Putin´s ban list: forget!

The Russian government has issued a list with the names of those barred from travelling to Russia.

I have reviewed it with some detail. It is a mixed bag of second rate EU personalities, nothing more. It pulls together members of parliament, a few politicians, including local ones, another couple of opinion makers, and a handful of senior civil servants from different EU countries.

It is obviously a list to retaliate. Most of those on the list have little power to decide about the European relations with Moscow. They might be vocal, in a few cases, but I am not even sure the EU leaders listen to them.

The best approach to the Putin list is to ignore it. 

My wild neighbours

It is not easy to survive in the park next to my house. The wild birds have many enemies, including the crows and the neighbourhood cats, and the rabbits keep hiding from the dogs. I haven´t seen many rabbits this spring, by the way.

Even the ducks, who are always ready for a fight, have their own problems. This year, meaning now, this is the season, only one couple has been able to bring a single duckling to life.

In view of this, you can imagine my joy when I saw this morning that the moorhen – also known as the swamp hen – that had been sitting on her eggs for many weeks in the middle of pond was now proudly looking after a brood of four little chicks.

I had feared the local turtles had eaten the eggs before hatching. It did not happen. And I thought that in the end, there is always a small victory on the side of renewal.

Blatter is no fool, Mugabe would say

Sepp Blatter got a new term as president of FIFA. His victory made me recall a comment another life leader shared with me over a decade ago. I was at the end of my assignment in Zimbabwe, ready to go to West Africa. I had then a final meeting with President Robert Mugabe to take leave from him and his country, after four years of work and many encounters. As we reviewed the African scene, as it was at the time, he said – I can´t remember whom he was referring to – that an incumbent president that loses the elections has to be a fool.

Now, Blatter has shown that he can be accused of many things but that nobody is in a position to say he is a fool. 

The ugly face of FIFA

In addition to everything that has already been said by many in the media about the corruption scandal at FIFA, I would add a little question tonight: how can the Swiss authorities explain their want of investigative action against the FIFA´s leadership?

It is a bit difficult to see the US judicial system moving, and striking, and notice, at the same time, that there was no real investigation by the Swiss, notwithstanding the fact that this world football association has its headquarters in Switzerland.

I can´t believe the Swiss prosecutors were not aware of the strong stench coming from the FIFA building. 

Let´s be clear and respectful

In today´s world, when everyone has access to many sources of information and opinion, the leaders cannot continue to believe they will be able to deceive the population. Leadership is indeed about clarity and respect. And not too many words, because lengthy sentences can be seen as hiding places for deceit and weakness.

More on the strategy against the terrorists of the Islamic State

We usually emphasise that each national crisis should have a political response and end up with an agreement between the parties. In the case of Syria, it would be, at this stage, a serious mistake to insist on a political solution. The situation has reached such a dramatic level that the only way forward, for the moment, is through a military approach. Politics and diplomacy have to wait. They will come later.

The goals to be achieved are clear: to destroy the self-proclaimed Islamic State and protect the civilian population from further violence. These objectives do call for a major allied armed offensive and also for a change of tactics when it comes to the Assad regime.

On the military side, my writing of yesterday is clear. I can only add that we just have to make sure that those who will take the decision to go for the force option have the support of the popular opinion in their countries. And then ask those leaders to move fast.

On Assad, it is time to make a difference between the man and his people. The headman will have to go. The key criminals that have directly supported him must be brought to justice as well. But we need to find ways of bringing his ethnic group, the Alawites, and all those who are around the administrative and security machineries on board, on our side, as long as they have no real crimes in their hands. They should be part of the solution. If they are not they will be, soon enough, because Assad´s collapse is getting closer, the next mass victims of the brutes that only conceive death as the appropriate punishment  for those who are different.

It is indeed time to think strategically. And be strong.

Revise the strategy to destroy the Islamic State

The daily reports are clear. They point to a recent succession of military gains by the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS), both in Syria and Iraq. As I see it, that terrorist group is stronger today than some weeks back. Its ongoing offensives on different fronts show vitality which can only result from new resources, including fresh money and weapons as well as a mass of additional recruits.

The other side of the coin is about weakness. Those opposing IS are today weaker.

The moderate groups in both countries first. They are losing ground and credibility. They have demonstrated they do not have enough vigour to take care of this major challenge. More than ever it is now obvious they necessitate a great amount of external support.

The raids also show that the Western strategy against the terrorist organisation is not working. It has to be revised immediately. Its revision has to focus on a much stronger involvement in the region, through additional deployment of special force units and better coordination among them, more effective and better shared intelligence, and a closer alliance with the Middle Eastern States that oppose IS.

I recognise that a deeper military engagement in Iraq and Syria is a complex and costly matter. But political hesitation is no longer a solution in this case. Public opinion is prepared, in our part of the world, for a serious increase of our military assistance to those who can be our regional and local allies in this combat. We just have to ensure that the alliances are clear and strategic, meaning, they should aim, above everything all, at destroying the IS threat.

