Juncker, yes, for the EU Commission

Jean-Claude Juncker might not be a new face in the EU block. But he is an experienced and safe pair of hands. And a serious man. As leader of the most voted EU political family he should be the next President of the European Commission. He needs the support of the heads of State and government, as he also requires the votes of the socialist group. That should be possible. The Socialists could see their leader, Martin Schulz, also a very able man even if not as experience as Juncker, take a key position in the Commission as compensation. Or reward him by keeping him as President of the European Parliament, a job he has done well.

Not to appoint Juncker would give the EU voters another reason to lose faith in the European elections.

There is, of course, the problem called David Cameron. He seems to have said that Juncker´s appointment would force him to move the date of the British referendum on Europe forward, to an earlier date. And he added that the British would vote then against the EU. Maybe. But in any case, the risk is high. Sooner or later, if there is a vote in the UK and in view of the current atmosphere, the chances of a negative vote are pretty high. That would be above all a British problem.  Europe would suffer a blow but the UK would receive the full impact of the wave.

UK´s position is important but it is not a reason to stop the process of appointing the EU head forward. 

Portuguese Socialist Party is like wildfire

Politics is not for the faint of heart. You cannot be afraid of fire. And you have to be in the kitchen all the time but also keep an eye on the outside yard. Nobody is going to give you an easy time, if you are a personality in politics.

In Portugal, the leader of the Socialist Party is getting that message. His party was the number one on Sunday European elections. But with less than 32% of the votes the Socialists were not far ahead from the governing coalition, with their 28% share. It was a tiny victory.

The party´s internal opposition to the current leader moved fast. On Tuesday their main figurehead, the mayor of Lisbon, was out in the media, to announce he was ready to fight for the party´s leadership and take over from the current secretary-general. The latter was not specially amused by such a move. In particular because he had signed, last year, a peace agreement with the Lisbon mayor, the same fellow that has now decided to challenge him. Furthermore, he learned about the challenge through the media.

The mayor is playing some big cards within the party, including Mario Soares, the party´s founder and godfather. The current Secretary-general, on his side, is playing the rules. His point is that is mandate is not over, that the statutes do not foresee a change at this time. The rules are indeed clear.

But in party politics the rules book changes pretty often. Like wildfires. They go with the direction of the wind. 

The mainstream media in Russia is a major propaganda tool

The Russian media campaigns in support of President Putin have now reached new peaks of propaganda. A friend was telling me that such campaigns are presently much more intense and loud than the propaganda carried out during the last ten years of the Soviet era.

President Obama´s foreign policy options

President Obama´s speech at West Point on foreign policy must be read with great attention. It shows the direction the US is taking in international affairs. It is clear about the priorities for the next two or three years, but is even clearer about the new doctrinal approaches. Including on the use of force abroad.

I still have to find time to peruse it carefully.  But it´s worth to do it shortly.

In Europe we have to keep in mind that the only option we have at this time of our history is to continue the strong and close defence alliance with the US. We are far away from a EU defence reality. And with the nationalism dragons on the way back to the front of the European political scene it is even more advisable to have the American glue to keep us wisely together in matters of military nature.  

The leader´s image matters a lot

I have seen a few leaders in my life. And I have learned that a true political leader is someone who can combine calmness, with strength of opinion and clarity of speech. They go under terrible stress all the times but do not show it.

Tonight I observed David Cameron as he was about to enter the European Council and found him bitter, nervous and heavy of speech. I thought he looks very stressed. 

Europe needs a new narrative

Today is the day after. After the EU elections of yesterday, which produced results that many have considered “shocking”. But they are not. It is true that in several countries the anti-European parties have done very well and got quite a number of seats. They will make a lot of noise in the European Parliament and will try to take advantage of that platform to gain even more political ground at home. They can however be contained. The vast majority of new Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) is from mainstream political parties and believe in the common project. They just have to better at fighting for it in Brussels and Strasbourg. They have to work harder and be bolder.

The true lesson I take from the election results is about the way the European project is presented. The old way of speaking about a space of peace and stability is no longer attractive for the younger generations. We need to recreate the narrative about the importance of building a united political space of freedom and human rights, as well as a society that promotes economic development, equity and opportunities for all. That´s the kind of story we need to put together. That´s what the young Europeans want to hear. We are not the US, we are not Russia, nor China, we are part of a community of peoples that have decided that united we will be strong. And a bit different. As Europeans, of course. 

