Combatting radicalisation

There is an EU Commissioner for Migration and Home Affairs. Among his responsibilities, I would underline the following: “identifying where the EU can make a real difference in fighting terrorism and radicalisation, with an emphasis on addressing the problem of foreign fighters”.

That sounds good.

And there is indeed a lot of work that has been done by different EU players and also in coordination with the member States during the last two years, after the approval on 15 January 2014 of a plan under the title of “Preventing Radicalisation to Terrorism and Violent Extremism: Strengthening the EU's Response”. The problem seems to be that the European public opinion is not aware of all this. The citizens have the impression that there isn´t really an approach to deal with radicalisation.

I think it is time to inform them. That´s another way of combatting the growing fear. 

UN on Israel´s settlements

Today the UN Secretary-general expressed his concerns regarding the continued expansion of Israeli settlements in occupied territories. And he called for a freeze of the expansion. There is nothing very new here, but it is important it has been said by the top UN official.

The Prime Minister of Israel did not like Ban Ki-moon´s words. I can understand that. What I cannot accept is Benjamin Netanyahu´s official written statement accusing the SG of “encouraging terrorism”.  

Portuguese presidential elections

The Portuguese voted yesterday to elect a new Head of State. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, a law professor and a TV personality – for many years he commented every Sunday on politics and general affairs on a national news channel and became a household name – was voted in as the next President.

For part of the public opinion he is seen as a moderate right-winger. In fact, he is an open-minded conservative, very liberal in many aspects. In other societies, he would be labelled as a man of the centre-left. Actually, many of those on the Portuguese right would be considered as pretty progressive by the standards of several rightist parties in other countries of Europe. And, in the US, Donald Trump would call them “dangerous leftists”…

Quick note on Davos 2016

Davos 2016 is now completed. The last footprints on the snow are just disappearing. But the intellectual and political footprints that marked four days of discussions will remain for a good while. We can say a lot of bad things about Davos and its crowds. But we have also to recognise that the annual meetings offer a special opportunity to reflect about the present and the future. Some of the best minds engage in the debates. And that´s the big plus of the Davos initiative.

There are many take-home ideas that came out of the many sessions, dialogues and presentations. I would like to refer to three of them.

First, today´s world faces a good deal of simultaneous crises. This combination of very profound challenges carries a new level of risks, an unprecedented hodgepodge of perils. 

Second, the nations and the international institutions are not prepared to respond to the complexities. That makes everything much more dangerous and unpredictable. It also contributes in a very big way to the discredit of leaders and the international system, including the UN.

Third, we can expect a very serious increase of the inequalities. As we move into more sophisticated forms of production and economic activity, the income and wealth differences will increase. On one side, we will see those who can take advantage of the new technologies and of the global system of exchanges. On the other, there will masses of individuals and families left behind. Power and fragility will be the sides of the future. And we can expect that people will not be ready to accept it with just a smile.

Tunisia needs Europe´s attention

The Tunisian youth is again on the streets. Five years after the beginning of the democratic transition many things have been achieved in terms of freedom, human rights and gender. The country remains the only example, in the Arab region, of a peaceful and legitimate change. But the economic opportunities are still missing. It is dreadfully hard to find a job. The terrorist attacks have kept the tourists away. The complex and dangerous situation in the neighbourhood, with Libya on one side and Algeria on the other, is not helping either. Many young Tunisians have actually been radicalised and about five thousand of them have joined the ranks of the barbaric organization that calls itself “Islamic State”.

In addition, there are serious governance issues that have not been addressed. Corruption is widespread. All these problems have created the impression that there is no future for the younger generations. The overall sentiment is one of deep frustration. Therefore, people are back to the streets, and again in very large numbers.

I have called on several occasions for assistance to the Tunisian democracy. The country needs investments, trade agreements, gender-balanced skills development, security assistance and tourists. It also requires a major overhaul of its public administration. EU should focus on Tunisia. France has promised today one billion euros of financial assistance to be disbursed during the next five years. But Paris should also be the Tunisian advocate in the European institutions. Europe cannot let Tunisia down.

The Syrian negotiations should go ahead

The negotiations on Syria are scheduled for next week in Geneva. The formal leadership of the process rests with the UN. And it is in the interest of the UN to have a diverse representation of the factions that are engaged in the conflict, with the exception of the most extreme, such as the so-called Islamic State and the al-Qaeda inspired Jabhat al-Nusra. Everybody else who is prepared to discuss should be around the place. Not necessarily, at the beginning, around the same table, but part of the process for sure.

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Russia and other countries are trying to prevent some movements from being invited. We could expect that. It´s consistent with their interests. But it´s up to the UN to say no to that kind of pressure.

There are no saints in the Syria disaster. This is a tragedy of devils. But those among them that believe they can negotiate, give and take, should be in. In these matters you confront and discuss with your enemies, including the worst among them. And you appreciate their willingness to be around. That´s actually the difference between them and the terrorists. A terrorist is a criminal that accepts no room for a compromise.

On Iran and the lifting of the sanctions

The nuclear-related sanctions against Iran have been lifted. The country is back in terms of business with the West. It is also open for a new type of political engagement with our part of the world. All that can only be seen as good news. Besides the economic opportunities this new situation opens, it is also a contribution to a more balanced distribution of power in the Middle East. The next step is to help the country and Saudi Arabia to normalise their diplomatic relations. It´s in the interest of both countries and also to the advantage of conflict resolution in the region. 

Taiwan´s elections and post-electoral realism

The people of Taiwan voted heavily for the opposition, both in terms of the presidential and legislative elections. Opposition leader Tsai Ing-wen has been elected as Taiwan’s next president. She will be the first woman to lead the country.

In the past, Ms. Tsai was the leading Taiwanese negotiator with China. Therefore she knows how important is to keep the line open with Beijing, even if the majority of her support comes from those who would like to see Taiwan become an independent country. It is a fine balancing act that is required from her but political realism leaves no other option for Taiwan. Anything else would further complicate the tense situation that is already a key feature of the geopolitical situation in East Asia. 

Terrorism in Ouagadougou

Another day, another terrorist attack. This time the target is an international hotel in Ouagadougou, the capital of Burkina Faso. In the evening, there were a couple of explosions outside the hotel and then a group of armed men stormed the facility. At this stage it is still a developing crisis. I am afraid it will end as a very tragic event.

Burkina Faso is a good example in Africa. The country has just completed a democratic transition. Elections were disputed with fair play and the results accepted by everyone. A new President and a fresh government have just been inaugurated. All seems very promising in a country that has a very young population, well educated and where the religious and ethnic diversity has not been played by the politicians. It is a pretty tolerant and open society.

It is also next door to Mali and part of the Sahel region. These are very sensitive areas.

Tonight´s sad events in Ouagadougou are just a reminder, a very dramatic one, of the dangers that many countries are facing these days. The fight against terrorism is now one of the top priorities and does call for an international supporting mechanism. Countries like Burkina Faso need and deserve such support. 

They are often wrong but the salary is great

My daily tasks include a close scrutiny of the financial analysts’ opinions and forecasts. And I am very often amazed. The spectrum of views is so wide and the predictions are so often off track! With time, their forecasts are systematically contradicted by the facts, particularly at times like the present one when the unknowns are many. But they always have a good excuse. And they earn good salaries. All that makes me wonder, now and then, if I have not chosen the wrong career path.