choice. This is about the most irrational part of emotive politics, it´s about nationalistic feelings and myths, and the old time believe that the British are different from the other Europeans. It has to be dealt with at that level of passion. With strong political arguments, and a clear response to the prevailing prejudices. That´s not easy. The Brexit talk is much easier, much closer to many of the existing phantoms that populate a good number of minds. And that´s why the risk is so high. 

Poverty, drought and neglect in the Sahel

It is with deep sadness that we have learned about the loss of another five peacekeepers deployed in Mali with the UN mission. They were killed yesterday by a group of armed men. The mission has been repeatedly targeted. This time the attack took place in the central region of the country, well outside the troubled areas of Northern Mali. It´s therefore a new development and one should be very concerned. It shows that the insecurity is now reaching other provinces. It also raises a few questions about the dissemination of extremist ideas to different parts of the Malian countryside. Endemic poverty combined with a couple of years of drought and abandonment by the central authorities make some people more attentive to the words of local preachers that have acquired their simplistic views in some faraway places in the Arab Peninsula. 

The 2016 G7 Summit is over

This year´s G7 Summit, just completed in Japan, made no history. It was hardly noticed by the European public opinion, just to mention those close to home. Jean-Claude Juncker, the EU Commission President made some brief references to the steel dispute with China, on top of mentioning that the European economy is now much better than in 2008 and that it is moving in a healthy direction. Well, that´s good to know. Donald Tusk, the EU Council President, said a couple of things as well, but no one remembers a word of it. And that was basically the European side of the story, because Merkel, Hollande and Renzi were too concerned about their own domestic problems to be able to fly higher than their national contexts.

Moreover, there was a small number of heads of State from non-G7 countries at the tail end of the summit. They were certainly very happy to sit with the big people and be part of the group picture. But their contribution to the discussions remains unclear. Most likely, to them as well.

On the G7 Summit

The G7 Summit, which has just started in Japan, has been used by President Obama to send a few darts against Donald Trump. Fine. Everything that can be done to fight Trump´s threatening campaign should be welcome. But the key issues at the meeting were not about Trump´s race towards the White House. There was a mixed vinaigrette salad on the table. Each leader came to the meeting with her or his own concerns. Japan, for instance, is more than ever worried about China. In some ways that apprehension is shared with the US, as far as it concerns the disputed islands in the South China Sea. Europe is anxious about unstoppable migration flows and their tremendous destabilising impact on the traditional way of doing politics, particularly the rise of all types of populist ideas. But the show most go on. That´s why we have these summits: they allow the leaders to pretend they are apprehensive with and responding to global matters when, in fact, they are just trying to address their own individual domestic challenges. Politics, including international affairs, remain focussed on narrow national agendas. 

Africa Day

On this Day of Africa, I acknowledge that the EU´s Africa policy has lost visibility and depth. 

Austria and the European silence

The extreme-right candidate ended up by losing the presidential elections in Austria. He was pretty close to get the position, as the final results have shown. And during the last couple of weeks or so, he was considered by many observers in Brussels and elsewhere in the EU as the likely winner of the elections, the possible future president of Austria. Ten or fifteen years ago, such possibility would have raised a wave of indignation throughout Europe. It would have been a major roar. Not now. The EU leaders and the key opinion makers are so absorbed by other major issues that they had no time – and probably very little energy left – to express any audible type of rejection for a candidate that is a true wolf in a sheep´s skin. Meaning, an extremist with a sweet voice and a nice presentation, a young politician with antiquated ideas, an extremist that wanted to be seen as a centrist, a term he used many times, as a bright cape to hide the dark clothes of his policy options. And that worrying silence is, in my opinion, one of the main preoccupations we should keep in mind, a key question mark, as we look at this case. 

To be better at fighting radical views

My understanding is that the anti-radicalisation programmes in France and Belgium, at least, are not achieving the expected results. The information available shows that the extremist proselytism is still taking place and that no real action is taken against the preachers responsible for the propagation of such unacceptable and dangerous views. In many cases, the means available to deal with this complex issue are too modest and dispersed.

In some of our societies in the Western part of Europe, the fanaticism touches more families than initially thought. The illegal running of koranic “schools” says a lot about the penetration of religious radicalism within certain communities. This week, for instance, the mayor of Molenbeek, in Brussels, announced that a “school” for children aged between 3 and 8 years had been found operating without any kind of authorization. The place was attended by 38 pupils and the teachings were clearly based on an extreme interpretation of the Koran. That a good number of families had opted to send their children to an establishment of that kind says a lot about the challenges our societies are facing. 

We have to be honest about those challenges. That does not mean we are against the freedom of religion. It simply means we are not blind about the dangers that might come from the radical elements in our communities.  

Do not underestimate Trump´s chances

The snags Hillary Clinton is facing – obvious today again as we got the results of the primaries in Kentucky and Oregon – do not augur well. She will have an extremely tough time fighting against Donald Trump´s populist campaign. Hillary will win the Democratic nomination, no doubt about that, but she will need a very well planned battle plan, and a different personal style, closer to people´s day-to-day preoccupations, if she wants to have a chance to win the presidential election.

It is not going to be easy at all. Trump is now changing his methods, softening his discourse, building friendships all over, and making sure he looks as a top class statesman. At the same time, he will remain a major attraction for many average people who are tired of traditional politics and life-long professional politicians. It is important to recognise he will be a formidable opponent. He is in this game to win and he knows one or two things about defeating political old hands. Just ask the other guys that were competing against him in his own camp. He should not be underestimated at all. 

Progress on Syria and Libya: it should be possible

The efforts being led these days by John Kerry and Sergey Lavrov regarding Libya and Syria should be recognised. They are spending a good amount of time in Vienna and around. And they have also been wise in terms of keeping the UN on board and at the centre of the processes. If they keep this kind of engagement we should be able to see some progress. Actually, when it comes to Libya, it is now obvious that things have started to move in the right direction. The EU should come out clearly in support of these efforts. That should be done as a single voice. Through the EU High Representative, if possible.