A little ray of hope in Syria

The cessation of hostilities in Syria is creating some space for hope. That in itself is already an encouraging development. 

Saudi Arabia´s military muscle

Yesterday Saudi Arabia launched the military exercise called Northern Thunder. Most of us, in the West, did not notice it. As we did not realise that military contingents from around twenty states are participating in this major deployment. Among them, there are several African States – Chad, Morocco, Mauritania, Senegal, Sudan, Tunisia are some of them – as well as Asian countries, including Pakistan and Malaysia. Many of these soldiers had to be brought to Saudi Arabia at a very high cost. It is not cheap to deploy troops. I am sure Saudi Arabia has contributed quite a bit to make the voyages possible.

Beyond the military training, I see a strong political message. And I think it is important to keep that in mind. 

Supporting a deeper dialogue with Iran

The outcome of the general elections in Iran – let me call them general elections – seems to be quite favourable to the reformists. That´s certainly a very positive development. They represent the segments of society that understand that Iran´s economic development requires a less rigid approach to domestic politics and also better relations with the international community.

It is true that the country still has a long way to go in terms of taking full advantage of its educated youth as well as of its resources. But today´s step is, by Iran´s standards, a big leap in the right direction. Our role, in the European space, is to encourage more commercial exchanges with Iran and to underline the importance of enhancing our political dialogue with the authorities in Tehran. 

Some good news from Africa

The people of the Central African Republic are tired of conflict. They have shown it a few days ago when they voted in the second round of the presidential elections. It was a peaceful day and the outcome of the elections was accepted by all the key players and also by the general population.

The former Prime-Minister Faustin Touadéra, a man I know well and have always appreciated, won the elections. It was in many ways a surprise. He was not the candidate the observers were betting on. But he got it. Peacefully. Constitutionally. And I only hope this means we have initiated the national reconciliation path.  

Austria, Hungary and the European Union

Today, I should put on record two events. They are both indicative of the state of mind that prevails in some political quarters in Europe.

The first took place in Vienna. The Austrian government invited nine foreign ministers from the Balkan states to a meeting to discuss the mass arrival of immigrants. Basically, the point was to agree on measures that would contain and reduce the transit of new waves of people through the now commonly called Balkan Corridor. The Austrians did not invite the Greeks and the Germans to the meeting. Greece plays however a critical role in the crisis. And Germany is by far the largest player in the region, including on migration issues. This disregard towards Greece and Germany should be seriously criticised. As we must also censure the fact that the European Commission was not properly involved.

Austria has sent a very simple message: we do not believe in a common European response.

The second event took place not far from Vienna. Next door, in Budapest. The Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, made an official statement, with all the pomp and ceremony, about the immigration and refugee issues. The key message was that a national referendum will be organised in Hungary on the acceptance of refugees. More specifically, to consult the Hungarians about the decision of the European Commission to share the burden through a system of quotas. The referendum will not take place until late in the year, most likely by October. It´s a smart move against the EU and a common approach. During the next few months, Orban will have an argument to remain outside any EU debate on the matter: he is waiting for the results of the popular consultation in his country. And nobody can say he is not right. It will sound as anti-democratic.

But we can say, in the meantime, that the State room where he made today´s statement was very well decorated. In the background there was a beautiful line of Hungary´s national flags. Plenty of them. And there was no EU flag around. It would have certainly spoiled the view.

Time to denounce the dangerous leaders

Leadership matters a lot in politics. Good leaders make miracles happen. Bad leadership leads to national tragedies. And now that the world is closely connected, it also results into regional and international disasters.

The role of those who have a public voice is to promote the good leaders and be implacable with the bad ones. Regarding the latter, we should be able, on a regular basis, to identify which ones are the most dangerous leaders of the moment and be very clear about it.

In this case, today´s question would be: who are, at the moment, the five or six leaders that can cause the most harm to peace, security and the basic rights of many? Who should be in the warning list? 

Connecting

The social networks bring your friends back from the past and make you young again. 

David Cameron will keep fighting

The readers have certainly noticed I am not a strong supporter of David Cameron. However, I should immediately add that I was very impressed by his fighting spirit during the EU Council meeting that ended last night. He had a clear understanding of the goals he wanted to achieve and was tireless in pursuing them. Then, in the end, he met the media and communicated very well. The words were the right ones, the political messages easy to grasp and to summarize, and the tone was strong, intense and exultant. I thought, as I was listening to him, that he will be a formidable campaigner to the UK-in-the-EU vote. It will be a difficult political battle. In my opinion, he starts it with a very high chance of defeat. But he has shown that he can turn things around. It will not be easier. But he will fight and it will be an interesting period to observe.

