#Brexit, what a crazy idea

Brexit. Leave. Leave might be a question of opinion. Fine! But it has become obvious it is a sinister, and above all, stupid opinion.

China and the waters

Global geostrategic changes go very fast these days, thanks to the Chinese leadership.

Look at this, for instance.

Back in 2010 – just yesterday, one could say – the Chinese corporations had invested in about 10 of the 50 largest deep-water ports of the world. Now, in 2019, Chinese money is invested in over 30 of those ports. In addition, the Chinese merchant marine is currently the world’s second largest.

Becoming a great maritime power might be a Chinese dream, in the leaders’ minds and political agenda. It is also a major strategic move, to be added to other ambitious, huge initiatives China is implementing, at sea and over land. The overall goal is to be number one by 2049, the centennial year of their revolution. That’s the way the Chinese leadership, and above all, President Xi, see the world of tomorrow: China as the pivot, the centre of the international order.

Europe and China

Brexit issues made us lose sight of the joint meeting on 26 March between Xi Jinping, Emmanuel Macron, Angela Merkel and Jean-Claude Juncker. The main credit for such summit should be given to the French President. He took the initiative and was able to convince the Chinese President to accept it.

Xi Jinping was visiting France. President Macron´s message to him was friendly but unambiguous: you should not intent to establish good relations with any of the European countries, including the larger ones, without considering the EU context and the fact the countries are part of a political union. Member States keep their independence, that is very much true, but they are also inserted in a larger system of common interests.

I see three messages in all this. First, there is a balance to be respected between individual and common European political objectives. Second, no bilateral action undertaken by China should be perceived as undermining the EU´s unity. This latter point must also be practised by the European countries. When dealing with China, they must keep the concern for EU´s cohesion as a priority. The third message is about power and leverage. Europe can only be able to respond to China’s domineering approach if its Member States act together. The opposite, to believe they can be treated by China on an equal footing is either political naïveté or a manifestation of deceitful policies.

The four-sided summit has also helped to prepare for the next high-level meeting between the EU and China that will take place on 9 April.

Liberalism is not a useful banner

In today’s Europe, the banner around “liberal values” does not attract enough support. Everything that is associated with “liberalism” is seen as elitist and globalist. At least, it is perceived as unclear, a concept difficult to grasp and distant from the daily concerns people are confronted with. It cannot be used to win votes during the forthcoming European elections.  

UK, the land of the confusion

The “will of the people” is no longer represented in the British Parliament. Both parties are deeply divided within their own ranks. The image of their leaders is not good at all. Both have lost great chunks of credibility. Both, not just Theresa May. But her case is even more significant because she is the Prime Minister of the land.

In normal circumstances, such dramatic situation would bring a call for fresh elections. That’s not the case this time. Everything is so confusing in British politics that even this very traditional move is not implemented. The “friends” of Theresa May are just positioning themselves to replace her, without going back to the voters.

However, nobody knows what will happen in the next days and weeks. We might have some clarity by the end of this week. It is indispensable.

Tomorrow or today?

Tomorrow, tomorrow, tomorrow. A very political word. Also, a tactical concept, a guide for inaction and avoiding hard decisions, moments of truth.

Or, so often, tomorrow should take place today, make it happen. That’s leadership.

EU Council on Brexit and China

The European Council meeting of yesterday and today was not an easy affair. But it went well. The Heads of State and Government have shown a deep commitment to the discussions. They could agree on a response to Theresa May’s request for a delay in the Brexit date – and this was a very delicate matter, that took many hours to be discussed – and on an approach towards China. In both cases, the twin concerns were to keep the EU united and, at the same time, to leave the door open for a balanced relationship.

The member States might have different views about important issues. However, no one wants to rock the boat. And all understand that by reaching a common understanding about their shared interests they can then have a clear - and stronger - position towards the outside world. Collectively, their interests are leveraged. 

Again about Europe and Africa

My presentation of yesterday at the European Political Strategy Centre, a think tank directed attached to the President of the European Commission, was about the future of the partnership between Europe and Africa. The conference room filled up. Very senior people from the Commissioners’ Cabinets and from the External Action Service and Development Cooperation attended and asked questions, at the end of my long introductory speech. 

