Hong Kong and the fire wall

The people of Hong Kong are very brave. In addition, they might be giving some sleepless nights to President Xi and the leadership circle in Beijing. Xi Jinping and his inner group are probably asking themselves if this type of mass movement could one day happen in any of the big cities of Mainland China.

We might think that is a very remote possibility. That mass demonstrations will not occur in the Mainland. That the Communist leaders will keep strengthening the police and security controls, as they have been doing. They will also black out all the information regarding the protests in Hong Kong, as they did today and in the last few days.

But one never knows. There are many giant cities in China and lots of people are now travelling abroad and seeing other realities. Including many young Chinese professionals, who have studied abroad or are still studying in Japan, Thailand, Australia, Europe, Canada and the US.

Beijing might say all this unrest is caused by foreign powers. But they know that is not the case. I trust the leaders do not believe in their own discredited propaganda. They are very much aware that things are changing rapidly all over the world and that no fire wall can keep the human aspiration for freedom on just one side of the barrier. Sooner or later, they are afraid, the opening of the wall will happen.

Sudan, the people and the Western interests

Not too long ago, during my time in the Sahel Region, I met regularly with Sudanese community villagers, men and women, as well as with officials. I had also to deal with the security and humanitarian consequences of the Janjaweed militias, the armed groups doing the dirty work in Darfur at the service of Omar al-Bashir. I gained then a lot of admiration for the people of Sudan and felt deeply their aspiration for security and democracy. I also learned how strategic the Khartoum leadership could be, including the intelligence agencies and the generals.

The fall of al-Bashir, following the continued, widespread popular pressure, came to me as good news. But I also knew that the military and security establishment, including the militias, now operating as Rapid Support Forces (RSF), would not let it go too easily. And that is the situation today. More than a hundred people were killed last week in the capital by the military and the militias, many more were wounded or raped. The establishment cannot lose control. They have a heavy hand on the economy – on what remains of it, as most of the economy is in a state of collapse – and they are also afraid to be brought to justice due to past crimes they have been associated with. Therefore, it is the survival of the al-Bashir regime’s elite that is now at stake. They are ready to make al-Bashir and a few others pay the bill. But they do not want it to go beyond that.

The generals, including General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, the RSF boss, are closely supported by the Saudis, the Egyptian President and the Military, and the United Arab Emirates leadership. The generals have sent Sudanese armed men to fight the Saudi-UAE war in Yemen, among other things. This is a smart alliance. It protects the Khartoum generals from pressure from the European Union and the US. For the West, the friends of our friends deserve some consideration, no doubt. That explains the relative lack of attention the Sudanese situation has generated in Brussels and other capitals. People’s rights are a beautiful thing as long as they do not interfere with Western interests in the region.

The Chinese have also strong stakes in Sudan, particularly related to the oil pipeline that crosses the country.

All this makes the Sudanese transition to democracy extremely challenging for the people of that great country.

Hormuz tensions

Yesterday’s attacks on two petrochemical tankers sailing in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz should ring strident alarm bells. They make obvious there is a strong player that is betting on escalating the tensions in the region. And the fact of the matter is that we do not know who is playing such a destructive card.

We can try to guess based on a careful analysis of some nations’ strategic interests. However, at this stage to point the finger in one direction only contributes to augment the tension. It is certainly not the wisest approach. It should not be accepted.

The UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, should step forward and offer the organisation’s good offices to carry out an independent investigation of the incidents. The International Maritime Organisation could be part of it. In the meantime, he should dispatch a Special Envoy to the region. For instance, the UN Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs. That move would help to lessen the regional political temperature.

The incoming President of the EU Commission

Regarding the choice of Jean-Claude Juncker’s successor, the informal consultations between the leaders have yet to point towards a consensus.

There was a dinner last Friday, here in Brussels, that brought together six Prime Ministers, representing the three main European political families: the centre-right, the liberals and the social-democrats. It did not go very far, except for showing that Manfred Weber, the centre-right candidate, has very little chances of getting the European Commission Presidency. He is perceived as not belonging to the circle of top leaders, Prime Ministers or former Presidents.

Today we learned that President Macron is pushing for Chancellor Angela Merkel as the best choice. But the Chancellor is not ready to move to Brussels. Her party is losing ground in Germany and she wants to remain focused on recovering the support of the German voters.

We never know, of course.

But we know that the European Commission needs a strong and clear-minded leader. One that can be respected by the heads of State and Government and projects an image that inspires trust and hope among the citizens of Europe. Also, that can talk to Presidents Trump, Putin, or Xi, with the necessary standing. He or she must be a heavyweight. Therefore, the choice is a very delicate matter.

Some people might think that in the end what matters is Emmanuel Macron’s or Angela Merkel’s opinion. That’s certainly not the case this time. Every national leader’s opinion matter. The current climate must recognise that fact. The selection must convince everyone.

Mali and its deep national crisis

This weekend there was another massacre in Mali. This time, the victims were ethnic Dogon villagers living in the central region of the country. It was another tit-for-tat action by another ethnic group, linked to the pastoralist way of life.

The country is moving into a deeper crisis. It all started in 2012, with jihadist radicals operating in the North. Now, it is a more complex situation that combines violence inspired on religious extremism with inter-community ferocious clashes and all types of banditry. To see it as mere Islam-inspired extremism is completely erroneous.

Confronted with such a grave situation, the international community, both through bilateral arrangements and the presence of UN and EU forces, has put most of the emphasis on military operations. A good number of military and police forces have been sent to Mali. That is, in my opinion, unbalanced as a response. It is a hammer approach to an extremely complex political situation.