Rich and poor in Europe

Brusssels is number three in the EU in terms of income per capita. The data show that its residents’ income is twice the European average. Inner London and the Luxembourg Duchy are number one and two. The former –Inner London – is a pretty rich corner of Europe. The average Londoner has an income that is more than three times the European average. In Luxembourg, the equivalent figure is about 2.5 times.

Bulgaria and Romania, on the other hand, remain at the bottom of the list. They are indeed very poor countries by European standards. The gap between them and the top three is abysmal. And it keeps growing for now.

Criminal banking

Six major international banks have been fined by the US authorities over huge criminal manipulations of the foreign exchange markets. The banks caught in this huge fraud and well thought-out conspiracy to steal from the clients are: Barclays, Citigroup, JP Morgan, Royal Bank of Scotland, Union des Banques Suisses (UBS), and Bank of America. The overall fines amount to USD $5.6 billion.

Since 2008 a number of very serious malpractices and criminal actions have been uncovered in some international banks. The crisis and a closer scrutiny of the banking system have shown that many of these institutions have been unethical and unlawful. Violations of the law and the interests of the customers have been common practice. The Financial Times reports that in the last seven years banks have been fine over USD $160 billion because of their illegal activities.

It is a matter of huge concern. It is also a major worry that no top banking executive has yet faced a court of justice and be personally sanctioned with a prison term for his or her actions. The system fines the banks and lets the bankers enjoy their bonus. And by the way, the bonus paid during the last seven years or so by the banks the US has just punished come to a total very similar to the combined amount of today´s fines.

Europe in the Far East: a weekly review

My weekly commentary on Radio Macau, aired every Tuesday under the title of Magazine Europa, focused today on three topics: Greece and its immediate, and most pressing financial challenges; mass illegal immigration into the EU across the Mediterranean Sea routes; and educational success in East Asian countries and the lessons Europe´s education systems could draw from that part of the world. 

The topics show the image – and concerns – Europe projected during the last week in Macau and vicinity.

Greece is now against a tough rock

Greece´s financial situation is now reaching a breaking point. We might have a surprise in the coming week or so as it is abundantly clear that the public coffers are more or less dry. The State´s engine is now running on fumes, no longer on real fuel. The chances of agreement with its European creditors have become pretty remote. They still exist, it is true. But they seem very unlikely. 

If there is an agreement it will be in response to the surprise I anticipate, to a major default crisis, a precipitated reaction to tears and shouts. Drama first, spur-of-the-moment repairs afterwards.

The Pope´s decision on Palestine is very important

Pope Francis ‘gesture towards the Palestinian people and its President Mahmoud Abbas should be deeply appreciated. The Palestinian crisis is one of the most enduring and I see no solution in the horizon. But the duty of international leaders is to keep it front page. And contribute, by any peaceful way, to move the two-State agenda forward. No gesture is too small, all positive moves are important. 

The leadership of the "Islamic State" should be destroyed as quickly as possible

The operation that killed a key leader of the terrorist organization called “Islamic State” (IS) should be underlined as a major development. It shows in many ways that there is a new game in town, if we can say it with these words. It takes the fight against these terrorists to a new level: the direct involvement of US Special Forces. We know almost nothing about these extremely specialised branch of the American military. But the fact that they are on the ground against IS, operating from Iraq but ready to go across the border into Syria, can make us believe that the leadership of that brutal organisation will be sooner or later seriously weakened. The targets of the Special Forces are the very important people on the other side of the fence. We can only hope they will be able to do the job fast and cut the head of the monster soon enough.  

The Rohingya refugees need our support

The EU has no clear approach towards the “boat people”, the illegal immigrants that come across the Mediterranean Sea. The same should not be said about Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, when it comes to their “boat people”. These migrants are displaced populations coming from Myanmar. Many of them are from the Rohingya ethnic group, a marginalised Muslim population that lives in the Rakhine State of Myanmar, a coastal area near Bangladesh. In Southeast Asia the policy is clear: repair their boat, give them some food and water and push them to the sea. The results are shocking, of course. The images show the extreme misery of men, women and children, they capture distressing faces of punishing suffering.

We might criticise the European confused policy. But we should be loud and clear in our condemnation of the cruelty the Southeast nations are showing towards the Rohingya. And we should also add that the Rohingya meet all the criteria that define a refugee population. They should therefore be treated as such.

I don´t get it but I admire your ideas

Noam Chomsky, the old contrarian linguist and philosopher whose main ideas are about attacking every dimension of the US foreign policy – Chomsky is a US citizen, by the way -, is an idol of every self-respecting leftist intellectual in some parts of Europe. A few days ago he came to Lisbon to deliver a conference about the role of social sciences in today´s world. The auditorium was packed and some people had to follow the talk from an adjacent amphitheatre. The applause at the end of Chomsky´s long presentation was intense. Then, media people talked to the attendees, to get their impressions about the ideas they just heard. Many just confessed they had not understood Chomsky´s arguments. But they were amazed by the philosopher´s depth, knowledge and courage.