I could notice that there is a genuine interested in establishing a more constructive rapport between the Continents. I think I can say these key people understand that both regions will continue to be closely linked, for good or for bad, notwithstanding the heavy presence of new players in the African scene. In that case, it is better to deepen the cooperation and do it along strategic lines and with goals that respond to the interests of Europe and Africa. For this, a frank process of dialogue, at different levels of authority, is essential. The question is not whether one is hopeful or pessimist about the future. The point is to be very much aware of the immense challenges that both sides face and see how they can be addressed through shared values and joint action.

Europe and Africa

In my discussion today with senior EU officials, I asked them  to take home 7 major issues:

1.     Population explosion

 .   State legitimacy and Human Security

3.     Understanding State Fragility

4.     Livestock: do not leave behind the shepherds

5.     The Dragon has a plan: China in Africa

6.     Dialogue, dialogue, dialogue, supported by the EU and Member States diplomatic / trade / security machineries

7.     Tell the story: keep repeating the appropriate narratives. Be frank and positive

Sometimes, it is necessary to say no

I fear a people that values blind obedience. And history has demonstrated how far blind obedience can take us on the road to tragedy.

Responding to Germany and to AKK

AKK, full name, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, the new leader of the CDU governing party in Germany, is more concerned with the growing influence of the AfD – Alternative for Germany, the extreme-right, ultranationalist party – than with European affairs. That explains, to a very large extent, the way she responded to Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance proposals. She was above all writing to her constituency within CDU and to many of those voters that have decided to move their support to AfD during the last few years. One of the things she must achieve is to bring that support back to CDU. Her leadership is a lot about that objective.

All that is fine. We know that party politics is primarily a domestic matter. However, AKK’s approach is not a balanced one. Germany is a key player within the EU. As such, it ought to show leadership and ambition on European matters. That is particularly needed now, when the European elections are already taking shape in the near horizon and a new leading team will take over in Brussels and be directing the institutions for the next five years. Moreover, this is a time of major political challenges, both within Europe and in the international scene. Internally, Europe as a project is seriously questioned by a bad mixture of populist sentiments and national fragilities. Externally, the risks to European interests are many, complex, simultaneous and compound. They come from some neighbours – these are always the most dangerous threats. But in the connected world we live in, the concept of neighbourhood needs to be reassessed. And the threats also come from unsettling changes of policy at the level of our traditional allies.

There is thus plenty of room to be leader about. That should be one of the messages to be sent back to Germany and to AKK.

Christchurch, New Zealand

The terrorist attacks against the people attending religious services in two Christchurch mosques must be condemned with the strongest words possible. There is no room for ambiguities. This type of violence is abhorrent to the most fundamental values the modern societies share. It should have no place in today’s world.

Racism of any kind, terrorism of any nature, blind killings of innocent people, these are some of the most heinous crimes one can commit. They must be punished with the appropriate severity. And the leaders must say and do the right things that can give comfort to the victims and their families and help to restore the confidence within the communities.

In New Zealand, the Prime Minister has been exemplary in the way she has responded to this very traumatic crisis. Congratulations to PM Jacinda Ardern. And also our deepest sympathies to all concerned, those directly affected and the people of New Zealand.

Good news from Guinea-Bissau

We don’t write about Guinea-Bissau. T is never in the news. It’s one of those lost lands, somewhere in the map of Africa. Some better-informed people know the country is very undeveloped and that poverty has been compounded by serious political turmoil for over twenty years. And that’s about it.

But this time, the news coming from Bissau is encouraging. The country went through general elections this past Sunday. The process was credible enough. And a governing coalition is taking shape.

I can only hope that this will bring the much-needed political stability Guinea-Bissau needs. And I leave here a word of support.  

Keeping the EU project together

For those who have not yet understood it – also for those who might have lost sight of it –, it seems important to remember that the safeguard of the European common project is a paramount goal and a topmost concern. Anything that might threaten the unity of the project – and its coherence – will be fought.

That’s the way leaders have been looking at the Brexit saga, a process that, notwithstanding the confusion that prevails in the British Parliament, should be completed as negotiated. And without any significant delay. The departure of the United Kingdom is regrettable, no doubt. But it has been the choice of the British people and that choice must be implemented without menacing the integrity of the EU.

There is no concession to be made when that integrity is at stake.

