The origin of power...

I spent some time yesterday afternoon visiting a small village in Central Portugal, not far from Pombal but in the municipality of Ansião. It is located about 185 km North of Lisbon and its name is Santiago da Guarda.

 In the middle of the village, there is part of an ancient Roman villa, very well preserved and worth the visit. The dwelling was a large one, around 1,300 square metres. Its size, the design and the quality of the tile floorings show clearly this house was then built for a very powerful family. And that´s particularly intriguing, as Santiago da Guarda is on a mountain in a region that could only be of interest, 16 or 17 centuries ago, for rearing small ruminants.

It is a fact we know little about the basis of political and economic power at the time. We know a bit more about today´s power basis, don´t we? 

The absolute and unique target should be the IS structures

In Syria and Iraq, the main goals are by far to bring peace and stability back as well as to endeavour for democracy and rule of law.

In the current circumstances, the achievement of such priorities passes by the destruction of the Islamic State. The neutralization of their command-and-control structure is the most urgent step, the overriding concern. Every alliance should be directed at fighting IS. Placing other groups in the bull´s-eye is a very serious political and strategic mistake.

We have to be clear about it. Among ourselves and vis-à-vis our friends and allies. 

One more thought on leadership

Nothing can be taken for granted any longer. Change happens pretty fast and even institutions and systems that looked pretty steady can find themselves under serious challenge. In this type of circumstances, one should always be willing to consider the unexpected and the absurd. That´s in many ways the new approach to leadership: to be able to imagine the unthinkable and have prepared the appropriate answers just in case it happens. 

Hungary and the immigration into the EU

Every passing week shows that the immigration issues are just getting worse in the EU. Hungary, for instance, has been on the news because of the decision to build a wall at the border with Serbia. The barrier should prevent, as much as it is possible, new immigrants from crossing into Hungary and from there moving into Austria, Germany or elsewhere into the richer corners of the EU.

Its construction has started.

We can criticise the decision, of course.

But above all it is an indication that there is no joint policy on immigration within Europe. And it also hides the facts. In 2013, Hungary received about 2 000 requests for asylum. Last year, the figure jumped to 43 000. And this year, it has already gone beyond 83 000. These figures alone give us a better understanding of the size of the problem. They should also be seen as part of the broader picture, meaning, we have in 2015 a true problem in our hands. And no common will to address it.

Turkey and the Kurdish question

The Turkish air raids against the IS terror group are very much welcome. However, the bombing of Kurdish positions in Northern Iraq, linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party, also known by its initials PKK, are provoking a serious disquiet within European circles. 

The EU does not see the PKK as a terrorist organization. It changed its position in 2008 and its current approach is to encourage both sides – the Ankara government and PKK – to find a political agreement to their conflict. This should lead to constitutional changes, including some degree of acceptance of the Kurdish people´s rights and Kurdistan as an autonomous entity within Turkey.

There has been a cease-fire since 2013. But that is now under serious risk of falling apart.

In the meantime, it has been announced that the NATO Council will meet on Tuesday at the request of Turkey to discuss IS and also PKK-related matters. It will be important to listen to Ankara´s views. And it would also be critical that such views take into account the opinions of Turkey´s allies.

Turkey has taken the right decisions

The most expected decision has finally been taken by the Turkish President. From now on, the US Air Force is allowed to make use of Turkey´s military airports to launch air raids against IS targets. This will increase the operational capacity of the American planes as the flying distances become much shorter for missions related to Syria.

In addition, President Erdogan has also authorised his own air force to target IS infrastructure in Syria. This is also a very critical decision. If it is properly implemented, it will add a good amount of pressure on the terrorist group.

In the meantime, the neutralization of IS top fighters has gained a new pace. That approach is certainly the most effective way of degrading the capacity of the organization. It requires, however, a new level of intelligence exchange between the allied forces. Particularly a much stronger determination to share from the Turkish side. 

Diversity is a new feature within the EU

Immigration keeps changing the face of Europe. Even in this corner of the EU called Portugal. We have now people that have come from other countries within the EU as well as people that travelled to us from afar. Every day I discover, in the vicinity of my residence, someone that came from a foreign land to work in Portugal.

This is a new reality and people have adjusted to it, in some countries better than in others. But there are serious risks of violent rejection as well.

In the end, the bottom line is about respect and tolerance. Mutual tolerance, of course, from both sides. And also about making sure that opportunistic politicians do not take advantage of immigration issues to create societal divisions and conflicts. They are actually the greatest danger in societies that have a good number of immigrants. 