The UN Security Council will be discussing Mali in the next few days. My message to the members of the Council is very simple: adopt a more political view of the conflict, not just a military-based line. Explore ways of promoting dialogue and joint projects between the ethnic groups of Mali. Have a hard look at economic development. Look at the way the national government addresses inclusiveness and good governance and be frank with the leaders. As friends, we must tell them, in diplomatic but clear words, that they ought to change the way they govern the country. It is there, in the governance area,  that we can find the beginning of a solution to a crisis that, otherwise, will continue to get worse.

Boris Johnson, you said?

Something must be dramatically wrong with the Conservative Party. Why do I say it? Because I see that its key members believe that the only way to beat an unsophisticated politician like Jeremy Corbyn is to elect as party leader Boris Johnson.

They know that Boris is an incurious, lazy, dilettante, person. His intellectual arrogance is also obvious. It is based on his shallow approach to politics, to the important issues, and on his narcissism.

To think that he might become the next UK Prime Minister, despite all those shortcomings, is startling. It indeed says a lot about the state of disarray within the Conservatives. And, in many ways, about the lack of realism in some segments of the British public opinion.

A new EU leadership team

The challenge the EU leaders have in front of them is to make the right decisions regarding the key positions in Brussels and at the European Central Bank. The period ahead of us is most critical for the European Union. The only real choice we have is to consolidate the project. To make it stronger and better understood by the citizens, that’s what it means. Sensible people understand why we need a more united Europe. They know what is going on in some big countries and how those countries can be a major threat to us, if we do not have a collective response.

EU is big enough to be able to weather the storm we see in the horizon. It must count on itself. At the same time, it should look for alliances and balances of interests, with a clear and consistent policy line. That includes stronger relations with Canada, in the Americas, with key African countries, with India and Japan, among others.

But above all, it must win the support of the European citizens.

European politics are changing fast, both in terms of the issues and the actors. The heads of State and government cannot ignore those changes. When selecting the new institutional heads, they must take that into account. We need people that have the courage to face the new issues, know how to communicate, project confidence and empathy, and represent the different regions of our Continent.

Let’s hope the right decisions will be taken.

European energy policy: a priority

Energy remains high in the list of strategic factors. Countries that matter pay a lot of attention to the issue. The U.S., for instance, managed to address it by investing heavily on shale rock exploration. They will become, within the next five years, the key exporter of oil, overtaking Saudi Arabia and Russia. Moreover, they are already a major exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG). All that is fossil energy. Not what people would call environmentally friendly.

Europe must take a different route. At present, the EU imports 55% of all the energy it consumes, which means around €270 billion per year.  The EU imports 87% of crude oil it consumes. It is time to invest much more money on clean sources of energy, on diversification and on energy efficiency. Including on better performing engines and engines that can run on alternative sources of energy, such as hydrogen.

Europe must pay special attention to its energy policy. That includes the links between energy use and the environment and matters related to our own strategic sovereignty.

Juncker's succession is gaining shape

Tonight, after the EU Council meeting, my bet is that the chances of seeing Margrethe Vestager as the next Commission President have seriously increased.

Manfred Weber, the leading MEP from the centre-right, the biggest political family in the European Parliament, is not getting the support of Emmanuel Macron, Pedro Sánchez and António Costa, among others. They seem prepared to veto his name. That’s not appreciated by Angela Merkel. But the German Chancellor has lost influence in the EU Council’s meetings.

Frans Timmermans, the Socialist leader, is the most experienced candidate. But the member States from Eastern Europe do not like him at all. As the current number two in Brussels, he has been tough on them, particularly on matters of rule of law and freedoms. Those leaders will say no to his nomination.

Michel Barnier is also a very respected and capable politician. His leading role during the Brexit negotiations have shown his high calibre. And he has the right posture. But he is supported by Emmanuel Macron and that’s enough for Viktor Orbán or the Italians – with Matteo Salvini on the background – to firmly opposing Barnier.  

Is there another name that could emerge in the next few days, beyond Vestager’s? It’s possible but not very likely. Unless the Council goes for one of its members, such as the Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Mark Rutte. That happened in 2004, when José Manuel Barroso was chosen out of the blue and as a way of resolving the impasse.

The next boss in Brussels

The results are out, and most of the European voters decided to support the common goal of a stronger Europe. That’s great news. Everybody knows there was a lot of anxiety about a possible shift towards the extreme parties. They have gained votes but not in a significant way.  

Tomorrow the heads of State and Government will meet in Brussels to launch the consultations about the nomination of the next European Commission President. My position on this matter is clear. Jean-Claude Juncker’s successor must come from one of the leading candidates that has competed for the European Parliament. That’s the way we can show respect for the Parliament and for the voters. The heads of national States must not bring forward someone that has not campaigned. Even if that person is somebody of Michel Barnier’s calibre.

The three main contenders are Manfred Weber, the head of European People’s Party grouping, Frans Timmermans, from the Socialist group and Margrethe Vestager, from the Liberal-centre family. They all have the potential to lead the Commission. They must be given priority attention.

My preference would go for Frans Timmermans. He has shown, as Vice-President to Juncker, strong political courage and clear ideas. He has a deep executive experience as well. But that’s not enough, when it comes to horse trading among the heads of Sate and Government.

Angela Merkel will fight for her spitzenkandidat, Manfred Weber. He is not liked by Emmanuel Macron. There will certainly be another clash between Merkel and Macron.

A woman must also get a top position in Brussels. This cannot be ignored by the leaders. It could be Vestager in the Commission or the outgoing Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaitė, who could take Donald Tusk’s position. They are both top-notch candidates.