Brexit, stage two. Next, please!

Theresa May lost the vote again, for a second time. And I would add, we, the Europeans, have also been defeated. It is in our common interest, for the British side and our own, in the EU, to have a properly organised exit and a transition period that is as smooth as possible. Anything else, specially a no-deal situation, would be a major shock. It would have an extremely negative impact on both economies and would bring serious disruptions to a relationship that has many dimensions and is very deep.

I am sure that the message that will come out of tomorrow’s vote at Westminster will be very clear. No deal is not a solution, that will be the outcome of the vote. Brexit, yes, but with an agreement, that will certainly be the Parliamentarians decision.

It will become pressing clear in the next weeks that there is a possible deal on the table. That’s the one that failed to pass today and had already been voted against two months ago. My guess, as a possible way out, is that Theresa May and the Europeans leaders will massage the draft deal once more and add a few lines to an extra new document. Then, Theresa May will bring it back to Westminster for a third round of votes. And, to our surprise, the House will go for it. 

What I am suggesting is an adaptation of the rule of three, the famous belief that a trio of events is more humorous, satisfying, or effective than just two.

These are very new times, a unique moment in the European history, and we can expect the implausible. 

Macron and the Germans

The CDU Leader’s response to Emmanuel Macron shows there is a big gap between the German right-wing vision of Europe’s future and the more centrist proposals made by the French President. And, in many ways, the CDU’s views, as expressed by Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, reflect the opinion we can find in the German streets.

They also send a clear message to Macron. We can cooperate but we do not belong to the same political family. And we, Germans, we lead our grouping of parties in the European institutions.

Macron must feel a bit alone tonight.  

Joint carrier or a smoke screen?

A joint aircraft carrier, as proposed yesterday by the new CDU party leader, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (Germany)? To be funded by the European Commission or by a joint pot made up of contributions coming from 27 countries? And what for, that carrier? What are the vision and the strategy, when it comes to the matter of Europe’s Defence Strategy?

Brexit: the crazy week ahead

For many of us, Brexit is a baffling oddity. It is like leaving a huge compound to go and live next door in a minuscule studio flat. A flat that basically depends on the energy supplied by the big neighbour.

It is a mad project that could only be fuelled by self-centred, delusional politicos.

It was, since day one, such a bizarre idea that most British intellectuals couldn´t take it seriously. For that reason, they didn´t bother to campaign against it. They were so much convinced that people would vote the eccentricity down. They did not take into account the obsessed militancy of the Brexit nuts and other xenophobes.

Are you a right-winger?

Strange times in Europe. For instance, no politician wants to be seen as a right-winger. Today, that was the case of the very retrograde Jacob Rees-Mogg, one of the leaders of the anti-EU sentiments at Westminster. The honourable gentleman said that “the Conservative government is not right-wing”. He even considered such appellation as abusive. An epithet that hurts, it seems.

He might be joking.

So, who accepts these days the right-wing label? Only, the Polish Law and Justice Party? Or, just Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz? Or Matteo Salvini and his crowd?

I am no longer sure they do.

Interesting, isn’t it?

Women's Rights

The International Women’s Day is above all about the rights of women and girls, their full recognition and the equality of opportunities and rewards between both genders. It can be said with flowers, and nice words, but the important point is very clear: this is a struggle that is far from being won. It must be fought every day, as well as on this special calendar date. It is, in many ways and for extremely important reasons, the most important task of our times.

Macron and the European liberalism

In today’s Europe, people do not understand what politicians mean when they say liberalism or a liberal order. The concept has lost its meaning, in the minds of the citizens. It is in many ways associated with elitism and all the bad things that come from globalisation. It cannot mobilise people. It is a mistake to insist on it when speaking about change and a better future for Europe.

And, unfortunately, that is the label that President Macron risks to see attached to his proposals.

Kicking Orbán out

The European People’s Party (EPP, centre-right grouping of EU political parties) would make a serious mistake if its leaders decide against the expulsion from the group of Viktor Orbán’s party, Fidesz.