And I thought of that movie where the comedian Roberto Benigni said they were famous just because they were famous. No other reason was needed, no other explanation could be found. In this case, Chomsky for the Portuguese leftists is just great because they don´t understand what he is saying but he is against the establishment. That´s a reason good enough.

The interest for EU matters is growing in China

I just started my weekly commentary on Radio Macao. This is a new page, to be broadcast every Tuesday, on European affairs. Rui Flores, who has worked for the UN as a Political Officer and is a professional journalist, besides being an academic at the University of Macao, is the anchor – a very creative one for that matter – and I am the programme´s resident commentator. My role is to share my views on the week´s key European events.

The programme responds to a growing interest on the EU in China, Macao and Hong Kong.

China is about to celebrate 40 years of cooperation with the EU. Its leaders want it to expand and are ready to negotiate new political and trade agreements with the EU. They are giving a special attention to the new Silk Road project that should better link their country with Central Asia and Europe. Their ambition is as vast as their country and the needs of their very large population: 1,355 billion people. There is still a long way to go before the two parties sign a Free Trade Agreement. But, in the meantime, trade and investment are moving ahead, mainly for the benefit of the Chinese.

The fact of the matter is there are many common interests. Distance is big enough to keep rivalries at bay, but not too far for the ships and trains that bring goods in both directions. Actually, the train link is the future. And, as a future, it is already around the corner, as the first trains have started to move since the end of last year.

Political campaigning calls for simplicity and clarity

In politics it pays to have a clear message and to keep repeating it. It pays further if the message clearly underlines the difference between you and your opponents and makes the point about how important it is to vote for you. David Cameron got it and won. He also understood that the electorate wants it simple and focussed. No need for too many agendas, tonnes of ideas. It confuses the voter and pushes them away. 

Juncker at Leuven University: notes on his style

Jean-Claude Juncker gave a long talk last week about Europe at the old and famous Leuven University near Brussels.

He is a very experienced politician and the presentation just confirmed that. He has indeed been around for many years, he has seen many politicians, big and small. And he knows every detail about a good deal of matters.

But he seems to require some advice about his public speaking style. He addressed the audience in French, without caring about the fact that many in the room could not understand the language and that he had been asked to speak in English. Furthermore, during the question-and-answer time, his replies had a touch of arrogance that is not helpful. In the end, arrogance – even if it is only over-confidence – can actually be damaging.

He also looks older than his age and a bit tired for the job.

Can anyone in his circle help him to look into these matters?

Europe: a call for dialogue

I am certainly very impressed by the Moscow parade and rally on this Victory Day, which is also Europe´s Day. But in the end, this should be a day to call for renewed dialogue and cooperation between Russia and our part of Europe. If we really want to honour all those who lost their lives during the last big war in Europe, we should pledge a new and strong commitment to peace and mutual respect. 

The EU voters are looking for predictability and security

A detailed analysis of David Cameron´s electoral victory teaches us a few political lessons. Paramount among them is the one related to predictability. In the UK and in many other corners of the EU, the citizen is ready to support the leader that is perceived as the best provider of stability and security, including economic security. The Europeans, after so many years of a deep economic crisis and many bits and pieces of bad news coming from other parts of the world not too far from our Continent, are unsettled. They feel their well-being and the many advantages they have acquired during the last decades are under threat. They tend then to be conservative and anxious to elect a leader that is seen as steady, strong and risk averse.

UK elections bring bad news to the EU

The initial exit polls show that David Cameron will continue to lead the UK as Prime Minister. If this is indeed confirmed, it will be challenging news for the EU project. Cameron will have to go ahead with the referendum on Europe, as promised. Such vote will not take place before the end of 2017. That would mean two years of uncertainty and serious British pressure on the EU institutions to try to force them to backpedal on a good number of decisions that have been adopted to promote greater coherence in Europe. These will certainly be two difficult years for those in Brussels and elsewhere who believe that Europe is by far the best option for a brighter future.

Immigration into Europe is a very delicate matter

It would certainly be a serious mistake to simplify the immigration issue in today´s Europe. The illegal crossings of the Mediterranean Sea are a complex matter and do require serious ponderation. Any simplification of it would certainly be very attractive to many minds but it would also be a serious mistake. There are many dimensions that need to be taken into account when defining an approach to such a large movement of people. And the debate is not paying attention to them, I am afraid. 

Germany is the power in the EU machinery

In all institutions it is important to analyse who are the power brokers, the people of real influence, or said differently, the ones that are at the centre of the most critical decisions and decisively influence the formal leaders ‘choices. In the case of the EU in Brussels, out of the five true powerful men –all five are men – three are German nationals. Guess who?

Human rights first

Human rights must remain the foundation of any society. People should be respected and the protection of poor and powerless people should take the primacy in any type of intervention. If we take such an approach as the guiding principle we have a safe political compass. People can then take care of their own lives and try their best to have a decent livelihood.

Everything that tries to circumvent a human-rights first policy is just the wrong way of doing things. At the UN, we have learned the importance of such a way of doing business. But we tend, from time to time, to forget it and be friendly with the wrong side of the problem. Good leadership is about keeping the focus on what we know is important.