Three questions about the Brexit

Today´s summit meeting of the EU Council is publicised by some of the key leaders as a decisive one. Why? Well, because of the UK´s demands. The threat of Brexit, the exit of the UK from the EU. Mr Cameron is asking for a new deal between his country and the rest of the EU. He needs it as a major contribution to his political survival strategy. If he can convince the British voters he has managed to twist the European arm that will consolidate him as party leader and also as Prime Minister.

There are many questions that could be raised about all this. But I will save my readers´ sanity and will only mention three of them.

First, this is meeting number 25. I explain. In the last five years or so, twenty-four meetings of the top EU leaders have been presented as critical. Today we have one more. There is a problem here: the frequency of “decisive meetings” has been too high. Maybe Europe is just moving from crisis to crisis, like a dangerously sick person.

Second, Brexit is above all a British issue. They are the ones that should decide if they want to keep the membership or not. Europe will continue and its construction, at a slower or faster pace, depending of the policy areas, is on the way. The leaders and the people of the UK should make their minds. Either they are in and participate in the vast majority of the common projects or they are out and sign some kind of free trade agreement with the EU.

Third, it is almost certain Cameron will lose the support of the British voters. The chances of a Brexit are very high. The EU cannot fall on its knees to please the British. Short of that, they will opt for the exit door.

I am one of those who believe it is time to be clear. Clear vis-à-vis our own citizens and clear regarding David Cameron´s political games. 

Boutros-Ghali: a diplomat with strong views

Boutros Boutros-Ghali passed away early in the day. And I feel compelled to say a few words of homage about my former boss. I served as his representative in The Gambia and later in Tanzania. And I want to remember him as a man of courage. He was not afraid of speaking up to the permanent members of the UN Security Council. Actually, he said one day, after he had left the UN, that he regretted not having been aggressive enough with the members of Security Council. In his opinion, the Council had not responded appropriately to the major crises of the time, Rwanda and the Balkans. But we cannot say it was his fault. He was very clear in his messages. In the case of the US, he had some difficult encounters with President Bill Clinton and his senior officers. He insisted but failed to convince Clinton that the situation in Rwanda was extremely serious. Clinton did not appreciate Boutros-Ghali´s critiques. And the mandate was not renewed. The power of the veto did the job

Erdogan and Putin

The tensions between Turkey and Russia are peaking. And this is an extremely worrisome development. In the case of Turkey, the Russian support to the Assad regime in Syria and the recent progression of Syrian Kurdish fighters, who are getting closer to the border are North of Aleppo are both seen as a matter of acute national interest. Regarding Russia, the destabilising of President Erdogan´s political power is a matter of retaliation – and revenge is deeply important in the political traits that define the Russian nationalistic soul – as well as a major chance to undermine the NATO alliance. In such circumstances, the stakes are very high for both sides. And the escalation seems unavoidable, with an incredible array of dramatic consequences. More so because the leaders of each side have an immense political ego. They are more inclined to fall whilst fighting than to accept compromise. And that´s the best recipe for a greater tragedy in the region and beyond.   

Cameron´s doomed days

As we come closer to the next summit meeting of the EU Council, on 18 and 19 February, the Brexit issue gets more attention. It will be one of the heavy subjects on the table during the meeting. And I am afraid David Cameron will not get more concessions from the heads of state and government than those already suggested by Donald Tusk. It will be difficult for him to manage that. The popular media in the UK thinks that Tusk´s proposals do not go far enough. That opinion will have a significant impact on the voters. And I am getting convinced that Cameron is going to be one of the great losers of all this process. His political future is very much at stake. He will not be able to survive a contrarian vote.

"Cessation of hostilies"

After today´s announcement of a “cessation of hostilities” in Syria, some commentators have shown a lot of scepticism about the effective implementation of such an agreement. The doubts are even stronger because the declaration was basically a joint statement by the US and Russia, with no apparent or implicit involvement by the Syrian parties to the conflict. 

My position on this proclamation is clear. I want to believe that the Americans and the Russians are indeed committed to creating the very minimal conditions for the political negotiations to take off the ground. I also think they would like some kind of humanitarian assistance to be facilitated. Assistance is urgently required in many areas of the country. Some pause on the war would make it possible to reach many of those in need.

As I am ready to accept the good faith of the declaration, I should also add that we are still far from the beginning of a true peace process. But at least there is some movement now and one has to clutch whatever little candle of hope is flaming. Even when the flame is pretty tenuous. 