Against the national extremism within the EU

Ultranationalist sentiments are again threatening the European Union project. And the main stream political parties, in the member states, are not brave enough to fight this trend. They make the mistake of believing that by being silent about extreme nationalism this populist ideology will not gain further ground and will fade away. They also believe that by playing a moderate nationalistic approach they can cut the grass under the feet of the extremist movements. That´s also a very serious political blunder. It does not stop the populists and at the same time it moves the centrist parties closer to xenophobic positions. This is what´s happening these days, in so many parts of the EU.

The solution is very clear: one has to denounce the ultranationalism as an ignominy and also as the cause of deep conflicts in Europe. It is a ghost from the past that no-one needs to resuscitate or should allow to be perceived as the way forward. It is an ideological combat that has to mobilize everyone, not just the elites. 

Somalia is out of the international radar

I was in contact today with a former UN colleague who is now serving in Somalia. And I became deeply worried, as we reviewed the situation in the country.

Al-Shabaab, the terrorist organization that operates in Somalia, remains a major threat. As the situation deteriorates once again, the soldiers from the AU expeditionary force are paying a very heavy toll. They are in Somalia, with a UN-supported mandated, to help in restoring peace but they are the target of repeated vicious attacks. Many African soldiers – recently the Burundians and the Ethiopians lost a good number of military personnel – have been killed. The UN staff, who are basically confined to their compound at the airport, are also in very serious danger.

There is no hope in the air once more.

Somalia is one of those forgotten conflicts that the international community keeps out of the radar. It is out of the news, because it is in many ways an unmanageable and unsolvable conflict. It is also less important for the world powers at present because the piracy issue has been successfully addressed. Therefore, the country is no longer a menace for the interests that matter and its unmeasurable drama can obviously be relegated to a darker corner at the end of the list of priorities. 

Happy to see the US and Cuba back on the diplomatic arena

The US and Cuba are back in the diplomatic business. The embassies are now open and the normalisation process keeps moving in the right direction. That´s good news. The next step ought to be the end of the American embargo against Cuba. It makes no sense to keep it. On the contrary, its lifting has a big chance of contributing to a faster transformation of the Cuban society and politics. My voice joins therefore all the others that call for an end of the sanctions in the very near future. 

Two additional questions about the Middle East

After the agreement on Iran´s nuclear programme, there are two additional questions related to the Middle East that should receive the same amount of attention. They are both related to peace and security in the region. As such, they are vital for a geopolitical space that has known decades of conflict and remains the major focus of international instability.

One of those questions is about fighting violence. What can the UN Security Council and the countries of the region do to bring peace to Syria and Iraq as well as to Yemen? In different words, can we launch a regional conference on peace and security in the Middle East? This is a very central question. It has to be raised and we have to call on the international leaders to take up their responsibilities and dare to initiate such a process.

It cannot be just about peace in country A or B. In this very volatile part of the world we need to look at the future from a regional perspective. The country by country approach has a very limited impact.

The second question is about the Palestinian crisis. The Quartet is not producing any tangible results. The Palestinian issue is just not being properly addressed. We need to ask ourselves what can be done to change the trend and be in a position to initiate a true process that can lead to a durable solution. 

Here, I see a much greater role for the EU. The EU should take the lead. And it has a chance to do it, now that Tony Blair has moved out of the picture. It has also the moral responsibility, to compensate for all the years we have lost with Blair pretending to be around.

Moderation is essential at this stage of the EU affairs

The current political narrative within the EU is led by those with extremist views. The Greek crisis has in many ways contributed to a serious intellectual split. Many have taken the defence of the underdog and are expressing radical opinions against Northern Europe, in general terms, and more specifically towards Germany. This trend is certainly not the best to keep the EU together. It also undermines a tolerant approach to the cultural differences within Europe. It is actually the best way to foment prejudice and hatred.

I am certainly worried by this development.

It is time to show that Europe is still a worthwhile project. And that we are not at all at the deathbed of the common project. To start with, there is a need to better explain the reasons for the approach followed at the last Eurogroup summit. Many people have yet to understand its rationale. We cannot be blind to the damage ignorance causes. Particularly when, on the other side, many people are just adopting a very negative approach or being influenced by those who have an exalted, exaggerated, unrealistic opinion about these matters. 

Europe´s face cannot look tired

I have supported since the early days Jean-Claude Juncker as President of the European Commission. I know he has the experience and the courage required for such a tough job. But these days he looks tired and too thin-skinned, irritable. He should pay attention to that. Leaders, particularly at challenging times, should look as being in control, calm and refreshed.