Africa Day

Busy with elections all over Europe, we tend to ignore that today is Africa Day.

We are also good at forgetting how important the EU-Africa partnership can become. 

The ways of the Cold War II

This year´s edition of the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, an annual event that aims at bringing together the Chief Executive Officers (CEO) of major world corporations, started last night with a grandiose nine-course banquet. This is an important event that the current state of affairs between Russia and the West has made even more significant. Therefore, the fact that seven of 12 key participants from the US have decided to cancel their participation cannot be ignored. For the US, more in their case than for the Europeans, the severing of as many economic relations with Russia as possible is the key response to President Putin´s policies towards Ukraine. This approach is considered in Washington as the best and most impactful way of undermining Russia. The new face of our modern day “Cold War” is above all about economic muscle and financial measures.  

EU games

The EU elections will bring a sort of a hung parliament without any clear majority on the right or left side of the assembly. Jean-Claude Juncker and Martin Schulz will be leading two parliamentary groups very similar in terms of number of seats won. No need to have a crystal ball to know that. The tiny difference between their respective groups will not be enough to decide who of the two will be the next President of the Commission.

In the case, the EU Council, which brings together heads of State and government, will have once again a major say in the selection of the new Commission boss. And there, Schulz will be in a serious situation of disadvantage. First, because of his nationality. Merkel does not seem prepared to have a strong German in Brussels. It would be a bit of a competition. Besides that, it would attract again too many attacks on Germany, particularly when new crises will emerge. And other countries might have also some difficulties in seeing a fellow from the top country in charge of the EU. For some people, the Commission should always be led by people from the smaller member States.

And that´s where Juncker might have an advantage.

But nothing is decided.

The British might think that politically, for their domestic political games, Juncker is the ideal candidate to say no to. He can be presented in the UK as being to European, too much for the Eurogroup. In the circumstances, to veto him could give some little mileage to Cameron. And Cameron will certainly need, after these elections, whatever little advantage he thinks he can grab.

Let´s be clear about the EU elections

The key call for this weekend´s European election is to vote for pro-EU candidates. At a time of uncertainty and big challenges, including widespread demagoguery, the European project would be under a critical threat if the ultra-nationalists and extremists were to get a sizeable percentage of seats at the new European Parliament.  

Modi as a major partner of Europe

It has been a bit of a mere footnote in the European media, but I think we have to pay greater attention to the political change that is taking place in India. Narendra Modi´s overwhelming electoral victory cannot be ignored. It is, in many ways, an expression of a new India that wants more economic development, concrete results in terms of improved living conditions, and less cronyism and paternalism. Congress Party had become too complacent and too distant from the daily concerns of the people. That´s why they have been voted out. Modi brings a powerful argument with him: the changes he has achieved in his own home State of Punjab. His challenge now is to be able to respond to the aspirations of the ordinary citizen. And also to be able to send a strong signal to the Muslim population. The Indian Muslims need to believe the new Prime Minister is there for all.

EU should engage the new government in Delhi soonest. At the highest level possible, from the European side. Europe has to see Modi and his team as essential partners. 

Ruse at play in Eastern Ukraine

We are again reminded that deception is a critical tool of war and conflict. You have to let your enemy believe he understands your intentions and plans. Then, you do something else.

That´s so much what is happening in Eastern Ukraine these days. 

Schulz and Juncker, the twin brothers

 As it gets closer to the EU parliamentary elections it is also clearer that the two main candidates for the top job of Commission President are just the opposite face of the same coin. There is no major difference, in terms of EU policies and choices, between Martin Schulz, from Germany and leader of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, meaning the social-democrat head, and Jean-Claude Juncker, from Luxembourg and the front name for the European People´s Party, the centre-right. Therefore, the question is more about personalities than anything else. Some people would find Schulz more attractive, they would say he might be more progressive, whatever that means in the case of these two men, others would say that Juncker has more experience. Between the two, it is obvious that Juncker is the one that has been around longer, that knows more when it comes to the business of government and also has been tested as the leader, for a very long period, of the finance ministers´ Eurogroup. That makes him a better candidate. But politics is a very complex field and competence is not always a criteria of success.

Boko Haram in Paris

Today´s summit on Boko Haram, convened at the Elysée Palace by President François Hollande, should be seen as a constructive initiative. 

The concrete results in terms of fighting the Nigerian terrorist group might be very tiny. But it had some other advantages.