Political inaction on shore

On the mass movements across the Mediterranean Sea, we know where the immediate problem lies. It is in the coastal cities and towns of Turkey. The smugglers of people across the water do their business in those places. That´s where they should be stopped. Not at sea. They do not board the boats the migrants and refugees use to cross. They remain in Turkey. Dealing with them is above all a matter for the police. But the question is not related to police´s inaction or lack of means to operate. It is very much associated with politics. The police follow their political masters. And the masters, for reasons we can guess, have decided to let it go. 

We decided to ignore South Sudan

South Sudan has now joined the list of the forgotten crises.

The country was the darling of the international community three or four years ago. In the meantime, it experienced a very serious civil war, hundreds of thousands of displacements and a plunge into political chaos. In many ways, such violent crisis could have been prevented if the UN and the key partners of the country had played a more courageous supporting role.

Now, South Sudan is trying to move out of violence. The needs are huge. Including, to start with, the ones related to basic humanitarian assistance. But the donors are not responding. The UN Humanitarian Coordinator has just revealed that the humanitarian appeal for South Sudan remains outside the radar screen, nobody is paying attention to it. Indeed, he stated that only 2% of the required humanitarian funds have been raised so far.

It is time to be a bit louder about South Sudan again.

Merkel´s words on the Russians

I commend Angela Merkel for her very strong words condemning the current Russian military operations in Syria. That´s the type of statement we would like to hear from other EU and US leaders. 

In addition, let me be clear about the Russians. We need them to resolve the Syrian tragedy. We should recognise their role in the region. But we should also add that their ongoing policy options and actions are wrong. They only contribute to dramatically augment the suffering, to expand and prolong the humanitarian disaster and to make the Damascus regime believe they can win the war. 

Aleppo

The Russian forces deployed in Syria are now focussed on getting the city of Aleppo and its surrounding areas under Assad´s control. That´s were their current main effort is. Not on the Islamic State terrorists. As they do that, tens of thousands of people move out of the area and try to seek refuge in Turkey. This gives the Russians another reason to go for Aleppo: it ends up by increasing the pressure on the Turks. And, as we know, the Russians have an axe to grind with Turkey. This is a way of doing it. All this aggravates the geopolitical tensions and makes a political solution even more remote. Actually, at this stage I see almost no chance to get the Geneva talks back on the agenda. The bet seems, once again, to be on a military response to an inhumane chaotic situation. 

About the Syrian donors´meeting

One facet of the recent big pledging conferences, like the one of yesterday in London, convened to mobilise resources for Syrian refugees, is that most of promises never materialise. Countries make commitments, and in some cases, very substantial ones. But the disbursements, in many cases, are well below the pledges. And in other cases, countries do announce contributions that never materialise.

One of the reasons is that the monies that are declared during the conferences have never been discussed with the country´s finance minister. They come out of the foreign minister´s mouth. He or she might be a very influential and strong politician. But in the end, funds are the prerogative of finance ministers.

I have seen many disappointments after these types of meetings. One gets the impression that the call was very successful only to realise later on that most of funds never materialise. That creates frustration. It also gives room for very serious misunderstandings between the authorities from the receiving countries and the intended beneficiaries. The latter do not see the support promised and then get to believe that the money was misappropriate by the administering authorities. 

Cameron might lose the referendum on the EU

My column of today in the Visão magazine on line is about the relations between the EU and the UK. The text is in Portuguese, of course. My point is that the proposals made by the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, should be supported. Some EU leaders think that Tusk has gone too far in terms of concessions. It is not really the case. He has been able to put together some generic rules that can be used by Britain and by any other country. They are based on David Cameron´s demands but do not give him everything he had asked for. Now it is up to the British Prime Minister to be able to convince his party and the voters that there is enough “reform” to justify the continuation of the UK within the EU. And that´s a big challenge. At this stage, I am afraid the referendum will be lost. Brexit is today a possibility. Cameron has to fight very hard to prevent that.  

On UN peace operations

Many political and military leaders are very much influenced by their experiences in the stabilisation missions as implemented in Afghanistan and Iraq and would like the UN peace missions to be somehow modelled on those experiences. That explains also why there is these such a push for more robust UN peacekeeping operations and for enforcement campaigns.

It was a bit the same after the operations in the Balkans in the 1990s. 

Supporting the political process in Libya

We shouldn´t lose sight of the appalling crisis that is going on in Libya. There are some good people out there, trying to bring things under control and the European powers – or what remains of such powers… – should get much more engaged and supportive. They should start by giving leverage to the efforts the UN is pursuing in order to bring law, order and basic human rights to Libya.

The alternative is further chaos at our doorsteps, growing menaces, more people smuggling into Europe, and above all leaving the space ready for the violent extremists to win the game.