The rentrée, after the summer break, will be particularly demanding for Europe. Greece will continue at the top of the list, side by side with the immigration issues, plus matters related to internal security and instability in North Africa and Middle East. To that already heavy list, one should add the policy matters raised by the very special political options of Viktor Orban in Hungary and Cameron´s exigencies in terms of reform, and also the need to re-open the dialogue with Russia.

This is a full agenda. It calls for leadership that projects strength, confidence and optimism. And those features have to be seen on the TV screens, when people like Juncker are talking to the media or to the EU Parliament.  They are the public faces of the Union. 

Spain is getting back on its feet

I just spent a good number of days travelling in the Andalusia Region, in Southern Spain. I saw once again a country full of dynamism. To me, all signs appeared to show that the economic recovery is firmly on its way. Business is moving up. This is certainly good news.

It is also true that people keep complaining about the cost of living, the scarcity of job opportunities and the high-handed taxation system. They are certainly right. Spain, like other EU countries, is putting too much pressure on the working people. They are the ones that finance a good deal of the recovery. They are the ones that get heavily taxed. And this should not be the case. 

Development matters

It´s time to bring the international debate back to the development issues. We cannot forget that there are still many men, women and children out there that need drinkable water, basic health, elementary education, real jobs and full respect for their human rights. But we tend to put that reality aside and just focus on two or three current affairs matters. Greece, for instance, has taken so much of our attention. We did not lose sight of the Greeks ´ situation but we lost sight of the misery and despair that make the daily life of more than two billion people in many parts of the world. It is time to be reasonable again and also to regain a sense of the proportions. 

Iran´s nuclear accord

The nuclear agreement with Iran has been reached after nine years of negotiations.

During the last stage of the discussions, the discussions were carried out by the Foreign Ministers themselves. And as we look at them sitting around the table for so many months and incredibly long hours, we can only say that they represent the elite in terms of knowledge and capacity to understand the importance of such a deal for the world of today and tomorrow.

We should therefore trust their judgement and recognise this accord has to be a good thing for peace and security in the Middle East. The parties to the agreement deserve our trust and our support. 

The Eurogroup has to take a decision that is clear

The Eurogroup meeting of finance ministers is still on at the very end of this evening. It has been a long meeting. And also a very tense discussion, from what I can understand at this stage. All this shows that the EU is confronted with a very serious crisis that has a major impact on Greece, of course, but also on the rest of euro zone countries.

It is time to be very balanced and to think positively. It is also time to be very clear, in one direction or the other.

Major crisis are complex matters, difficult to decide upon, but at the same time they call for clarity. People want to know the direction things will take.

Politics is about opting. And in the case of a grave situation is also about making sure that whatever is decided is the most reasonable approach, among a choice of options that are all rather painful. 

Spain: difficult times and the people´s response

Life is today more challenging for many Spaniards. These have been difficult years and a long period of painful adjustment processes. But it is also amazing to see how people have accepted the changes and how they are trying to cope with lower levels of income and higher levels of unemployment. That does not mean they have accepted the new situation. But they have kept a very healthy level of pragmatism. 

BRICS and the cyber disputes

As the BRICS summit comes to an end, one could see that “internet governance” was a major issue very much present in the informal discussions. 

Russia is particularly concerned by the fact that the Domain Name System (DNS) is entirely managed by the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN. This Corporation is a US-based entity and it therefore follows the North-American legal rules. For Vladimir Putin this is seen as a strategic risk. 

He was very much counting on India´s support to gradually create an alternative system, but Prime Minister Modi is not ready for a move that would jeopardise his relations with Washington. India wants to be a key player in the world´s digital economy but in very clear terms: India sees itself as a service centre for customers all over the planet. And they know that the US can become the most important market for the Indian expertise.

The BRICS summit

Today´s BRICS summit has more or less escaped the attention of the mainstream media. It is true that a meeting in Ufa, a far-flung city in the middle of vast Russian steppe, is not easy to cover. But it is also true that Greece and the Chinese stock exchange crisis are taking a lot of headline space. And they are much easier for international reporters to access.

Within the BRICS, the trend is for a deepening of the economic cooperation between the three big ones: China, India and Russia. These countries, contrary to Brazil and South Africa, can take advantage of their geographic proximity. Their political relations are also rather friendly and that adds leverage to their economic exchanges.

Besides that, one should recognise that every one of these five countries have the same concern: they want to get a stronger voice in international affairs. And that´s the cement that brings them together. 