Recently, Fidesz and above all, its leader, the Prime Minister of Hungary, have launched a vicious campaign against Jean-Claude Juncker, who is a prominent member of the EPP family. That’s not only incomprehensible but is also totally unacceptable, as the campaign is tainted by lies and inspired by anti-Semitic sentiments. Basically, Orbán tries to draw dividends from his fabrications against George Soros. He wants to extend the negative image he has managed to build of Soros to the President of the European Commission. Orbán’s tactics consist in inventing an enemy and then concentrate the voters’ attention on destroying such person.

It is politics without any type of scruples. The man is very dangerous.

That comes in addition to Orbán’s domestic crusades against the freedom of the press, the autonomy of the academic institutions and his repeated attacks against the independence of the NGOs.

He does not belong to the centre-right politics. He is an extremist. Therefore, he should join the extreme right circles. The sooner that message is sent to him, and all, the better.

Macron and his European vision

This evening, the French President addressed a message to all Europeans about the future of the European Union. It's a very clear agenda for action. And a strong signal that the EU calls for leadership and renewal. A warning, in many ways, but with militancy and optimism.

The message can be read in English in the following site:


https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2019/03/04/for-european-renewal.en

Adversaries and enemies

Always blame your adversary but concentrate your fighting power on your enemy. 

No problem, as long as we are true to ourselves

In matters of politics, it’s OK to fail, if we have genuinely tried.

It's all Theresa May's fault!

In the UK, key Conservative opinion makers are now in a campaign to place all the blame on Prime Minister Theresa May.

Uncertainty, even confusion, and growing resentment define the current British political climate. Like the proverbial meteorology of those Isles, the climate around Brexit is foggy and unpleasant.

And they are openly saying, it is May’s fault! They add then: it comes from her lack of true enthusiasm for the exit ideals. Those Conservatives – and they are quite influential in the mainstream right-wing media, not just in the tabloid sheets – want to divert people’s attention from the inescapable issue, meaning, that the UK needs to agree on an exit deal with the EU. And that inevitable deal is the one that has been on the table since November 2018.

They also want to present some crazies – Jacob Rees-Mogg, Boris Johnson, David Davis, Dominic Raab, Ian Duncan Smith, among others – as true patriots, people that can take over from Theresa May and move the UK to the centre of the world.

Really? Well, with their Victorian way of looking at Britain and Europe, they might be able to bring the country back to the XIX Century. And make it imperial again!

Kim's vital agenda

You meet, negotiate and believe in Kim Jong-un at your own risk. And that’s a very high level of risk, I should add. Nevertheless, it must be done, and surely, with no illusion about the person who is sitting on the other side of the table.

Kim’s ultimate objective is to remain in power. He has no other option, if one considers the criminal and violent actions that he has behind him. Power means impunity. Absolute power means total impunity. In such circumstances, he is determined to decisively tackle anything that might challenge his goal.

I think he believes that the vital threat to his continued control of the North Korean system comes from the other side of the border, from South Korea. Not because of South Korea’s military might, no. It is because of the economic success and the type of society that South Korea represents. That, sooner or later, will end up by having a major impact on the attitude of the population in the North. It has the potential to be the key source of instability.  

Therefore, he wants to keep some kind of superiority vis-à-vis the South. And the only one he can bet on is on the military side. But for that, he must get the Americans out of South Korea. That’s what he is trying to achieve.

At the same time, he is also looking for an end to the economic sanctions. He knows that the sanctions bite. They make the comparison between the standards of living in the North and the South even more dangerous.

These are two elements that must remain at the centre of any future round of negotiations. And please, no illusions, no unnecessary warmth. 

The Hanoi autocrats

The outcome of the Hanoi meeting – no agreement, not even a joint final lunch, let alone a joint statement – should be seen as a reminder that diplomacy is a complex and lengthy process. It cannot just be reduced to two strong men meeting together. Moreover, when these men are markedly narcissistic leaders, well known for their inability to listen to advisors and other common mortals.

President Trump and Chairman Kim should only meet when all the preparatory work has been completed and every line of any draft agreement is ready to be blessed. The negotiations should not be directly and personally undertaken by these two autocrats. (If you prefer, call them rulers…).

Their meeting can only take place when there is a landmark to be announced or as a final step in the process. Then, they sit together, offer all the possible photo opportunities, and give credibility and trust to the agreement achieved by their respective negotiators.

The only problem is that both leaders are unique cases. They only trust their own judgement like any disastrous strongman we have known in the history books.