 It kept the pressure on the President of Nigeria. President Goodluck Jonathan must take the issue with a greater degree of seriousness. 

It also showed that the countries in the region – particularly Cameroon and Chad – must be fully engaged and cooperate among themselves. This is lacking. Especially as it concerns Cameroon. North Cameroon – an area I know relatively well – is a forgotten region, when seen from the capital Yaoundé. This has to change. The Cameroonians have to increase their police and armed forces presence in the North. They have also to be prepared to cooperate with Nigeria and Chad. 

The summit has also emphasized that the problem requires international cooperation if it is to be tackled without further delay. France can certainly play a role on the French-speaking side of the region. The UK has to be more involved on the Nigerian side. And French and British intelligence services have to work hand in hand on the ground and be willing to treat the African counterparts as equals.

All this is a bit of an ambition. Not easy to achieve. But it has to be said. And the pressure has to go on.

We will see what progress will be reported as accomplished when the ministers meet for a follow-up conference next month in the UK. 

The coming EU elections

With a little bit more than a week to go before the next round of European elections, the popular enthusiasm is truly low. In many EU countries, the elections will be basically an exercise on abstention.

The lack of interest for this vote and the role played by anti-EU parties put the common project in a very dangerous path. More than ever, we are at a crossroads. More than ever, we need a serious bunch of European politicians that can talk to the people and be clear about the critical importance of a united Europe.

Are we going to get them elected?

Are those who speak for Europe numerous enough to make a difference?

Europe cannot lose the public opinion battle. 

Afghanistan beyond 2014

Still no agreement between the Afghan government and the coalition of countries that would be ready to provide security assistance to Afghanistan after ISAF´s closure at the end of this year.

This is a matter of concern. It is true that Afghan forces are today better prepared than before. But that might not be enough. Actually, the country continues to require international cooperation in matters of internal security. To believe otherwise would be a straight and short road to disaster.  

Ukraine and the election of the new UN Secretary-General

Have we thought that a collateral damage resulting from the Ukraine crisis is related to the election of the new UN Secretary-general? Up to now it was safe to believe that the new SG, to be elected in 2016, would be a senior figure from Eastern Europe. Now, with the tense situation that has developed between the West and Russia, it is very likely to see Moscow opposing a strong candidate coming from a former member of the Warsaw Pact. Or from a former USSR territory. That puts an end, I believe, to the ambitions some key figures in the Baltic States had been nurturing.

It also increases the chances of someone coming from a smaller Western State. And it gives a new breath of hope to UNDP´s boss, Helen Clark, a New Zealander that would love to be in charge. 

Ukraine and the financial markets

The international financial markets seem to be less nervous about the crisis in Ukraine. This is a bit surprising at a time when nobody knows what could happen next in the Eastern regions of the country.

My reading is that they take the new situation, including the potential separation of those lands from the rest of Ukraine, as a fait accompli, something that will happen in any case. The people behind the key financial funds, those who define the trends, have now had enough time to move moneys around and adjust to the new game in Eastern Europe. 

Africa´s Green Revolution

Africa needs a Green Revolution: a major transformation of the agricultural sector. The benefits of enabling this are multiple. Not only can this contribute to addressing the fuel deficit by offering a means to diversify and localize the production of fuel. It will also enhance food security and offers a wide range of livelihood opportunities to move poor subsistence-based farmers and their families out of poverty and into greater economic security. Here too, then, there is a need for a radical re-think: looking at agriculture as a potentially profitable business opportunity, not simply as an aid or development challenge that is only oriented to poverty mitigation.

Agricultural transformation in Africa

The Africa Progress Report 2014 has just been published and I recommend its reading. It is the flagship annual publication of the Geneva-based Africa Progress Panel (APP), a non-governmental institution that is led by former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan. APP is a key advocate for Africa´s inclusive and sustainable development.

This year´s report is about food and nutrition security. It is about farming and fishing with the poor at the centre of the policies.

And I quote from the report:

“Agriculture must be at the heart that transformation. Most Africans, including the vast majority of Africa’s poor, continue to live and work in rural areas, principally as smallholder farmers. In the absence of a flourishing agricultural sector, the majority of Africans will be cut adrift from the rising tide of prosperity.”

#BringBackOurGirls

The international campaign #BringBackOurGirls has had some impact on the Nigerian government. The President is finally moving. For about three weeks – and this bog has been one of the very first to call the attention to the terrible fate the school girls kidnapped by the Boko Haram terrorists were in – the country´s leadership tried to sweep the issue under the carpet. Now the outcry is too big to be ignored.