One very last chance?

Greece was told tonight three things: one, they have to come up with a detailed and implementable financial reform programme; two, the European Commission has already prepared a contingency plan in case Greece leaves the euro zone; and third, their new policy reform proposal has to be ready for a careful analysis by the Euro group by Thursday, in view of the EU extraordinary summit called for Sunday, 12 July.

All in all, this sounds like the final leg of a very confusing process. A deadline.

The major risk, besides the one related to missing the deadline, is related to a possible split within the EU. Some countries might go one way and others adopt a different direction. That has to be avoided at any cost.

As we have to prevent any decision that takes flexibility beyond the reasonable enactment of the rules. The rules are essential for the survival of the union.

The risks of a political earthquake in Shanghai

The Shanghai Stock Exchange lost more than 25% of its value in the last three weeks. This is a major shock. If this trend continues the situation will develop into mass panic – many very small investors had borrowed money in the recent past to invest in the Shanghai bourse. It is therefore a major political issue for the authorities in Beijing. They have shown signs of serious concern. Action will be taken in the next few days, for sure. We should observe with great attention the measures they will put in place to respond to the matter. 

On Greece´s next steps

We should congratulate Alexis Tsipras this evening. The Greek voters have shown they unmistakably support him and his approach to country´s debt issue.

Now Tsipras has to come up with a clear negotiating position. It has to be on the Euro group tables by tomorrow. There is urgency. And it is also very urgent to show that there is a way forward.

The proposal has to come from the Greek side. And be ready for a decision to be taken on Tuesday evening, when the Euro group leaders meet in Brussels.

These are indeed extraordinary times. They call for very clear commitments and well defined boundaries. Indecision and vagueness are key risks to avoid. As one has to avoid to be trapped by personal likes and dislikes. We might not like the other side, but we have to sit with him and talk in a very frank and constructive way. 

Celebrating the US big day

US Independence Day: time to salute all my American friends and to reiterate that the alliance between Europe and North America is critically important for both sides. And one way of showing it passes through the strengthening of the European side. A stronger Europe makes the alliance more solid. We tend to forget this dimension of the cooperation. Therefore, let me take advantage of the day to evoke it.

Young radicals for political reasons

Malek Boutih is a French Member of the National Assembly. His family roots can be found in North Africa and in the Islam. 

At the request of Manuel Valls, the Prime Minister of France, Boutih as looked at the radicalisation of the French youth. After four months of interviews and consultations, he has just issued his report. He called it “Géneration Radicale” and indeed the key point he makes is that many among the French youth are indeed attracted by a radical approach to politics and social engagement. Boutih´s main conclusion is that the extremism the young people espouse is basically a political response – and not a religious option. The extremists see no room for them in the French society, have no hope of a better life, feel they do not belong –notwithstanding they are second or third generation French nationals, as children and grandchildren of North African former immigrants – and then they look elsewhere. They end up by seeing violence as a means to be heard and a way of gaining the protagonism that an European society will never afford them.

The report is worth noting. And the key reading is that Western European societies have to be prepared to respond, in a comprehensive, multifaceted manner to the radical challenge. This is not a temporary problem. It is something that has now deep roots in our societies. It requires top attention.

Greece: Fast running towards the abyss

The Greek crisis is now getting to the breaking point. Businesses are just closing their doors as they have little or no access to financial resources. Payments to external suppliers are becoming almost impossible. Domestic payments are just paper payments, no real cash is moving around.

Four days without an operational banking system has a major impact on the economy in a developed country.

And I do not see the banks being able to re-open on Tuesday, as the government wants us to believe. People have lost most of their confidence in the financial institutions and are desperate to take out of the system whatever little money they still have in their accounts.

We are running fast against the wall.

And we do not seem to be aware of it.

We just take the days as normal days in a country that can no longer afford to run as usual. The government needs to take exceptional measures. And I do not see the current leadership being able to do it. For whatever reason, they seem to believe that everything will be much easier after the referendum. Or, the referendum is three days away in a country that needs decisions now. 

Puerto Rico´s money problems

Today we should look elsewhere. To the US, for instance as we get the news that Puerto Rico is also broke. The public debt is around USD 72 billion and the territory’s government is in no position to honour it. Default is around the corner. But it looks manageable as debt represents only 70% of nominal GDP. In any case, it will end up by causing some losses for those who have placed money in public bonds. That´s what they mean by “manageable”: the State borrows and with time the private citizens get a serious haircut.