But a key question remains: how to explain the failure to protect these school children and the many civilians in the North-Eastern part of the country that are under constant threat? How can we understand this failure in a country that has a large army, good special forces and good intelligence? Who is giving a chance to Boko Haram to commit the horrendous crimes that are now their trademark? Who are the political backers of the terrorists and why? 

Europe´s future requires cooperation among the states

Le Monde printed this afternoon with tomorrow´s date has a very important opinion editorial by François Hollande about Europe´s future. The French President´s views are very clear: the continuation of the common European project means peace and will bring prosperity; on the contrary, the ultra-nationalism and the return to national borders carries with it the seeds of conflict among the different European nations; it is also a serious menace to the continuation of the common currency, which means a return to devalued and 

unstable national currencies; it is a move back to poverty and underdeveloped economies.

And the President shows he is very concerned with the current trends that run against Europe. The project cannot move if the people are not in support. And he sees that we are facing a serious risk that can easily undermine the survival of a joint aspiration and shared interests. He sees, with great concern, a continuing deterioration of the popular support to the Euro and the EU.

It is a good text. It should certainly be made available in other languages besides French. In the current atmosphere, when the nationalists are getting ground, it is critical to present a different view.

It is actually a very simple, and also very correct view. Europe needs to unite and cooperate better among its member states if it still aspires to play a role in the global world we live in. That´s the only reasonable way forward. The rest is just demagoguery. 

Lisbon and the cruise ships

Lisbon is now a major stop in the itinerary of the cruise ships that navigate this corner of Europe. At this time of the year, it is usual to see two or three big vessels by the tourist harbour. Today they were six, all very large.

This daily influx of visitors is bringing some much need vitality to the centre of the city, lots of people with some euros to spend. It also gives the key monumental areas a strong sense of economic dynamism. And that is deeply appreciated, particularly at a time when many Portuguese try to move out of a morose approach to the crisis and be able to access new sources of income. 

The UN in South Sudan needs teeth

John Kerry, who was visiting Luanda today, has shown he is deeply concerned with the crisis situation in South Sudan. The civil war is going on. It is even getting more violent, now that talks about talks between the two main opposing parties are being aired. For the Americans, South Sudan is important. The country has a large interest group in the US, particularly amongst the Christian fundamentalists. That´s politically relevant.

The UN mission in South Sudan – UNMISS – has been politically weak. And it has also lacked the strength and the will to have a more robust security role. It is time for the Americans to raise that matter with the UN Secretary-General. And to help the SG to find the right response to the weaknesses. It is not good for the UN´s image and work in the region to been seen as unable to have a stronger and clearer stance on the South Sudanese crisis. 

A paralyzed Council

The UN Security Council has finally “unanimously” adopted another Resolution. On 28 April. Unfortunately, it is not on Ukraine, not even on Syria. It might however show that the Council is still alive.

The Resolution 2151 (2014) is on Security Sector Reform, the role of the UN in its implementation and the need for national ownership of the process.

I read it. It adds nothing to the debate. It states in grandiose terms what the UN missions have been performing for the last eight years or so.

Is the Security Council becoming a bit like a debating society?

Odessa and OSCE

Odessa in Southern Ukraine is a very symbolic city. It means a lot for many people in that part of the world. It has a very rich history as well.

Today´s events, which led to many deaths of civilians on the pro-Russian side, could therefore be a turning point in the national crisis Ukraine is engulfed. They could give way to a serious escalation of the confrontations.

They are certainly an important development. But they cannot justify any armed intervention from outside the country. They call though for a deeper political involvement of OSCE.

The way forward is not very easy. It goes however through the deployment of a much larger contingent of OSCE observers and a renewed political initiative in Vienna where OSCE headquarters are based.

The UN Security Council cannot be of help. OSCE can. But it needs to be much bolder and much more assertive in terms of the European public opinion. 

May Day 2014

On this May Day, my point is very simple. It is about labour in a global world economy. Leaders should make globalization, which is an inescapable feature of present times, a positive factor for progress and transformation. They should not exploit the fears linked to globalization and use it as a flag to win votes from the working class. Globalization opens opportunities and it should be taken advantage of. People should be prepared and skills should be developed for a world without too many trade barriers. And EU should be at the vanguard of such an approach.